How can 25NL be beat for 7-8 PTBB/100 Hands? Impossible?

[essence86]

Hi!

I read a post by Ness, in which he said that it´s not at all unrealistic to beat 25NL for 9-10 PTBB/100 Hands.

I am struggling around 2-3 BB/100 Hands.

I have a few things that needs to be worked on, that is:
Agression (mainly post-flop)
C/b - When and when not to

I feel like I suck at 2-3 BB.

[Grunch]

During my rebuild period (that is, my second trip through NL25) I beat it for 15 ptbb/100 over 25k hands. I ran hot, but still.

[essence86]

Yes, very nice.
I have always believed over 6-7 is just running very good.

[Grunch]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, very nice.
I have always believed over 6-7 is just running very good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, I'll be more clear.

I believe that 10-12 PTBB/100 is sustainable long-term for a good player at NL25. I also believe that a competent NL player should be able to beat NL25 for ~8PTBB/100 long term. In both cases, 'long term' means the hot & cold periods counteract each other.

You're beating NL25, so you're doing better than 65% of all NL25 players. Be proud of that. But don't think you're beating it for all you can beat it for. I'm not telling you this to discourage you -- I'm telling you this because I believe you can do much better with study & focus.

[essence86]

Thanks!

Yes, you are right.
I only stay on 25NL because I need to develop and learn the game, even though I have the roll for 100NL.

What could I be missing, that holds my winnings down.
One leak is not folding overpairs sometimes, and losing my whole stack.
I have fixed some calling and position issues, where I might have been leaking money.

[SlightlyMad]

I've been running at 21 PTBB/100 hands and I know that is unsustainable in the long run. However, after 10K hands on PokerStars, I believe that it should be possible to beat it for 9-10 PTBB/100 hands in the long run. (Of course, I've been running at -12 PTBB/100 at NL$50, but that's a topic for the Microbrew thread once I get some more hands in and fix some of my bad leaks and behaviour learned during my hot run at NL$25.)

Which site are you on, essence? Some sites are tougher than others at NL$25.

[Shaddux]

Over how many hands have you attained this win rate?

[carnivalhobo]

winrates are useless

[Grunch]

[ QUOTE ]
winrates are useless

[/ QUOTE ]

While this may be true from the perspective you are probably viewing this from, from another eqally valid perspective you might say that winrates are the whole point.

After all, we don't play solely for the intellectual challenge any more than we have jobs soley because we enjoy the work. We play to win money.

For this reason I feel that winrate should not be cast aside as a pointless topic never to be discussed intelligently. Unfortunately that's how 2p2 usually treats the topic.

[TKWest]

[ QUOTE ]


One leak is not folding overpairs sometimes, and losing my whole stack.


[/ QUOTE ]

The difference between your win rate (which isnt that bad) and a higher winrate is probably losing big pots with overpairs losing to sets/flushes/straights.

If you have a big pair, raise Pf, get called, bet the flop and get called again or raised slow down unless you improve.

I have a good win rate and I think it is due to winning big pots with sets against players going too far with only a pair.

[carnivalhobo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
winrates are useless

[/ QUOTE ]

While this may be true from the perspective you are probably viewing this from, from another eqally valid perspective you might say that winrates are the whole point.

After all, we don't play solely for the intellectual challenge any more than we have jobs soley because we enjoy the work. We play to win money.

For this reason I feel that winrate should not be cast aside as a pointless topic never to be discussed intelligently. Unfortunately that's how 2p2 usually treats the topic.

[/ QUOTE ]

I play to win money. A winrate playing micro stakes with a tiny sample is IMO meaningless, when you are playing 25nl you should be improving so fast and moving up fast enough that you never get a winrate thats actualyl meaningful (sample size concerns). I dont think someone that plays 10k hands of 25nl and wins at 3bb should be worried that they suck at poker and will never be able to move up, jsut as someone who beats it for 20 over the same sample should think they are the next ivey. The fact that you need a 100kish hand sample where your play is reletively constant to create a meaningful winrate is the biggest issue to me, and people getting hung up on them is a bad idea. Just make +EV choices and move up as your roll allows, the only time i think winrate should be a concern is if someone is going pro or to compare regular players at a level over large samples.



EDIT: Also the winrate max.'ing behavior is very different that what most pros choose to do, rather than play 1-2 tables with exact reads and perfect notes they play multiple tables to maximize EARN, so in this sense i think hourly rate is more useful than winrate.

[pdoran10]

22K hands, 8.48BB/100. Yes its possible to beat up NL 25 long term this way. If only i could roll myself back up to NL 50 and run at 8 instead of 4.30. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Grunch]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont think someone that plays 10k hands of 25nl and wins at 3bb should be worried that they suck at poker...

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that winrates are not 100% correlative to skill. But over a period of time, even a period of time as short as 10k hands, winrates are also not 0% correlative to skill. The tendancy on this forum is to disregard them out of hand until you have an insane ammount of hands. I think this is disregarding an important self-evaluation tool.

Ok sure. Just because a person plays 10k hands and gets a winrate of 3ptbb/100 doesn't mean that thier skill level is 3 ptbb/100. But you know what? It's probably closer to 3 ptbb/100 than 15 ptbb/100. Conversely a 15ptbb/100 winner is probably a better player than the 3/100 player.

[gir]

Grunch, how much did you put in the first time? How many hands until busto? How much did you put in second time? How long until you played consistent enough to double your roll? I've played close to 30000 hands and over the span went busto. Started with 500, peaked over 800, and am at around 80 currently. I really really really don't want to lose this 80. Teach me sweetheart (It's a song...holy [censored]...another song by that artist just started playing less than two seconds after I wrote that...). Anyways, yeah, help me please! =D

[eigenvalue]

I had a horrible streak lately and lost 8 buy-ins in 2 days, but still my hourly earning rate is somewhere between $4-5 at the moment. I think this comes close to 8PTBB (I don't use this tool).

Every time I start playing, I tell myself:
(1) "I love my stack!"
(2) "An overpair is just one pair, so don't force it!"
(3) "If there's a minraiser at the table, I'm here to take his entire stack! Nothing else matters."

[Check_The_Nuts]

gir - do you move down when playing bad/losing? Do you keep your sessions short? Do you play longer when losing?

all of these things contribute to my bad play at times. Its very important to move down when a level is beating you, or your underrolled for that level. These are just observations I noticed when going from 2NL->5NL->10NL and now trying to get to 25NL. Every time I have to just keep taking shots at the higher level, and trying to not play stupid up there (for some reason I always seem to default to stupid poker).....for me, I think stop losses are important...

If I were you, I'd hit 5NL for a bit till I got about 120 bucks (this is how much I need to be comfortable at 10NL, maybe just 100). Then I'd do 10NL for a bit, until I hit about 300, then try some 25NL. This is assuming your comfortable at 25NL. If you drop back to 80 playing 10NL, after beating 5NL, then go back to 5NL, rinse repeat....


I'm also interested in hearing how grunch jumped from 10NL to 25NL, or if he was just one of those guys that started at 25NL....

[Dennisa]

This is my NL25 graph for the last 1.5 weeks. When I try NL 50 I just get killed. Ive been 6-8 tabling and putting in about 8 hours a day.

I need to figure out how to get to the next level. My history has been full ring and just started playing 6 max.

http://aycu29.webshots.com/image/8228/2004387208902179834_th.jpg (http://allyoucanupload.webshots.com/v/2004387208902179834)

[Antinome]

I'm going through 25NL for the second time after taking out most of my bankroll for live play.

I'm easily beating it for 20BB/100, even including a 10 buyin downswing. That's about what I was running towards the end of my first time through. (though that was mostly 25PLFR)

I'd be done with 25NL really fast if I didn't keep playing 1/2 Razz /images/graemlins/smile.gif