$25nl 6M - time to gamble ?? (preflop question)

[MadMat]

played at WPEX - so no convertor

Stacks - I have $28.80 and cover table
Reads -
button is a shortstack and seems weak/tight
BB seems ok, TAGish, but not played a huge number of hands with him


Preflop

MadMat has A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

UTG Raises to $1, MadMat Raises to $3, 1 Fold, Button raises all-in, $9.30 SB folds, BB calls $9.30, UTG folds, MadMat ???

So theres a lot of money in the pot (~$22) - do we gamble it up and shove here, or quietly fold and wait for a better spot? BB has about $18 left in front of him which I cover.

Mat

[orange]

reshoveo.

[Jigsaws]

Reshoving here is very sexy. BB might just find a fold with JJ-.

[pokerchap]

i reshove also. if BB were to shove I fold here.

[MadMat]

Wow I think I'm starting to get the hang of this

(I re-shoved)

Mat

[wingchunflush]

BB seems not too happy with his hand here. I reshove here too much money in the pot.

[kurto]

[ QUOTE ]
reshoveo.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? Assuming players aren't maniacs... certainly he's completely dominated. And with the heavy action, a lot of his outs have got to be gone.

[orange]

he's only dominated by AA/KK (obv). even if he has a hand like JJ/QQ, i think our move is still +EV because of all the dead money in there. plus, we could be up vs. 2 pocket pair hands or something of the like.

[MadMat]

Well if BB calls I'm slightly behind given the range I put him on. but I think that the dead money in the pot, plus the fold equity if he's the bottom end of the range makes this OK

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 36.6604 % 27.73% 08.93% { AKs }
Hand 2: 21.7868 % 16.37% 05.42% { 99, AJs+, AJo+ }
Hand 3: 41.5527 % 35.89% 05.66% { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }

[Big Poppa Smurf]

shove, because bb is an idiot and i like to gamble

[Sir Winalot]

Re-shove.