Really unsure about this one

[Chaos_ult]

This seems like it should be a basic math problem, yet i'm really not sure how to handle it. Can someone please explain it in plain english for me? Thanks

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
5 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $77.05
CO: $50
Hero: $67.65
SB: $162.20
BB: $37.15

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is Button with T/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/spade.gif
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises to $2</font>, Hero calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($8, 4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, CO checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $7</font>, SB folds, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises to $29</font>, CO folds, Hero folds.
Uncalled bets: $22 returned to BB.

Results:
Final pot: $22

Notice villain left himself about 6 dollars after his flop raise

[Jigsaws]

Check flop.

I'm not the one to explain pot odds well, but there's $44 in the pot, and it's $22 to call. So you're getting 2 to 1, with most likely 9 outs (sometimes 12, sometimes 7). Which means you're about 35% to make your hand. That means this is very close with the current bet, but if you add the $7 he has behind, it's a fold.

[ymu]

The maths depends on reads - what hands could/would he play like this?

There's 8+7+7 = $22 in the pot by the time he calls your initial bet, and $44 in there when you have to call his $22 raise - so you're getting 2:1 (you need at least 33% equity), which is just about enough if you were going to see 2 cards for free and he has a pair/baby flush as often as he has a set.

He has $6 behind which is probably going in no matter what, so you're effectively calling $28 to win $50 which makes it a bit closer. You need 36% equity - which is about the same as your chance of making a flush.

If his range doesn't include single pairs/overpairs - it's a fold. If he could play 99+ like this, it's a call.

Board: 7s 8s 3s

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 59.4077 % 59.35% 00.06% { 77+, 33, Ts9s, 87s, 6s5s }
Hand 2: 40.5923 % 40.53% 00.06% { AsTh }

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 70.4040 % 70.40% 00.00% { 88-77, 33, Ts9s, 87s, 6s5s }
Hand 2: 29.5960 % 29.60% 00.00% { AsTh }

[Chaos_ult]

Okay. This is what I figured.

Didn't think he'd do this with an overpair, so basically I was up against a set, two pair, or a made flush.

I know my draw is about 2-1 to come in by the river, but with him having money behind I thought this was a pretty easy fold given his suspected range.

Thanks for clarifying guys

[ymu]

Sorry - messed up the ranges on the earlier post (forgot the smaller flushes).

If he's not doing this with an overpair:

Board: 7s 8s 3s

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 65.6719 % 65.67% 00.00% { 99-77, 33, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, Ks9s, QsJs, QsTs, JsTs, Ts9s, 87s, 6s5s, 87o }
Hand 2: 34.3281 % 34.33% 00.00% { AsTh }

If he could be:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 61.2972 % 61.25% 00.05% { 77+, 33, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, Ks9s, QsJs, QsTs, JsTs, Ts9s, 87s, 6s5s, 87o }
Hand 2: 38.7028 % 38.65% 00.05% { AsTh }


So it is kind of close if he could overplay a one pair hand like this occasionally - maybe against a very aggro/bluffy opponent, or one who'd flat call QQ+ in the blinds and then overplay them on this flop - but it's probably not worth the risk in most cases.

I guess if you think it might be around breakeven against a given opponent, call or fold depends on what you want to do to your table image. Folding might make you look weak tight, or if you've been aggro like you were bluffing *again*. Calling might discourage people from bluffing you in future, or it might make them value bet the hell out of you if they think you're on a draw - which is good if you rarely are on a draw.