NL 50, TPTK on crappy paired board

[soberforlife]

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
5 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is BB with :ah :kh
UTG folds, CO raises to $1.75</font>, 2 folds, Hero raises to $5</font>, CO calls.

Flop: :kc :5d :5c ($10.25, 2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks.

Turn: :6h ($10.25, 2 players)
Hero bets $5</font>, CO calls.

River: :2d ($20.25, 2 players)
Hero bets $10</font>, CO raises all-in $78.55

Hero ?
CO is 16/8/.25, with no other reads

(sory about the crappy conversion btw)

[kokiri]

do you cover villain?

PFR of 8 over how many hands?

you can always clean up the convert manually

[soberforlife]

Sorry forgot to add that info:
-Stats from approx. 100 hands
-I started the hand with $65, so the all-in bet was basically for $45

[soberforlife]

i screwed up this post before, but included some more info the second time around...anyone got a chance to look this over?

[Wu36]

Looks like you gotta fold, but I don't like how you played it.

[kokiri]

Wu, what do you put the villain on?

i don't like the flop check. if i'm playing small pot poker (though i'm not if i reraise pf) i prefer a CB/turn check sequence.

The way you have played he could be betting for value with JJ QQ possibly a lower PP. The pot is $85 and it's $45 to call right? With a PFR of 8, he's likely to be quite tight out of the CO. Up to the river, i would say that a PP looks most likely and any PP is possible but admittedly i think a flat call on the river would be more likely than a push with a non-set PP.

However... If you say his range is JJ+, 55, 66, 22, AK, then your equity is over 50%. If you say that the only worse hand he could have is QQ, and he doesn't have AK, then its still EV neutral.

I think you have to call. To make it a fold, you have to give the villain credit for holding something like 5x which seems unlikely, no?

[michaelantoi]

i'm betting that flop and the turn.

you're weak by checking that flop.

he might think you're week and making a play.

Either way you cant put him on a hand because you didn't lead out the flop.

[soberforlife]

I checked the flop with the intention of getting him to make a play (by repin' a weaker pp like 1010-qq) with a weaker hand (kq, qq, etc.) on either the flop or future streets...my initial plan was to check raise on the flop....given his pre-flop stats the only hand i could put him on (based on the post-flop play) that would beat me is aa or kk; which i doubted that he had due to no 4-bet pre-flop...sadly he did have kk

[lacrymosa]

I bet 3/4 pot on the flop, and bet more on the turn. I would then c/c a decent bet on the river. No good?

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
you're weak by checking that flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
he might think you're weak and making a play.

[/ QUOTE ]


You need to think about the two things you typed above.