better 3 of a kind than mine on flop?

[smbruin22]

hey everyone,

i love this forum and appreciate how helpful everyone is.

was wondering this. assuming i play 88 (could be any pocket pair, but then different answer) and that i hit 8 on the flop, what are the odds someone flopped better set? (not sure of trips vs. set, but i'm talking pocket pair plus on one the board.

here's my analysis (but i'm missing one key piece of info)

for a pair of 88's, there are 6 better pairs and 6 worse pairs, so 50%/50% as to whether you'll be losing to their 3 of kind.

then they have to hit their card, given that you hit one card, they have two chances, so 1/24 times 2 (very simple). so 8.5%.

then i need to know either the chance someone has pocket pair or chance of two pairs (leave it at two)... i don't know these #'s..... is 1/13 times 10 close enough??

so, 50% x 10/13 x 8.5% = rough chance my 3 of a kind is beaten....so 3.3% chance someone has higher 3 of a kind. the reason i ask is that hitting 3 of a kind seems like the real big moment in no-limit.

a whole bunch of ways my #'s are off. and of course, people might not play 22 and people will raise KK, so you might want to narrow assumptions.

really not sure about the 10/13 (now realize 9/13 as chance others have pocket pair or expected #, also, there could be 2 or 3 pocket pairs (but then they'd be competing for the two cards on the flop)

sorry for the long-windedness. just want to know assuming XX pair, what are odds that another 3 of a kind beats me on flop? (could even get ambitious and throw in a pair coming on the flop with your card, but unlikely and very complex).

thanks in advance!!

[Indiana]

Set over set is such a long shot that you should be spending your time thinking about other stuff. Yes, you will eventually run into it if you play long enough, but you cannot fear such a scenario and still be a great player. The odds are something like over 160:1 against just so you know.

Indy

[smbruin22]

[ QUOTE ]
Set over set is such a long shot that you should be spending your time thinking about other stuff. Yes, you will eventually run into it if you play long enough, but you cannot fear such a scenario and still be a great player. The odds are something like over 160:1 against just so you know.

Indy

[/ QUOTE ]

indiana, basically i agree and i do think you can't be afraid to lose in no-limit. otherwise you won't win as much as you should.

however, here are the percentages i came up with in terms of someone flopping a higher 3 of a kind from a pocket pair (assumes that everyone plays every pocket pair dealt to them).

odds of higher flopped 3 of a kind
2 5.8%
3 5.3%
4 4.8%
5 4.3%
6 3.8%
7 3.4%
8 2.9%
9 2.4%
10 1.9%
J 1.4%
Q 1.0%
K 0.5%
A 0.0%

so i think you want to be a little bit careful with the lower pairs (Which is just common sense). and as i said, it requires tons of assumptions (i.e. you may have a clue as to others hands from the pre-flop). and there's other dangers to 3 of a kind.

indy, thanks again!!