TP2K played passively gets squeezed

[Jouster777]

Villain is 16/10/3.2 over 150 hands. WSD 18, W$SD 0. He was tight and pretty solid.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($77.20)
UTG ($27.75)
MP ($29.45)
Hero ($44.15)
Button ($27.25)
SB ($22.10)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $1</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $1, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls $0.90, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: ($3.25) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $2.75</font>, Hero calls $2.75, SB folds.

Turn: ($8.75) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero checks.

River: ($8.75) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $4</font>, Hero??

<font color="blue">So villain takes a goofy line and I'm getting &gt;2:1 odds for a call. However, I see this villain taking this line more to induce than to bluff. </font>

[lacrymosa]

looks like a value bet. I think an ace is definitely in his range. I'd probably fold.

[Sir Winalot]

I'd fold preflop. River I would call.

[Waingro]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd fold preflop. River I would call.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Ben K]

I'd probably fold pre flop but...

On the flop I'd reraise. There are only 5 hands that beat you and a 10% pf raise figure has a wider range than that. (Assuming the 10 is the pf raise %!!)

If he calls my reraise, I'll either rep AK when the A hits or check behind if he was scaring me with the call.

However, having called the flop, why not bet the turn to rep the flush? If he's tight then he knows where the fold button is so guide him in that direction.

Personally, I don't see this line as inducing but I've tpyed out why I think that 3 times now and still can't make it make sense so I give up. Gut feel perhaps. It just seems like he doesn't know where he stands and is worried by your call, then you check the turn and he thinks there may be a chance to be ahead so he puts out a half pot value bet.

Call the river. You're ahead more often than behind imo.

[pokerchap]

not sure why so many people are telling you to call? im not sure what you beat here? all flushes, aces, and 45 got there.

[Ben K]

The call suggestion is merely based on the way the hand played out and the detail of the villain. There are enough hands that missed to sway to a call.

I'm not sure this villain raises any flushes that hit or 45. He raised from ep, only raises 10% of the time and it a solid player. Imo, it's either a lower pp, or lucky AQ/AJ otherwise calling him a solid player doesn't fit. he could be mixing it up a bit and got lucky I guess.

[is0pr0]

What can you beat but a weaker K. Hes very tight, so you have to give him credit for a hand. The flop is K high with 2 diamonds and he check calls. Hes ver aggressive postflop, so ill rule out AK, but a cll with AQ is possible. The Ad hits which hits all Ax hands and completes the FD. The turn check looks to to induce a bluff for a C/R. I dont see him in there witha weaker K, so I think its a definate fold to an obvious value bet.

[Jouster777]

[ QUOTE ]
What can you beat but a weaker K. Hes very tight, so you have to give him credit for a hand. The flop is K high with 2 diamonds and he check calls. Hes ver aggressive postflop, so ill rule out AK, but a cll with AQ is possible. The Ad hits which hits all Ax hands and completes the FD. The turn check looks to to induce a bluff for a C/R. I dont see him in there witha weaker K, so I think its a definate fold to an obvious value bet.

[/ QUOTE ]Preflop: I usually call with KQ IP but maybe I need to rethink that

Flop: I was kicking myself for not repopping him as Ben K suggests

River: I couldn't think of any reasonable hand I beat so I folded. Even a weaker K would likely check and take his showdown value given all the draws that made it.

Appreciate everyone's input.

[Check_The_Nuts]

call, why not raise? If its a blocker he's smoked /images/graemlins/blush.gif

edited to add, can he really call without a flush, and will he have the flush that often?

[doublesooted]

[ QUOTE ]
not sure why so many people are telling you to call? im not sure what you beat here? all flushes, aces, and 45 got there.

[/ QUOTE ]
not as worried about the 45 as i am the flush, many people semi bluff the flush draw, and that would be cause to check the turn .

[johnc]

I'm folding this pf. Solid player utg, 4x raise, I'm not calling w/KQo. Too many problems can occur such as the one you're in right now -&gt; Hit tp, then what? You'd have to hit the flop twice, IMO against an opponent like this and even then you may not too sure you ahead. PP, suited conns, may be worthy of a call here if you read him as someone who'll pay you off if you hit.

Flop: I'm raising this to define my hand. The villain's bet could be a pp (99+), AK,AJ,AQ,KJs,KQs, maybe ATs all these would tend fall w/in his range. The bet size (~3/4) also tends to make me believe it's also made and less likely a fd.

Turn:The FD came thru, and the check could be a c/r or an attempt at trying to keep the pot small ie marginal hand. The check behind is fine as your hand isn't great either.

River: The weakish &gt;1/2PSB, IMO, is perhaps a response to your turn check(hoping to steal) or a last ditch effort to get some value out of his hand that he feels is best right now. Either way, there's far too many hands you beat that would have played this way ie PP's to not call.

[TyFuji]

The only reason the river decision is hard is because you didn't define your hand earlier. Assuming we call preflop, which I think is a mistake, there's no reason to just call behind here. Raise his flop bet to something substantial. He will have to let go of the A-high or middle pocket pair part of his 10% PFR range, and you'll know what's going on. You might even get a call out of KJs, QQ or JJ. As played, the turn is the worst card in the deck for you, and I think checking behind is correct. I fold this river as well, I don't think you're getting a good enough price considering that his turn check looks a LOT like a c/r attempt and the river bet is so tiny.

[Carmine]

For those of you advocating a flop raise (which I agree with)what amount...pot?

As played what if we were to make a small (1/2 pot?) bet on the turn, with the intention of checking through the river. Easy enough to get away from and we don't get put in this akward spot on the river(IE. we put villian in the decision making process rather than us)

[Sir Winalot]

What is all this stupid mumbo jumbo about raising the flop to define our hand? By raising we're making worse hands fold and only better hands call us. By that we lose loads of value from worse hands which think they're still the best.

Edited to add: Raising the flop also turns our hand pretty much into a bluff.

[ QUOTE ]
Call the river. You're ahead more often than behind imo.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think we're behind more, but we're getting good enough odds to call.

[Ben K]

Carmine, my flop raise would usually be 3 times his raise or the pot if he's dumb enough to put out a min raise. So perhaps $7.50 in this case. I have to kick myself to do it right sometimes 'cos when someone bets pot and I want to raise, 3 times his raise seems so much with TP2K. However, it has been profitable to do it.

Sir Winalot, I kinda agree with the turning the hand into a bluff point. The raise makes our hand appear super strong when it isn't. It's only really going to work if villain has enough chips to not be pot committed by his bet so watching stack sizes is vital in this play. The number of times I've raised then noticed that villain only has a pittance left..... In this case, stack sizes seem okay.