View Full Version : Fold a boat? over 300bb deep
tw0please
11-12-2006, 04:29 PM
CO is 47/7/1.7 over 120 hands. His style is loose passive PF but he has exhibited solid post-flop play and even some creativity on turn and river. Haven't gotten involved with him personally but players have been paying his big hands off. Despite his stats I have him tagged as a thinking player.
Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
6 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)
Stack sizes:
UTG: $32.80
UTG+1: $22.05
CO: $87.70
Hero: $81.45
SB: $24.85
BB: $11.80
Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is Button with 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif
2 folds, CO calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $1.25</font>, 2 folds, CO calls.
Flop: T/images/graemlins/club.gif J/images/graemlins/club.gif 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($2.85, 2 players)
CO checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $2</font>, CO calls.
Turn: 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($6.85, 2 players)
CO checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $5</font>, CO calls.
River: 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($16.85, 2 players)
CO checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $11</font>, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises to $39
jonyy6788
11-12-2006, 04:39 PM
What are you worried about? Puuuuusssssssshhhh it
avfletch
11-12-2006, 04:42 PM
Wow, tough spot. I regularly play with 200BB or so but its quite rare to get 2 people 300BB deep so take what I say with the lack of authority it deserves /images/graemlins/smile.gif I would definitely cross post this in SSNL.
When it comes back to you you have to call $28 into a ~$65 pot so you're getting a bit over 2:1 on the call.
I think a concept about deep stack play might apply here (about your river bet) but there is every chance I'm only thinking of it because I know what CO did after you bet. Its generally not a good idea to open the betting on the river if you can't call a big CR. Is that result oriented, what do people think?
At the end of the day though, if this is 66/TT/JJ then, considering the texture of the board and the size of the stacks, he has played this horribly. I think I have to call because I reckon you're good sufficient often for it to be +EV.
avfletch
11-12-2006, 04:43 PM
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What are you worried about? Puuuuusssssssshhhh it
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I'm not convinced by this advice. What worse hands do you expect to call? What better hands do you expect to fold?
Marshall28
11-12-2006, 04:45 PM
lol i wouldnt be surprised to see him holding A MONSTER here. something like JJ or 66 ..
HOWEVER. you have no choice but to call ... JJ 1010 66 are the only hands that beat you.
oh ... and dont c-bet that flop ... thats really terrible because it hit so many possible hands hes holding.
Push
There are 3 JJ hands that beat you
There are 3 TT hands that beat you
There is 1 66 hand that beats you
Opponent is CO with a 7PFR, which means he would open raise JJ or TT so there is one hand you should fear, which is possible but so improbable anything but a push is just playing scared. He could have TJ, you hope he had 86/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q9/images/graemlins/club.gif, or 97/images/graemlins/club.gif or just Q9 or 97 and was worried about the flush so he didn't want to push until the river was not a club. Push it.
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oh ... and dont c-bet that flop ... thats really terrible because it hit so many possible hands hes holding.
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I disagree, the c-bet is fine. It is heads up and you raised pre-flop and you cannot let overcards or clubs draw for free. Against more than one opponent I might think about not c-betting here, but not in position on a single opponent that from the sounds of it, can fold when he doesn't have a hand.
tw0please
11-12-2006, 04:54 PM
Took your advice on the xpost avfletch.
I couldn't put villain on many hands that I was beating. Other than the hands that beat me, what shows up and pulls this river c/r? Low probability of a sick bluff from a busted draw, at these stakes yes?
avfletch
11-12-2006, 04:55 PM
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Took your advice on the xpost avfletch.
I couldn't put villain on many hands that I was beating. Other than the hands that beat me, what shows up and pulls this river c/r? Low probability of a sick bluff from a busted draw, at these stakes yes?
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I don't know. Under normal circumstances I'd agree but people do crazy things when they get this deep.
Marshall28
11-12-2006, 04:56 PM
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oh ... and dont c-bet that flop ... thats really terrible because it hit so many possible hands hes holding.
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I disagree, the c-bet is fine. It is heads up and you raised pre-flop and you cannot let overcards or clubs draw for free. Against more than one opponent I might think about not c-betting here, but not in position on a single opponent that from the sounds of it, can fold when he doesn't have a hand.
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i suppose youre right .. id just expect to get check raised here a lot cuz these villains are so bad and wont bet this flop w/ top pr ... but also i guess betting is the only way youre going to take this pot down ... so i cant really argue with that.
jonyy6788
11-12-2006, 04:57 PM
Calling in these situations makes me sick...you got a monster and there's no way I don't push this hand. If you're too scared to get it in set vs. set then leave a table when you get beyond your comfort level.
tw0please
11-12-2006, 04:58 PM
Also can someone discuss merits of calling vs. pushing here? I am lost on this point, why pushing is necessarily best because of his range here.
avfletch
11-12-2006, 04:59 PM
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oh ... and dont c-bet that flop ... thats really terrible because it hit so many possible hands hes holding.
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I disagree, the c-bet is fine. It is heads up and you raised pre-flop and you cannot let overcards or clubs draw for free. Against more than one opponent I might think about not c-betting here, but not in position on a single opponent that from the sounds of it, can fold when he doesn't have a hand.
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i suppose youre right .. id just expect to get check raised here a lot cuz these villains are so bad and wont bet this flop w/ top pr ... but also i guess betting is the only way youre going to take this pot down ... so i cant really argue with that.
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You can't worry about getting check raised in spots like this. If that was the plan then he's going to fire the turn anyway and you're only saving a couple of bucks but losing out on far more hands where he fires the turn but would've folded the flop.
avfletch
11-12-2006, 05:02 PM
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Calling in these situations makes me sick...you got a monster and there's no way I don't push this hand. If you're too scared to get it in set vs. set then leave a table when you get beyond your comfort level.
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I think this is fine thinking 99% of the time but once we get 300BB deep we really should be looking to have a hand a lot closer to the nuts than normal. Do you really believe villains at this level are capable of massive c/r bluffs with nothing but a busted flush? Especially against a hero that has fired strong on all 3 streets after a PFR?
Bonesy
11-12-2006, 05:03 PM
I run into tons of players like this at FT. They cc preflop with garbage hoping to hit big and get paid off. At this level they do get paid off hence his big stack. They are also smart enough to get away when behind. Villains hand can easily be things like J6s and T6s too. I'm in the push camp here.
Marshall28
11-12-2006, 05:05 PM
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oh ... and dont c-bet that flop ... thats really terrible because it hit so many possible hands hes holding.
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I disagree, the c-bet is fine. It is heads up and you raised pre-flop and you cannot let overcards or clubs draw for free. Againt st more than one opponent I might think about not c-betting here, but not in position on a single opponent that from the sounds of it, can fold when he doesn't have a hand.
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i suppose youre right .. id just expect to get check raised here a lot cuz these villains are so bad and wont bet this flop w/ top pr ... but also i guess betting is the only way youre going to take this pot down ... so i cant really argue with that.
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You can't worry about getting check raised in spots like this. If that was the plan then he's going to fire the turn anyway and you're only saving a couple of bucks but losing out on far more hands where he fires the turn but would've folded the flop.
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i wasnt worried about it ... lol id just expect it to happen fairly often ... that doesnt change the fact that i agree .. c-bet here is fine if we raise pf and he checks flop to us.
i just wouldnt be playing the hand any further if i encountered resistance ... that is ... until that 8 pops up on the turn
avfletch
11-12-2006, 05:07 PM
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oh ... and dont c-bet that flop ... thats really terrible because it hit so many possible hands hes holding.
[/ QUOTE ]
I disagree, the c-bet is fine. It is heads up and you raised pre-flop and you cannot let overcards or clubs draw for free. Againt st more than one opponent I might think about not c-betting here, but not in position on a single opponent that from the sounds of it, can fold when he doesn't have a hand.
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i suppose youre right .. id just expect to get check raised here a lot cuz these villains are so bad and wont bet this flop w/ top pr ... but also i guess betting is the only way youre going to take this pot down ... so i cant really argue with that.
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You can't worry about getting check raised in spots like this. If that was the plan then he's going to fire the turn anyway and you're only saving a couple of bucks but losing out on far more hands where he fires the turn but would've folded the flop.
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i wasnt worried about it ... lol id just expect it to happen fairly often ... that doesnt change the fact that i agree .. c-bet here is fine if we raise pf and he checks flop to us.
i just wouldnt be playing the hand any further if i encountered resistance ... that is ... until that 8 pops up on the turn
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Without the 8 on the turn I'm checking behind and looking to get a cheap showdown on a non-flush board.
tw0please
11-12-2006, 05:16 PM
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i just wouldnt be playing the hand any further if i encountered resistance ... that is ... until that 8 pops up on the turn
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Yes this was the plan. The c-bet is pretty much 100% for me here when this deep with any 2 I would have raised PF with. I was about to shut down but the 8 on the turn gave me a nice oppportunity to "2nd barrel". Hardest decision was the river obv. TBH I didn't really consider folding this hand until thinking about it afterwards. My biggest reason for not folding was because 6's full looked like a easy possibility. But this deep, can calling be more appropriate? Or am I thinking weak here?
avfletch
11-12-2006, 05:19 PM
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i just wouldnt be playing the hand any further if i encountered resistance ... that is ... until that 8 pops up on the turn
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Yes this was the plan. The c-bet is pretty much 100% for me here when this deep with any 2 I would have raised PF with. I was about to shut down but the 8 on the turn gave me a nice oppportunity to "2nd barrel". Hardest decision was the river obv. TBH I didn't really consider folding this hand until thinking about it afterwards. My biggest reason for not folding was because 6's full looked like a easy possibility. But this deep, can calling be more appropriate? Or am I thinking weak here?
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Everyone in both forums seems to be strongly in the push camp but personally I'd just call since I don't think his range is as big as everyone else. I think its safe to say that you won't be in this position often enough for it to drastically affect your long term results /images/graemlins/smile.gif
Marshall28
11-12-2006, 05:22 PM
as i look over it again i think the chances he has 1010 or JJ are pretty low since these are hands he def. woulda raised.
with that in mind i think that makes 66 really the only hand we are worried about (however we really cant worry about it that much)... you are getting a very good chance to make a big score w/ a concealed hand ... i think u should take it.
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Without the 8 on the turn I'm checking behind and looking to get a cheap showdown on a non-flush board.
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as i look over it again i think the chances he has 1010 or JJ are pretty low since these are hands he def. woulda raised.
with that in mind i think that makes 66 really the only hand we are worried about (however we really cant worry about it that much)... you are getting a very good chance to make a big score w/ a concealed hand ... i think u should take it.
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Also, what hands does he think you have? Have you been very aggressive normally? Could he think you would fire three times with a wiffed AK or have you been a mouse that just woke up? You have a read on him, what is his read on you?
tw0please
11-12-2006, 05:43 PM
My image is aggro, running 23/18/4. Slightly looser than typical tag play raising 1 and 2-gappers.
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My image is aggro, running 23/18/4. Slightly looser than typical tag play raising 1 and 2-gappers.
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That just makes it easier for me to push. He will call with more than just the 66 because he likely perceives me as overly aggressive. However, when I got to thinking about it, if he has a read on you that you are a rock, he could be making a move with a lot less than 66 here so I guess my question was pointless here. I just think pushing here is highest EV play.
[ QUOTE ]
What are you worried about? Puuuuusssssssshhhh it
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Wotsmycode
11-12-2006, 06:30 PM
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CO is 47/7/1.7 over 120 hands. His style is loose passive PF but he has exhibited solid post-flop play and even some creativity on turn and river. Haven't gotten involved with him personally but players have been paying his big hands off. Despite his stats I have him tagged as a thinking player.
Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
6 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)
Stack sizes:
UTG: $32.80
UTG+1: $22.05
CO: $87.70
Hero: $81.45
SB: $24.85
BB: $11.80
Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is Button with 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif
2 folds, CO calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $1.25</font>, 2 folds, CO calls.
Flop: T/images/graemlins/club.gif J/images/graemlins/club.gif 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($2.85, 2 players)
CO checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $2</font>, CO calls.
Turn: 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($6.85, 2 players)
CO checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $5</font>, CO calls.
River: 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($16.85, 2 players)
CO checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $11</font>, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises to $39
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how much more does he have left? if under 40 PUSHH if over 50 min reraise!!!!!! BUT WTF youre good here almost ALWAYS????????????? Dont worry about quads it happens rarely and I pay off anytime anyday! I dont worry about overboat, PAY IT OFFF!!!!!!!!
Wotsmycode
11-12-2006, 06:33 PM
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Also can someone discuss merits of calling vs. pushing here? I am lost on this point, why pushing is necessarily best because of his range here.
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to get value on your monster hands!
the machine
11-12-2006, 07:07 PM
he has a 6. probably 6's full. shove as much as you can in and cry that you dont have more on the table and that he doesnt have more on the table. im never tolding this here
the machine
11-12-2006, 07:10 PM
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Everyone in both forums seems to be strongly in the push camp but personally I'd just call since I don't think his range is as big as everyone else. I think its safe to say that you won't be in this position often enough for it to drastically affect your long term results /images/graemlins/smile.gif
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the guy has a 47 VPIP. his range contains a bare 6
He has so many hands that are not 66,TT,JJ that it would be a crime not to push. If I were him, and I had 6J, I would have played it close to the same.
Also contains a Q9 that made a straight, JT, maybe AJ, other [censored] holdings. This is a push, get all in some how some way.
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He has so many hands that are not 66,TT,JJ that it would be a crime not to push. If I were him, and I had 6J, I would have played it close to the same.
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I discount TT and JJ here, the CO is opening the pot, has a 7% PFR percentage so TT or JJ open for a raise here, and 66 might. I cannot discount 66 as much. I still push here every time. He posted the results in SSNL, and I think I called it correct. /images/graemlins/grin.gif
matrix
11-12-2006, 08:48 PM
push it - push it goooooooooood.
(it's not close)
AnjoRush
11-13-2006, 02:16 AM
you, 23/18, villian 47/7 ... str8 possible, 2 pair possible worse full possible, I see he is passive, but u running over the table, any time someone will play against you with second best hand, i push here.
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