NL 25, nut flush with paired board

[soberforlife]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP ($82.95)
CO ($5.25)
Hero ($35.70)
SB ($24.85)
BB ($44.55)
UTG ($24.15)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $1</font>, CO calls $1, Hero calls $1, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: ($3.35) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP bets $0.75</font>, CO folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $3</font>, MP calls $2.25.

Turn: ($9.35) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $6</font>, MP calls $6.

River: ($21.35) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

MP pushes all in for $72.45, Hero ?
-MP is approx 50/25/1 after 40 hands; no other reads

[Sir Winalot]

Insta-call.

[soberforlife]

Do you play the flop or river any diff than what I did?

[littlebu]

calls and takes all his monies

[kokiri]

so it's really a $25 bet into a $20 pot, rather than $70+.

You're getting decent odds to call, but I have to confess (and usually I'm a calling station/fish) I struggle to put him on a hand here. If we're calling, what do we expect to see?

[Boredom]

[ QUOTE ]
so it's really a $25 bet into a $20 pot, rather than $70+.

You're getting decent odds to call, but I have to confess (and usually I'm a calling station/fish) I struggle to put him on a hand here. If we're calling, what do we expect to see?

[/ QUOTE ]

Taking into account villain is playing 50% of his hands and is probably a donk, and is LAG at best, I'd figure we'll see worse flushes, Jx, and probably some bluffs here decently often, way more than the about 30% we need to to make the call profitable.

[kokiri]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
so it's really a $25 bet into a $20 pot, rather than $70+.

You're getting decent odds to call, but I have to confess (and usually I'm a calling station/fish) I struggle to put him on a hand here. If we're calling, what do we expect to see?

[/ QUOTE ]

Taking into account villain is playing 50% of his hands and is probably a donk, and is LAG at best, I'd figure we'll see worse flushes, Jx, and probably some bluffs here decently often, way more than the about 30% we need to to make the call profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmm I'm never so sure that a high VPIP preflop == crap post flop. Plus 40 hands is not that many and he's raising 25% not 50%.

I agree with Jx, but this looks like a kinda funy way to play a flush to me. The turn check call looks like a strong hand, but the river push doesn't scream weak flush to me. AA, KK are possible though i would say

I guess the odds predicate a call, but I don;t like doing it and my spider sense is tingling and saying QJ to me...?

[Boredom]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
so it's really a $25 bet into a $20 pot, rather than $70+.

You're getting decent odds to call, but I have to confess (and usually I'm a calling station/fish) I struggle to put him on a hand here. If we're calling, what do we expect to see?

[/ QUOTE ]

Taking into account villain is playing 50% of his hands and is probably a donk, and is LAG at best, I'd figure we'll see worse flushes, Jx, and probably some bluffs here decently often, way more than the about 30% we need to to make the call profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmm I'm never so sure that a high VPIP preflop == crap post flop. Plus 40 hands is not that many and he's raising 25% not 50%.

I agree with Jx, but this looks like a kinda funy way to play a flush to me. The turn check call looks like a strong hand, but the river push doesn't scream weak flush to me. AA, KK are possible though i would say

I guess the odds predicate a call, but I don;t like doing it and my spider sense is tingling and saying QJ to me...?

[/ QUOTE ]

Does hero's line look like a flush (or better) to you? Perhaps a better question is does it look like one to the average 25/50 player? In my mind the answer is a definite no, making it a spot where I think an aggro player with a weak flush might very well decide there is value, with just a PSB left, against "a jack". For the same reason I think villain could decide to play AJ like this as well, though he obviously doesn't have the As so c-calling turn/leading river would be a bit strange. KsJx I think you will also see played like this.

And I see this weak flop lead-call all the time with flush draws, terrible as it is. For the record, I think if hero lost, it was to QQ not Jx that boated up. Interested to see the results on this one.

[soberforlife]

Results:
Hero calls
CO shows J5 off
Hero cries himself to sleep