50 NL 6-max - Overpair flush draw min-raised at the river

[YKMM]

CO is 83/33/0.6 in 32 hands. What I should do on the turn has got me very confused. I'm barely getting the odds to call here (I think) assuming villain has me beaten by a flush. Does villain have a flush here often enough so that it's an easy fold or shove all-in?

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $34.65
UTG+1: $27.30
CO: $45.60
Hero: $49.20
SB: $65.80
BB: $15

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is Button with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif K/images/graemlins/heart.gif
2 folds, CO calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $2.5</font>, 2 folds, CO calls.

Flop: 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($5.75, 2 players)
CO checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $5</font>, CO calls.

Turn: 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($15.75, 2 players)
CO checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $12</font>, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises to $24</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero .....</font> (CO has $14.10 left)

[Sir Winalot]

Meh, not a very nice spot to be in. I'd probably fold.

[Jouster777]

I push here if I think that villain's VPIP is a true reflection of his play. The PAF scares me a little but the number of hands is so low its hard to believe any of those numbers.

Even in the unlikely event he has a flush you have 7 outs to the 2nd nut flush and 9 outs if he has a straight. You can't call and get away on the river so you don't really have odds to call if you need to hit a draw. However, this is balanced by the overpairs and A8's that a goofy donk will do this with. I can go either way but push if I think villain's a nut so I get the money in now while he'll still call with his overpair, TPTK, or NFD.

[xwillience]

at the moment im too lazy to do an EV calc but i think its pretty marginal either way. his line kind of looks like Axs but it could also be a set. he could have a smaller flush too.

i think checking the turn through here is the best choice though. your probably nto going to get called by much you beat aside from a biggish flush draw or JJ/QQ.

[Splossy]

I'm wondering if you really needed to bet so much on the turn.

[ok2aa]

i push here every time against this type of villain.

and the turn bet size is fine. i want to get as much money as possible here.

[eigenvalue]

FLOP: This is another great example why we shouldn't bet the pot on a scary flop!

TURN: This is another great example why we shouldn't bet the pot on a scary flop, but we repeat that same mistake on the turn, gratefully committing ourselfs to the pot on a draw heavy board.

KK is a great hand, but sometimes I see a flop where I don't want to play a huge pot with my KK. If it is possible to see a cheap showdown, nice. If not, I will leave myself an open door to get out having not commited to much money.

[Splossy]

A villian with a 0.6 PFA? He has you beat at the moment that is for sure. Nobody checkraises in that position with that board without a hand. So you are pushing for the flush draw here.

[gimmetheloot]

shove all day.

[Jigsaws]

For the love of all that is holy please shove.