25NL, deep enough for pure set value call?

[Tomke]

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
5 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
Hero: $36.90
CO: $43.77
Button: $7.77
SB: $27.37
BB: $27.05

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is UTG with 4/images/graemlins/club.gif 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $1</font>, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises to $3</font>, 3 folds, Hero ???

Who of you are calling this, given we're ~150BB deep? When calculating, what is the estimated chance of stacking when we hit?

Edit: oh I forgot, villain is 21/8/1.5

[kabouter]

you are risking $2 to win $33
You have 2 outs, 2 to 46 to win.., the question is if you can stack him though, and if he doesn't hit his Q,K,A. i would fold this one.

[Sir Winalot]

Easy call

Edit. I would call this with 100bb stacks too.

Double-edit. [ QUOTE ]
You have 2 outs, 2 to 46 to win

[/ QUOTE ]
The chanses of floping a set is 8 to 1.

[pokerchap]

yeah pretty standard call.

[ymu]

Easy call. You need to be able to make back 10x your call on average (you'll hit the flop 1 in 8 times, but still be outdrawn some of these times). You can make up to 17x here.

If he's very weak tight - or perceives you as weak tight - and therefore won't pay you off as often, there might be a bit of a question mark, but I'm never folding this.

[ymu]

[ QUOTE ]
you are risking $2 to win $33
You have 2 outs, 2 to 46 to win.., the question is if you can stack him though, and if he doesn't hit his Q,K,A. i would fold this one.


[/ QUOTE ]
There are 50 unseen cards. You have 2 outs three times on the flop. Your chances of not hitting a 4 on the first card are 48/50 - on the second 47/49 and on the third 46/48. The chance that all three of these things happen (ie you don't hit your set on the flop) is (48/50)*(47/49)*(46/48) = 88.2%. Thus you hit your set on the flop 11.8% of the time - or about 1 in 8.5.

If you can safely assume that he doesn't have a 4 in his hand, we have fewer unseen cards in the denominator and the chances get slightly better. The odds of hitting a set also improve with the likelihood that he checks behind on the flop, as we then get to see 4 cards. So the more trappy/passive he is, the better.

[Dennisa]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy call

Edit. I would call this with 100bb stacks too.

Double-edit. [ QUOTE ]
You have 2 outs, 2 to 46 to win

[/ QUOTE ]
The chanses of floping a set is 8 to 1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Plus their are chances of winning this unimproved in a head s up pot also help.