How far to go with a bluff on a missed flop?

[Mhoram]

Okay, the game is no limit at a nine man cash game.

You bring it in for 3 or 4 times the big blind with two big cards, early position AK, AQ, or AJs. Late position AJ, ATs, and KQs. You get a couple other players to the flop, maybe they limped, maybe just called, whatever.

43% of the time an ace, king, or queen will flop, so long as no one else hit, a c-bet will usually pick up the pot, as players can easily give you credit for one of these cards, even if they didn't hit you. They might even give it up if they only hit second pair with a bad kicker. A jack on the flop will probably do the job here too. Gonna pick up a lot of small pots this way, which is one of the reasons bringing it in preflop is so profitable.

Here are my questions, what if none of these cards hit, if it's all 9 and lower, it's going to be harder for someone who hit something to give you credit for a hand now, as you have to represent pocket tens or better and that's less believable. In my opinion it's still worth one c-bet to try to pick up the pot but shutdown if you get called or raised. Thoughts?

Now, if an A,K,Q, or J flops but you miss, you still bet, but someone calls you, maybe they're on a draw, maybe they have a smaller pair and need you to bet the turn as well to convince them you hit, but is it profitable to make yet another (larger) bet on the turn when you still havn't hit anything?

Had you hit you'd be fine going ahead and betting, sizing the raise based on what you figured they had, a draw or whatever. It's how to play when you've raised preflop and missed the flop that I need guidence on.

I'm giving up way too much money firing two and three bullets when i've got a good starting hand but have missed the board completely. I'm beginning to realize that I don't have to win every pot I enter and it would help save me some money if the talented players on this forum woudl confirm that for me and tell me to stop being dumb and let the pot go.

Thanks

[RatFink]

If you are opening and getting 3-4 callers, then they don't respect your image anyway, usually because they know you will spew chips.

Also a continuation bet into 4 players usually isn't very wise. While x% of the time your opponent misses the flop, that x decreases quickly as number of players increase.

[Panthro]

Everything you asked depends on my table image and any specific reads/stats on opponents. I rarely double/triple barrel into unknown donks unless I know they're capable of folding a hand.

Secondly (as mentioned above), the more callers, the higher percentage of the time someone will *hit* the flop and have a hand worthy of calling your cbet.

[Mhoram]

Revise.

One caller, two max. This is .25c/.50c nolimit, that's a 50 dollar max buy in. Usually two or three to the flop. Players are not great but not awful at this level. However they come in and out of the tables so fast that you rarely have more than 30 mins. playing time with the same people. Little read on them, and they have little read on you.

I was hoping to make this more of a theoretical discussion than a situational one, but i'll take whatever I can get.

[bbartlog]

You have to mix it up, both on the flop and later, unless you're playing against really unobservant weak-tight players who will keep giving you credit for a hand even after you've c-bet the flop ten times in a row.
In general, the frequency with which you misrepresent your hand (either by bluffing or checking a strong hand) should decrease on each street. Maybe 70% continuation bets on the flop and less than half that on the turn, assuming you simply got called on the flop rather than raised.
However, it does depend on your opponents. Like I said, if people keep respecting your bets, keep making them. Similarly you may eventually run into someone who has learned to totally discount your flop bets but will fold to a bet on the turn and you need to play accordingly...

[Bowlboy]

Lets say you are on the button with AKo. there is 1 limper and folded to you. You make it 4xBB. SB folds and BB calls, and the limper calls. There are now 12.5BB in the pot. You are going to flop TPTK or better 36% of the time which will very likely be the best hand. You will often have the best hand on the flop even when you miss with ace high. Most of the time you will be able to cbet just about any flop when it is checked to you. The odds you are getting to make the best hand and the implied odds of future bets when you do hit the flop make up for the times that you miss and fold to a donk bet. If your cbets arent getting respect by certain players cbet less often. Once you start showing down some hands and players lose some chips to you by calling you down when you do hit the flop, you can go back to cbetting more often.

I see a lot of players who cbet so regularly check behind when they flop a set. This is a horrible mistake in my opinion, because it seems so obvious that they have now connected with the flop.