50NL- tough spot with set

[alec2927]

PokerStars Game #6962633123: Holdem No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2006/11/10 - 00:02:14 (ET)
Table Penelope II 6-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: gdaddy63 ($32.25 in chips)
Seat 2: Jaggermeistr ($50.80 in chips)
Seat 3: hero ($42.90 in chips)
Seat 4: timcrook ($40.65 in chips)
Seat 5: fearthedawn ($62.20 in chips)
Seat 6: PedritoRico ($31.40 in chips)
hero: posts small blind $0.25
timcrook: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to hero [T/images/graemlins/heart.gif T/images/graemlins/spade.gif]
fearthedawn: folds
PedritoRico: folds
gdaddy63: calls $0.50
Jaggermeistr: calls $0.50
hero: raises $2 to $2.50
timcrook: calls $2
gdaddy63: folds
Jaggermeistr: calls $2
*** FLOP *** [J/images/graemlins/heart.gif T/images/graemlins/club.gif K/images/graemlins/heart.gif]
hero: bets $3.50
timcrook: raises $34.65 to $38.15 and is all-in
Jaggermeistr: calls $38.15
hero:


Do i expect to be ahead here if i call? What am i up against here most of the time, AK, two pair, or will i see AQ here a lot. I just sat down and have no reads. ( was having trouble with the flopturnriver converter, couldn't get any output, is there a guide to this somewhere?) Thanks.

[Sorcerer808]

I would be more scared of Jagger here, if these players aren't complete donks I'd be inclined to fold there. tim probably has some kind of draw if he shoved this really quickly but the cold call of jagger really looks like AQ.

[Jouster777]

Given Jagger's call, all you fear is a higher set because you now have odds to call for boating up against AQ. Plus, you'll see 2-pair and TPTK enough...I put it in there.

[Sir Winalot]

I call this all day.

[h0ser]

Getting all in on this flop three ways is ugly but you do have the odds to call. Over sets are rare and Jagger limp-called PF which is a weird line for AQ. People seem to love going all in with 2 pair at 50NL and you could even be up against a donk on a flush draw. It seems like a coin toss to me.

[alec2927]

ok so there is about 93 in the pot, and about 36 for me to call. If i knew one villain had AQ, that would be enough odds to call hoping to fill up, i'm getting about 2.5 to 1 right? I thought KK was pretty unlikely given the preflop action.

[TJgniL]

I don't think you're up against JJ/KK and you're getting priced to call against the str8.

[Jouster777]

You are getting 2.5:1 and your odds for beating AQ are about 1.75:1. Preflop makes KK and probably JJ unlikely. Even AQ is a little strange for preflop. You may well find yourself the heavy favorite here.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 63.6111 % 63.17% 00.44% { AQo }
Hand 2: 36.3889 % 35.95% 00.44% { TT }

[alec2927]

ok, that's pretty much what i was thinking... with the amount of money in the pot and the chance i was ahead i called.

turn 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif
river A /images/graemlins/spade.gif

jagg shows A /images/graemlins/heart.gif K /images/graemlins/club.gif
tim shows K /images/graemlins/spade.gif8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

thank you

[Dennisa]

[ QUOTE ]
Given Jagger's call, all you fear is a higher set because you now have odds to call for boating up against AQ. Plus, you'll see 2-pair and TPTK enough...I put it in there.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with your advice. On this board, if someone donked off chips with top two, you may only have 5 outs ont he turn to boat up, as top two take away many of your boat outs. I think this is a hand if it was top set, you can stand the heat, but bottom set is in big trouble. I think he has to dump.

[avfletch]

For starters, don't lead the flop for less than a half PSB. By doing that you don't know if they've done what they have because they are strong or because they think you are weak.

Timcrook could have something but I wouldn't count on it. Get those chips in there.

[kurto]

[ QUOTE ]
ok, that's pretty much what i was thinking... with the amount of money in the pot and the chance i was ahead i called.

turn 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif
river A /images/graemlins/spade.gif

jagg shows A /images/graemlins/heart.gif K /images/graemlins/club.gif
tim shows K /images/graemlins/spade.gif8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

thank you

[/ QUOTE ]

It would help if you had told up Tim was an idiot.

[Jouster777]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Given Jagger's call, all you fear is a higher set because you now have odds to call for boating up against AQ. Plus, you'll see 2-pair and TPTK enough...I put it in there.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with your advice. On this board, if someone donked off chips with top two, you may only have 5 outs ont he turn to boat up, as top two take away many of your boat outs. I think this is a hand if it was top set, you can stand the heat, but bottom set is in big trouble. I think he has to dump.

[/ QUOTE ]
You are saying dump it because Villain 1 may have exactly AQ and Villain 2 may have exactly KJ to go with it? What about combo draws, TPTK, 2-pairs without AQ, AQ without 2-pair, and random crap? Dumping this loses value.

[kurto]

[ QUOTE ]
You are saying dump it because Villain 1 may have exactly AQ and Villain 2 may have exactly KJ to go with it? What about combo draws, TPTK, 2-pairs without AQ, AQ without 2-pair, and random crap? Dumping this loses value.

[/ QUOTE ]

and random idiots ... don't forget!