QQ - Worth going broke with an overpair?

[kidpokeher]

You raise QQ 4x from early position and get two callers.
The flop comes JT6 rainbow.
You make a standard cbet, 2/3-3/4 pot.
The first guy folds, the second pushes all in.

Call this?


I ran the numbers in Pokerstove with what I would consider villain to have to shove. I only removed AA as I would expect a reraise preflop. These were the results:

Board: Jd 6h Tc
Dead:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 61.7670 % 61.30% 00.47% { QdQh }
Hand 2: 38.2330 % 37.76% 00.47% { KK, JJ-TT, 66, AQs+, AsJs, KJs+, QJs, AJo+, KJo+, QJo }


It may be asking a lot to put villain on a shove with KJ or QJ, so removing those from the equation gets these results:
Board: Jd 6h Tc
Dead:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 55.1506 % 54.78% 00.37% { QdQh }
Hand 2: 44.8494 % 44.48% 00.37% { KK, JJ-TT, 66, AQs+, AsJs, KQs, AJo+, KQo }


In both cases I'm ahead of the range, yet why does my gut tell me this is not a good idea? Seems I'm always shown a set or at the very least AA or KK in these situations. Your thoughts?

[Imrahil]

I usually never fold overpairs postflop in a sit. like this.

[acidca]

Because your ranges are too wide and don't take into account that AA will usually shove whereas AQs usually won't.

[thac]

Uh, your range seems a bit wide. I think the only things shoving here are KK-AA, JTs, and a set. I think he has JTs a lot here, and if you're lucky KQ or 98 for a semibluff.

[ImprovinNewbie]

i know you;re an old hand but without stack sizes this is hard to figger.

[Tien]

INSTAAAA CALLLLLLL

[Dennisa]

I think I am far more pessimistic than you are. I come up with this range, and see you crushed most of the time.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

36,630 games 0.094 secs 389,680 games/sec

Board: Jd 6h Tc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 34.1824 % 32.57% 01.61% { QdQh }
Hand 2: 65.8176 % 64.20% 01.61% { KK-TT, 66, KQs, JTs, 98s, KQo, JTo }

unless you are up against a total donk, I dont see that many check raising all in with just top pair.

Also you did not put jt or jts in your original range.

[kokiri]

depends on stacks size, obviously. And reads as well. To never go broke with 100bb and an overpair/tptk is pretty nitty, to always go broke is pretty poor, too.
i probably call, but frankly i prefer to play 1 table and try to get reads on an opponent than play 4 tables of identakit poker so the situation would hopefulluy never come up in a vacuum. First hand of a session, meh, call and reload.

[Speedlimits]

I fold this.

Been playing QQ very conservatively and liking it.

[kokiri]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold this.

Been playing QQ very conservatively and liking it.

[/ QUOTE ]

maybe, but just because you go broke less, doesn't mean that net net, you're not leaving money on the table cos you miss out on free money too. playing tight feels smarter than playing loose, but if it feels comfortable, i figure it's probably not maximising EV.

[eigenvalue]

Without reads, without a history of some orbits with this player at the table, I would fold this any time!

As a general rule of thumb, 1 pair, even an overpair, is not enough to call an all-in on the flop. In these cases, I tell myself alway: "I love my stack!"

[kidpokeher]

Interesting results dennisa and, yeah I should've included JT. Nobody shoves with AJ in this spot?

I'm bringing this up mostly as a theoretical discussion about overpairs in general but assume full stacks if you wish.

Speedlimits, what the hell movie is your avatar from? /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Speedlimits]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I fold this.

Been playing QQ very conservatively and liking it.

[/ QUOTE ]

maybe, but just because you go broke less, doesn't mean that net net, you're not leaving money on the table cos you miss out on free money too. playing tight feels smarter than playing loose, but if it feels comfortable, i figure it's probably not maximising EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

Two options here.
Call or Fold.

Folding maximizes EV because calling has less EV.

I like your observations on comfort level though, it tends to be true for the most part.

[Speedlimits]

[ QUOTE ]
Interesting results dennisa and, yeah I should've included JT. Nobody shoves with AJ in this spot?

I'm bringing this up mostly as a theoretical discussion about overpairs in general but assume full stacks if you wish.

Speedlimits, what the hell movie is your avatar from? /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

American Psycho

Patrick Bateman kills it. literally.

[Big Poppa Smurf]

you guys realize that your average uNL player has a much wider range here than you do, right?

edit: everyone wants to fold here because this forum is full of weak-tight nits who don't realize that bad players, which most uNL players are, do stupid things

[Dennisa]

[ QUOTE ]
Interesting results dennisa and, yeah I should've included JT. Nobody shoves with AJ in this spot?

I'm bringing this up mostly as a theoretical discussion about overpairs in general but assume full stacks if you wish.

Speedlimits, what the hell movie is your avatar from? /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I think a lot will shove with AJ....but its the 40+/x/1.5+ that will tend to shove with AJ, while the 20-/15-/1.5- will not shove with AJ. I think your first range was overly optimistic while I wanted to show more of a 2+2 tag range.

Just one more range of someone inbetween.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

48,510 games 0.016 secs 3,031,875 games/sec

Board: Jd 6h Tc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 45.2896 % 44.07% 01.22% { QdQh }
Hand 2: 54.7104 % 53.49% 01.22% { KK-TT, 66, AJs, KQs, JTs, 98s, AJo, KQo, JTo }


If you add some stone cold bluffing range to it, it is 50/50.