Flushdraw

[1969]

What potodds should I be getting on the flop with a flushdraw, to make the call in an allin situation? I seem to hear it's everything from 2:1 to 3:1. I'm assuming I have no overcards. And concersely, what odds should I be getting if I did have 2 overcards to the flop in that situation?

[sixhigh]

If you know for sure your overcards were good, you had 15 outs (9 for the flush and 6 to pair you up) and 47 cards are not seen. You will hit one of them them on the turn 32% of the time, meaning you should get a little better than 2:1 pot odds to call. If your overcards are not living or you dont have any, you only got 9 outs, meaning to improve on the turn only 19% of the time. Here you will need 4:1 pot odds to call.

hth

[rposeagles]

In an all-in situation with a flush draw against a pair higher then your pocket cards you have 9 outs twice, so you're about 37% to win the hand. You need to be getting 2.7:1 to call, which accounts for the 2-3:1 you have heard.

Against a pair lower then your flush cards, you are actually a favorite since you have 15 outs twice. You'd need to somehow know that you were facing exactly a pair lower then your flush, but if so then there could be no money in the pot and you should still call. Even if you're facing a set, you're still

[BruceZ]

[ QUOTE ]
In an all-in situation with a flush draw against a pair higher then your pocket cards you have 9 outs twice, so you're about 37% to win the hand. You need to be getting 2.7:1 to call, which accounts for the 2-3:1 you have heard.

[/ QUOTE ]

9 outs twice is about 35% or 1 in 2.86 = 1.86-to-1. So on an all-in, you need the pot to be more than 1.86 times the amount you must call if you are drawing to the nuts, not 2.7 times. You must subtract 1 when converting probability to odds, and don't include your own call as part of the pot when computing pot odds.

Did you get the 37% from Howard Lederer's screwed up tables by any chance?

1 - (38/47)*(37/46) =~ 35% or 1 in 2.86 = 1.86-to-1

or

9/47 + (1 - 9/47)*(9/46) =~ 35% or 1 in 2.86 = 1.86-to-1

or

(9/47)*2 - (9/47)*(8/46) =~ 35% or 1 in 2.86 = 1.86-to-1

[1969]

Thanks for the replies, makes more sense now =)

Lederers screwed up tables hahaha!

[DoubleTwentyOne]

I believe Lederer's tables (rightfully) added the culmulative probability of hitting your draw plus the small chance of backdoor two-pair and/or trips. However small, they are nontheless additional ways for the flush draw to win by the river and therefore should be incorporated into your calculations for pot-odds purposes.

[BruceZ]

[ QUOTE ]
I believe Lederer's tables (rightfully) added the culmulative probability of hitting your draw plus the small chance of backdoor two-pair and/or trips. However small, they are nontheless additional ways for the flush draw to win by the river and therefore should be incorporated into your calculations for pot-odds purposes.

[/ QUOTE ]

Does he give this explanation somewhere? I have never seen this. The table I have from his Secrets of No Limit Hold'em video course simply labels this entry as "9 outs" and "flush draw", and gives 37%. If he intended to include more than this, that should have been stated. Out of 20 entries in that table, 12 are in error if taken at face value. All but 1 are too high, the exception being 21 outs listed as 67% when it should be 69.9%.

If you add backdoor 2-pair and trips to the flush draw case, using both hole cards, that would add another 6/47 * 5/46 or 1.4%, bringing the total to 36.4%, which still doesn't quite explain the 37%.

[Indiana]

Hey bro,

If its all in on the flop and you only have a flush draw, you should be getting 1.86 or better if you feel that your draw hitting would win the hand.

Oh and by the way, if you have a flush draw and two "live" overs then you should call any bet because you have 15 outs and you are a favorite to a made pair. In other words, you don't even have to look at pot odds because you have the best hand.

Indy