50NL 77 Underpair

[Redd]

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
Hero: $50
UTG+1: $19.05
CO: $77.46
Button: $25.25
SB: $50.50
BB: $144.90

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG with 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif 7/images/graemlins/club.gif
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $2</font>, UTG+1 calls, CO folds, Button calls, 2 folds.

Flop: T/images/graemlins/spade.gif 3/images/graemlins/club.gif T/images/graemlins/club.gif ($6.75, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $5.5</font>, UTG+1 folds, Button calls.

Turn: J/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($17.75, 2 players)
Hero...

Villain is new but seems to be fairly loose and has been consistently betting huge when he's shown weakness. He's floated and pushed me off of UI overs a couple of times. Note that Villain has a PSB left on the turn. What's the right play here?

[Grunch]

I'm giving this up. I bet most people will push however. But I don't think he'sfolding, and I think it's unlikely you have the best hand.

[Redd]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm giving this up. I bet most people will push however. But I don't think he'sfolding, and I think it's unlikely you have the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Grunch - after realizing that you're posting again, I read your bajillion hand analyses from today :P and noticed this (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&amp;Board=microplnl&amp;Number=8066906&amp; Searchpage=1&amp;Main=8060100&amp;Words=+The+Grunch&amp;topic= &amp;Search=true#Post8066906) fairly similar hand. In the other hand, you recommend a bet - what makes that one a bet and this one a c/f?

[Grunch]

Phew! I was afraid I was going to have to reply, "because I'm inconsistant and I don't really know what I'm talking about." /images/graemlins/smile.gif

But truthfully, in the linked hand, the board is much more coordinated. In your hand, I just can't see many draws. The flush draw, sure. But that's it, and I doubt the naked flush draw is going to bet behind you on the paired board if you check. In the linked hand, a check could provoke a bet from a draw -- many of those draws are combo draws.

Also in your hand the naked flush draw isn't going to call too often of you bet again, so worse hands won't call. A better hand is much better and won't fold. It just seems to me that betting in this spot is really thin.

[Redd]

I was pretty ambiguous when I noted my original read - does it change anything if I expect Villain to push with a flush draw and possibly 44-66 here if I check? He'd probably call the flush draw but fold the pockets if I push.

[Grunch]

That's important. He'd probably also fold 88-99 too? JJ-AA seems unlikely. A push is perfect here. Better hands fold, worse hands call.

[Redd]

Interesting - I actually meant he'd fold lower pockets to a push. I don't think my read is good enough to judge 88/99, but I think it's possible.

One other aside, I don't suppose there's any reason whatsoever to do anything less than a push here, if I hypothetically did decide to bet?

Thanks for your help btw. Hopefully you'll be posting at 2+2 for a while with your new roll - if you vanish from a 3rd forum where I'm a newbie poster, I'm gonna be pissed /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Grunch]

Well, stacks are too short to do anything but push if you bet.

Thanks for the thanks; I'll try to stick around a while!