NL50 6max - Illustration of the importance of hand ranges

[Everlong]

Villain's pre-flop is OK I guess but this is a case where folding bottom set might be warranted.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
5 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $124.85
CO: $41.25
Button: $49
Hero: $71.60
BB: $67.40

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is SB with 2 cards, a slight erection and a very small stack in the 5.15 O/8 MTT.

UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises to $2</font>, Button calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $8</font>, BB folds, CO calls, Button calls.

Flop: Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ($24.5, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $20.5</font>, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises all-in $33.25</font>, Button folds, Hero calls.

Turn: 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($91, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $91)


River: 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($91, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $91)


Results:
Final pot: $91
CO showed 4d 4s
<font color="red">
It all boils down to how tight a range he has me on.

Very optimistic:

Board: Ad 4h Qs
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 71.3215 % 71.32% 00.00% { 44 }
Hand 2: 28.6785 % 28.68% 00.00% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }

More realistic:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 46.7677 % 46.77% 00.00% { 44 }
Hand 2: 53.2323 % 53.23% 00.00% { QQ+ }

Nightmare:
Board: Ad 4h Qs
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 04.3434 % 04.34% 00.00% { 44 }
Hand 2: 95.6566 % 95.66% 00.00% { AA }

</font>

<font color="blue">What is your flop moe if you are villain?</font>

[blackize]

What do you mean what is villains flop move? Assuming his range is QQ+,AQs+,AKo he should shove everything except KK over your flop bet.

Also if you want to get away from top set, bet 15 on the flop. As is you're getting 4:1 and this could be AQ or AK often enough to call.

[Jigsaws]

I get it in on this flop, but I folded preflop.

[Everlong]

[ QUOTE ]
What do you mean what is villains flop move? Assuming his range is QQ+,AQs+,AKo he should shove everything except KK over your flop bet.

Also if you want to get away from top set, bet 15 on the flop. As is you're getting 4:1 and this could be AQ or AK often enough to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe I wasn't clear enough. Villain has 44 - I am the one to put on a range.

[Panthro]

[ QUOTE ]
I get it in on this flop, but I folded preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

ditto. 5-10 rule.

[blackize]

Oops misread. I C/R all in if I'm the villain.

[Everlong]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I get it in on this flop, but I folded preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

ditto. 5-10 rule.

[/ QUOTE ]

IDK this seems like a blanket statement totally disregarding the preflop action - and only looking at your own cards.

I have AQ or AK never here...and if villain pays any attention he'd know that.

[blackize]

[ QUOTE ]
I have AQ or AK never here

[/ QUOTE ]

You play bad then

[Everlong]

[ QUOTE ]

You play bad then

[/ QUOTE ]
I definately suck in various departments. I seldom squeeze - it is not a play I am at all comfy with.

Anyway - I guess the consensus is villain shouldn't fold the flop. Personally I would definately consider a flop fold. But I am biased. I had AA and villain stacks off.

[Panthro]

you play that tight? what are your stats? You never 3-bet with anything less than QQ out of the SB?

[Everlong]

[ QUOTE ]
You never 3-bet with anything less than QQ out of the SB?

[/ QUOTE ]

Around 29/15

Yes I do - but I am folding AQ here and depending on who is already in I may raise or call with AK.

Starting to think I may be wrong here. I guess it is impossible for villain to put me on a range that narrow.

[blackize]

If my last post came off a bit harsh I apologize. I just meant that you really should be 3 betting wider than that for value not just as a squeeze(which by definition you won't have a strong hand for).

The villain should definitely fold preflop, but once he makes it to the flop he has to continue. Why post this hand though? Aside from the preflop play by your villain it looks pretty standard.

[Everlong]

blackize;
Appology accepted and appretiated.

I was kinda convinced that a flop fold on villains part was correct - hence the post. Again - I am starting to think otherwise.

The post apparantly did serve a purpose for me at least:
* Posting here teaches you stuff
* Don't be results oriented
* Go to bed - it is 2.26 am and work tomorrow...

[Big Poppa Smurf]

why would villain ever fold here????

edit: i didn't notice the flop was 3-handed which should shift your range much tighter than it being heads up, but yeah villain should still never fold here

[Waingro]

So, you have AA or QQ here 100% of the time and villain is an idiot for not realizing it? If your range is that tight after this action that would be much, much worse than going broke with bottom set here.

[Thrahl]

Flopping set over set are rare enough that assuming there are no straights or flushes on the board that you should pretty much be felting every time.

[ QUOTE ]
Fred's chance of being dealt a pocket Pair was 1 in 17. The chance of his flopping a Set was about 1 in 9, (just a Set, not a Set or better). The chance of anyone else flopping a Set was about 1 in 20, for a combined chance of roughly 1 in 3200

[/ QUOTE ]

[Big Poppa Smurf]

[ QUOTE ]
Flopping set over set are rare enough that assuming there are no straights or flushes on the board that you should pretty much be felting every time.

[ QUOTE ]
Fred's chance of being dealt a pocket Pair was 1 in 17. The chance of his flopping a Set was about 1 in 9, (just a Set, not a Set or better). The chance of anyone else flopping a Set was about 1 in 20, for a combined chance of roughly 1 in 3200

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

thrahl,

that is what i believe is called absolute probability or something else, what we deal with in poker is conditional probability: the odds of OP having a set here are much higher given how tight he is and his preflop 3bet and cbet