Deep stacked blind war vs. a decent LAG and things get....interesting [Archive]

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Kyriefurro

11-15-2006, 02:38 PM

Villain is LAG. He's been on two of my tables for about three hours now and he's running 32/22/4 over 350 hands. My general impression is that he knows what he's doing. For the most part, when he gets to showdown, he's got the goods. However, he's made significant mistakes often enough to leave room for doubt with regards to skill. For example he called a TAG's all-in 75BB 4-bet preflop with AKo about half an hour before this hand. I've also seen him call an all-in bet on the river with TPTK when the river card completed a possible flush AND a possible straight (note - he CALLED all-in, he didn't raise all-in). So it's possible he's not as good as I think he is, and he's just running hellishly hot. Then again, these could have been read-based decissions and he's every bit as good as I suspect he is, if not better /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

My image is TAG, and Villain is definately aware of this. He's made a number of aggressive moves against me and I'm quite certain that he's successfuly run a couple of bluffs past me.

Lastly, it should be noted that Villain is QUITE comfortable putting a lot of money into the pot with a marginal hand (or less) if he thinks he has enough fold equity.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button :#A500AF(Villain)/ ($126.35)
SB ($19)
Hero ($128.50)
UTG ($45.80)
MP ($45.45)
CO ($68.45)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
3 folds, Button :#A500AF(Villain)/ raises to $2, 1 fold, Hero raises to $6, Button :#A500AF(Villain)/ calls $4.

Villain could literally have ATC at this point, or close to it. I'm seriously putting him on a range of any pair, any two paint cards, and SC's, any suited one-gappers, any suited Ace or King, as well as possibly any medium+ non-suited connectors, and any Ace rag.

Flop: ($12.25) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $8, Villain raises to $29.5, Hero.....?

A few thoughts here...

1) Based on our history, I fold in this situation almost always. I suspect Villain knows this.

2) This large raise from villain is somewhat typical in hands he's playing against known TAG's. Yes, he could be betting this big with air. Or he may actually have a hand. His raise size isn't terribly significant.

3) If I decide to my hand is good, I'm going to the felt, one way or another...for @260BB.

What's my line, and why?

morphball

11-15-2006, 05:36 PM

4-bet to $80, you are so ahead of his range you do not want him to fold, if he has a set here its variance...

Giving villian no bluff whatsoever...

Hold'em Simulation
42,570 trials (Exhaustive)
board: 4hAhTs
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
AcTc 70.79%
AA,TT,44,AT,A4,AQ,AK,AJ,KhQh,ThJh,ThQh,ThKh 29.21%

Marshall28

11-15-2006, 05:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
4-bet to $80, you are so ahead of his range you do not want him to fold, if he has a set here its variance...

[/ QUOTE ]

ImprovinNewbie

11-15-2006, 05:40 PM

re-raise no problem. why are you floding top 2 pair in this situation usually? i think thats too tight but im a donkey. this is a real question.

Shaddux

11-15-2006, 05:44 PM

You mean 3-bet?

If we don't want villain to fold, why are we reraising? I prefer a flop call and c/r AI on the turn.

RAHZero

11-15-2006, 06:00 PM

I don't think we can consider folding this, given villain's history. I call the flop raise, planning to C/R AI on the turn. If the turn is a heart, or a king, queen or jack, I may have to reevaluate.

Shaddux

11-15-2006, 06:02 PM

btw, you really fold here usually against LAGs??

RAHZero

11-15-2006, 06:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
btw, you really fold here usually against LAGs??

[/ QUOTE ]

I think OP wasn't talking about folding top two, but rather folding to a big raise OOP in a RRed pot. At least, I hope that's what he was talking about, because I'm never folding top two in this situation versus a LAG. In fact, I'm not sure I'm folding top two here ever, except against super nits.

wingchunflush

11-15-2006, 06:07 PM

I like the re raise on the flop here. I wouldnt wait for the turn here.

wslee00

11-15-2006, 06:33 PM

call/min-raise and get the rest in on the turn

UncleKraut

11-15-2006, 06:47 PM

I shove here.

lacrymosa

11-15-2006, 06:53 PM

easy push

EDIT:oops didn't see stack sizes. I 3-bet to 70-80

morphball

11-15-2006, 07:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If the turn is a heart, or a king, queen or jack, I may have to reevaluate.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is why I think giving free cards is bad here, your hand is good, but not strong enough to be giving free cards, there are 21 cards that could potentially cost us our stack here...

Kyriefurro

11-15-2006, 08:51 PM

Thanks for all the replies.

I should have been more clear when I talked about folding in this post. Based on the 350 hands that I've played against villain, and because for some reason every other time the betting's gone like this I've ended up missing the flop....I've been having to fold to villain's aggression much more often than I'd like to. So he's probably thinking I'm going to fold again....maybe.

A couple of people suggested 3-betting here. My only though is, what do I do if he pushes?

Wu36

11-15-2006, 09:07 PM

callcallcallcall?

Kyriefurro

11-15-2006, 09:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
callcallcallcall?

[/ QUOTE ]

This guy is NOT a stupid LAG. Do you really think that after I've folded to him so often he's going to 4-bet here without the goods?

Carmine

11-16-2006, 12:03 AM

Well I don't think you are ever folding in this spot agaisnt just about any player and especially not agaisnt this LAG.

There are only 5 combinations you are behind and at least one would have likely re-raised PF. I would think the only correct play is to push AI.

orange

11-16-2006, 07:00 AM

This is an easy 3-bet on the flop. I would make it $80 and shove any turn. Calling and c/r-ing the turn has its merits, though there are a few nasty turn cards (namely paint) that could suck. Villan has a larger Ace here the majority of the time I think.

BigBadBabar

11-16-2006, 07:54 AM

wow, i can't imagine folding this, especially to a lag. i think i'd 3bet it to about 70 or so, call a push obviously, and get the money in on blank turns and we'll be pot committed then anyway, so...

chesspain

11-16-2006, 08:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
callcallcallcall?

[/ QUOTE ]

This guy is NOT a stupid LAG. Do you really think that after I've folded to him so often he's going to 4-bet here without the goods?

[/ QUOTE ]

You have the near-goods. However, there are many hands he could have which he thinks are the goods (A4/AK/AQ).

I had an NL100 hand I played against a maniac who more than a few times did things like raise a few limpers preflop AI with a full-stack, or limp preflop and then bet his entire stack on the flop for a 5BB pot. When I finally caught an AJ8 flop with my AJ and called his flop AI overbet, he had 88. That's called a cooler.

Indeed, when you flop top-two against a maniac and it turns out you were outflopped, you are supposed to post it in BBV. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif