Variance, thou art so harsh... Dealing with a downswing

[kazana]

"Some day, you'll run worse than you've ever imagined..."

I had a taste of that truth. During the last 10 days, I've been running absolutely atrocious. I'm on an overall downswing of -20 buyins so far.
Thanks to moving up and down in a disciplined order, and doing other thinds to try to keep mentally sane, the damage isn't crippling me - but still, I only have half of my bankroll left from the point when that downswing started.

So let me just share a few things that allow me to carry on and hopefully push through this patch without going (completely) nuts:

1) First things first, you can expect to go through a rough patch like this sooner or later. No one who is playing a fair amount of hands is safe from experiencing this, so try to have some mental help ready for the dark days.
I thought my last downswing (12 buyins) was harsh. I thought I'd be downswing-free for a while. Well, turns out I'm not. And neither are you. And I fully understand that some time I'm likely to run even worse than I have recently. Let's just hope this happens in 20 years' time. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

2) There's nothing wrong with moving up or taking shots on a rather shortish bankroll, but make sure that you're not too proud to move down if Mistress Variance decides to present herself from her ugliest of sides. Bad luck + an ego that doesn't match your bankroll is a sure way of going busto.
Also, playing short when you're running badly is likely to make you play scared - this should never happen. You should be willing to gamble with all the money at your tables without having to worry about consequences.

3) I'm not able to confirm that the downswing is over, yet. I'm still waiting to rebound. I think I should go to the village center, erect a totem, and dance half-naked around it to regain the favor of Pokah... This might be a good exercise to get grounded again - or arrested for public harassment. Either way, you're getting away from the negativity of getting your life (= bankroll) sucked out of you at the tables. I only sit down at the tables when I have a positive attitude. Betting scared (or, worse, not betting because of being scared), because I'm expecting to lose won't help me optimize the amounts I should win when I'm ahead for a change.

4) I swore to myself that I'm not going to bore you with details of suckouts (that's munkeys job to listen to them /images/graemlins/wink.gif - shout out to him for being so patient with my bitching).
Instead, I'll just mention one major contributing factor: I have been running with KK into AA at least 6 times during this period (alone 4 times this past weekend). I don't have the stats with me, but I think it turned my lifetime KK turnover red (or at least very close to red).
Things like this happen. My bane has been losing an untypical amount of pots in high-pocket-pair-preflop-pushaments. Your bane could be constantly running into higher flushes/straights/sets. Make sure you know that it is a series of unfortunate match-ups rather than misplaying your hands.

5) Nothing else left to say other than keep your calm, step away from the computer when you feel frustrated, go for a walk, go over your hands to make sure you didn't tilt (too much). Regain your composure, try to stay positive and give that variance bitch a nasty slap. And, last but not least, play good poker and - for the love of Pokah - start running good again!

[lacrymosa]

very nice post. It's comforting (and unfortunate) to know that I'm not the only one going through this tough time. My advice is to make sure you keep reading and learning from your mistakes. Doing everything you possibly can to plug up leaks. There is nothing that we can do to change what cards come out of the deck, but we can sometimes limit the amount we lose by applying reasoning that is discussed in these forums. So ensure you don't get complacent with your games when you are running hot.

[cestlavie]

Great post. There are good things in big downswings too; they force you to examine your play closely, to see whether you've really just been unlucky or are playing badly. The other thing is that they make you better prepared for the future. There's no avoiding donwswings every now and then in the long run, and the deeper you've been and made it back from, the better you'll be able to handle swings in the future.

[Sir Winalot]

I think you made a pretty good post about a pretty hard subject. nh kazana /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[avfletch]

Nice post. It'd be interesting to see some figures to go with it. Stuff like -

How many hands have you played overall?
How many hands has your 20 buyin swing been over?
How many hands did it take to recover to where you started after the last monster downswing.

If you have a poker patterns graph that would be quite interesting to see. Although if other people think it might set a bad precedent then please don't post it up, we don't want to encourage BBV-esque threads to come out of this good treatment you've given the subject.

[kazana]

Thanks for the comments so far. I thought this might be a more constructive way of getting over the swings than continuously complaining. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[ QUOTE ]
Nice post. It'd be interesting to see some figures to go with it. Stuff like -

How many hands have you played overall?
How many hands has your 20 buyin swing been over?
How many hands did it take to recover to where you started after the last monster downswing.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure if I'm going to post graphs, I just feel they clutter posts a lot. But I'll think about it, and see if there's any valuable information to be had from a graph.

I don't have the exact stats with me (currently at work), but let me give you a few rough indicators (from memory).

- Hands played overall: ~ 90-100k (max 4 tabling)
- Current swing has been over ~7-8k hands so far (not officially over, yet).
- The last downswing (12 buyins) happened over about 5k hands and took me ~15-17k hands to recover from.
- About 5k hands after fully recovering from my last swing, the current one started (~20-22k hands of running normal or good). I really didn't expect do go down this road so soon again.

[beaster]

Earlier this year I experienced a 450BB downswing in fullring limit. That shook my confidence tremendously, but the resulting upswing was a legendary string of heaters. Remember your heaters when in the midst of a downswing. They will come, and it is a glorious feeling.

Switched to 25NL 6max this month, and right off the bat I went +10 buyins and then -20. Monster hands getting sucked out like you wouldn't believe. AA losing to KK when a K drops on the river, [censored] like that.

A downswing is an opportunity. An opportunity to stop, say WTF, and evaluate. Downswings can be a gut-check too...do you have what it takes to continue learning and get better?

[munkey]

I agree with what other posters and I believe Harrington said. You're either runnning hot and raking it in or in a downswing learning and geting better.

I know you've been savagely beaten with the variance stick recently and after your weekend post when you were 'contemplating' taking your roll->> pub /images/graemlins/laugh.gif I felt there was a small risk that you might have been 'varianced' too much.

But this post and especially no.5 has reassured me that your here to stay and doing all the right things. You seem to be keeping your head coming out of a downswing...

"If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;"

"If you can get it AI as a favourite with 1/20 of your bankroll again and again and lose
and shrug it off
then you'll be a pokah player kazana." /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[kaz2107]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with what other posters and I believe Harrington said. You're either runnning hot and raking it in or in a downswing learning and geting better.

I know you've been savagely beaten with the variance stick recently and after your weekend post when you were 'contemplating' taking your roll->> pub /images/graemlins/laugh.gif I felt there was a small risk that you might have been 'varianced' too much.

But this post and especially no.5 has reassured me that your here to stay and doing all the right things. You seem to be keeping your head coming out of a downswing...

"If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;"

"If you can get it AI as a favourite with 1/20 of your bankroll again and again and lose
and shrug it off
then you'll be a pokah player kazana." /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

sick quotes munkey. i think i might print them both off and keep them on my desk.

as for kazana. great post. i love reading these as vairience is the toughest part of poker imo.

gl and im sure things will turn around for ya. pm if u ever need some one to review hands while this is goin on. best of luck

[Wisch]

nice post Kazanza.

I am in the middle of a pretty harsh downswing right now as well. Mine just started after playing about 5K hands at 100NL. I dropped close to four buy ins at 100NL; moved down to 50NL where I proceeded to drop 10 buy ins. Last night I moved down to $25NL where I will stay until I shake this bad boy.

For reference, I have moved up as suggested in these forums from $25NL to $50NL and then to $100NL and ran at 6.5 PTBB/100 for approximately 40,000 total hands (total from 25 to 100) before the downswing started. My current downswing is over around 5K hands.

On thing I would like to add to the OP is that it, during a downswing, it can be very hard to separate yourself from the downswing but it is mandatory. What I mean by that is...Dont let the downswing affect the decisions you make at the table. You will be tempted to make a fold because you just dont want to call off another chunk of your bankroll. On the otherhand, you may be tempted to make a call on the river because "surely i didnt get sucked out on again" or because you are just waiting for that big pot to get you moving forward. You may be tempted to chase a draw that you shouldn't. Make sure your decisions are for the right reasons and not influenced by the downswing. E.g. Last night I was value betting a KK when an A hit the river. Big bet by the OOP villain. I told myself...he has to be bluffing...there's no way this has happenned again. I called only to find out he had the A. I knew it in the back of my mind but I let the downswing influence my play. I knew then that I needed a break.
Reviewing your hands should let you know if this is a concern.

Not sure if this makes sense, but thought I would try and contribute something. I hope I begin to move forward again soon. Until then...here's to proper bankroll management. Without that i would be busto.

Wisch

[Marshall28]

i lost 28 buy ins at 100nl in 5 days. i have to play 25nl now to build that back up ...

this is the 2nd time ive taken big losses at 100nl ... other time i lost 14 buy ins in 3 days.

i lost set under set 6 times in 1 day ... sometimes ill go a week without losingset under set.

the thing is though ... if you learn the discipline to move down when necessary, and dont let your ego get involved, you will eventually be a great player.

[kurto]

I don't think anyone should be afraid to move down. I made it up to $100, but was playing mostly $50 tables at Party/Stars. I recently joined FTP and am playing $25 just to build up the bankroll.

Frankly, moving down can be a lot of fun. There's less stress (easier to just think of it as a bet instead of money) and the players are so much noticeably bad. I find myself laughing at the $25 tables a lot just seeing some of the ridiculous showdowns.

Of course when you run bad at $25 it may drive you a little nutty. You will suffer some beats to some incredibly horrible players.

[pr0crast]

[ QUOTE ]
i lost 28 buy ins at 100nl in 5 days. i have to play 25nl now to build that back up ...

this is the 2nd time ive taken big losses at 100nl ... other time i lost 14 buy ins in 3 days.

i lost set under set 6 times in 1 day ... sometimes ill go a week without losingset under set.

[/ QUOTE ]
What about the other 22 buyins? Tilt?

Seriously though, I could be wrong, but a 28 buyin downswing is a bit much for a solidly winning player to expect. I'd start to look for serious leaks. My only basis for saying so is personal experience and the fact that of the solidly winning players who post graphs, you never see -30 buyins on there. It's pretty much a straight shoot up with a couple -10 buyin hiccups scattered throughout.

Props to you for having the discipline to move down though. [ QUOTE ]
On thing I would like to add to the OP is that it, during a downswing, it can be very hard to separate yourself from the downswing but it is mandatory. What I mean by that is...Dont let the downswing affect the decisions you make at the table. You will be tempted to make a fold because you just dont want to call off another chunk of your bankroll. On the otherhand, you may be tempted to make a call on the river because "surely i didnt get sucked out on again" or because you are just waiting for that big pot to get you moving forward. You may be tempted to chase a draw that you shouldn't. Make sure your decisions are for the right reasons and not influenced by the downswing. E.g. Last night I was value betting a KK when an A hit the river. Big bet by the OOP villain. I told myself...he has to be bluffing...there's no way this has happenned again. I called only to find out he had the A. I knew it in the back of my mind but I let the downswing influence my play. I knew then that I needed a break.
Reviewing your hands should let you know if this is a concern.

[/ QUOTE ] wise words

[Marshall28]

some pots were 2-3 buy ins at a time ... 4 or 5 of them were all in AK vs AA/KK or KK vs AA pf ... a few were AA all in pf. a lot were when id move it in w/ a draw and not draw out yet call down someone else moving it in w/ a draw and them drawing out.

of course i was susceptible to tilt .. who can lose so many hands in a row and not tilt? i obviously made a terrible mistake in continuing to play when i should have just taken a break, but you know what? im paying for that mistake now having to move down to 25nl ...

i was a consistent winner at 100nl for about 15 buy ins the first time and 20 buy ins the 2nd time ... before each individual downswing.

its kind of amazing though, after this happening for like 30k+ hands its just like "is this ever going to end?" "was i ever any good or was making all of the money ive made just me having good luck?"

lots of negative thoughts start to creep ... lol after you lose 6 set under sets in 1 day, then finally getting it all in w/ a set of aces against a set of 4s ... and having the 4s draw to quads on the river ... it feels like all of the effort youve put in has been a complete waste.

but you gotta keep pluggin away just put in more time and more thought ... that is .. after youve taken a break and gotten your head straight. THINGS WILL GET BETTER!

[HBomb]

Stick with it, it sounds like you have the patience and discipline of someone willing to work through something with the end result of making more profits.

[kaz2107]

[ QUOTE ]
i lost 28 buy ins at 100nl in 5 days. i have to play 25nl now to build that back up ...

this is the 2nd time ive taken big losses at 100nl ... other time i lost 14 buy ins in 3 days.

i lost set under set 6 times in 1 day ... sometimes ill go a week without losingset under set.

the thing is though ... if you learn the discipline to move down when necessary, and dont let your ego get involved, you will eventually be a great player.

[/ QUOTE ]

u post seems kinda contradicting. how do u lose 28 buy ins with out moving down?

u say, "if you learn the discipline to move down when necessary, and dont let your ego get involved, you will eventually be a great player."

how does this lead to losing 28 buy ins in 5 days without moving down. now u r playin 25nl instead of 0nl so u have to take even more time to move back up.

why didnt u take ur own advice and moved down after maybe 8 heck even 15 buy ins? this seems ludacris and AWFUL bank roll management to me.

[Marshall28]

lol ... the point wasnt for me to be critiqued ... thank you for attempting to make me feel better about my mistakes and encouraging me.

regardless ... the point was that it happens to people ... and i was just saying that it happened to me ... if i really was trying to complain and get criticism i would have asked for it.

i lost 28 buy in when i was on the cusp of 1/2 ... so i felt like i had plenty skill to beat the .5/1 game i just waited too long for things to turn around.

i really appreciate you telling me how terrible my decisions were though. i guess i wouldnt know that myself by now.

[lorez]

nice hand Kaz man. I think it's great advice. It's tough while it happens but a bit of adversity makes us stronger. Utilize the time to analyze your game and fix any obvious leaks. One of those (as a lot of people have stated) is not moving down. Pride can be a killer. I've gone down from taking shots at $100NL to $10 due to a withdrawing funds and a downswing. I'm playing through it but it's a toughy.

Remember to just "Keep the faith"