SumZero
02-01-2006, 04:27 AM
Can someone help me with this part of the article:
[ QUOTE ]
If our assumptions are true, then anyone's EV is proportional to his stack size once the bubble bursts. We can reward everyone still in (120 players) the minimum prize ($11,000) and subtract this sum from the total prize pool. This leaves everyone with a stack proportional claim on the remainder (~$6.5 million). The discount ratio (DR) for each remaining chip is then:
DR = 6.5M/7.8M = 0.8314
Therefore, just after the bubble, the EV of any hand can be calculated:
EV = 11K + (stack * 0.8314)
[/ QUOTE ]
This seems to think that chips are equally valuable once the bubble bursts. I think this is foolish as each time the bubble bursts there is a new bubble and chips continue to have non-equal value [more valuable to short stacks, less to big stacks]. Trivially, if one player has a stack that is 4 million chips (out of the 7.8 million chips) the EV formula is predicting a worth of greater than 1st place money.
Now maybe the loss in precision is ok for the authors main point that you should fold JJ and that
[ QUOTE ]
Overall, I think the analysis confirms that the "farm into the money" camp was correct.
[/ QUOTE ]
since the error this assumption makes should make your analysis err by suggesting pushing in some unprofitable places, but IMHO it turns the conclusion into a right answer for not necessarily the right reasons.
[ QUOTE ]
If our assumptions are true, then anyone's EV is proportional to his stack size once the bubble bursts. We can reward everyone still in (120 players) the minimum prize ($11,000) and subtract this sum from the total prize pool. This leaves everyone with a stack proportional claim on the remainder (~$6.5 million). The discount ratio (DR) for each remaining chip is then:
DR = 6.5M/7.8M = 0.8314
Therefore, just after the bubble, the EV of any hand can be calculated:
EV = 11K + (stack * 0.8314)
[/ QUOTE ]
This seems to think that chips are equally valuable once the bubble bursts. I think this is foolish as each time the bubble bursts there is a new bubble and chips continue to have non-equal value [more valuable to short stacks, less to big stacks]. Trivially, if one player has a stack that is 4 million chips (out of the 7.8 million chips) the EV formula is predicting a worth of greater than 1st place money.
Now maybe the loss in precision is ok for the authors main point that you should fold JJ and that
[ QUOTE ]
Overall, I think the analysis confirms that the "farm into the money" camp was correct.
[/ QUOTE ]
since the error this assumption makes should make your analysis err by suggesting pushing in some unprofitable places, but IMHO it turns the conclusion into a right answer for not necessarily the right reasons.