KK hand - ace on the river

[EricW]

Villain is 40/6 over 60 hands. flop AF is 1.17, turn AF is 1.6, river AF is 3. Should I bet here or check through?

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $74.35
UTG+1: $168.05
Hero: $51.30
Button: $33.10
SB: $48.25
BB: $60.60

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is CO with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif K/images/graemlins/club.gif
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $2.5</font>, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($5.75, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $4</font>, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: 9/images/graemlins/club.gif ($13.75, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $10</font>, UTG+1 calls.

River: A/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($33.75, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero ??</font>

[PietM]

I would check behind here. Chances are he has an Ace, and you would hate a check/raise. (I would, anyway /images/graemlins/wink.gif)

[Vern]

I check behind, he was either on overcards and hit and will at least call or overcards/draw and will fold or has a middle pair or overpair to the board that he could not let go but he won't call a bet with one of these pairs with the way you have played and the ace hitting. I call behind because I don't see him calling with any hands I beat now but either calling or raising me with hands I am behind so even if I fold to the re-raise, I lose the money I bet here and don't win anything for putting it out there.

[ymu]

Not sure. There aren't many hands with an A in them that I expect to still be around on the river. He raises pre-flop pretty tight, but does he call raises as loose as he limps? If he calls loose and calls loose post-flop, then I guess A2-A6 are all possible. If he limp-calls with PPs and calls down with them on this flop, then we're ahead a bit more than we're behind, but maybe not enough to risk getting blasted off the hand.

With a bigger sample size, his aggro-stats suggest that he's maybe a bit trappy - not very aggressive on the flop and turn, more aggressive on the river - but this is over way too small a sample size and he could have lucked out with some draws, so I'd want a real read to decide whether he's trappy or lucky.

I check/bet here about 50/50 depending on villain. I might be more likely to check with this one - I'm a little concerned about a flopped straight/set. With other villains, I'd expect to get called by 77/88/TT/JJ often enough to make it worth a bet, as long as they weren't likely to bluff-raise with anything that doesn't beat me.

[orange]

value bet this all day. Sure its a semi scare card for both of you. but I think he calls w. mid pairs and stuff like that often enough. I would make it $20 here.

[Vern]

[ QUOTE ]
value bet this all day. Sure its a semi scare card for both of you. but I think he calls w. mid pairs and stuff like that often enough. I would make it $20 here.

[/ QUOTE ]
I disagree, I think the Ace was the single worse card, not because he may have called all the way with it, but all those hands that are pairs 6 to queens will be unlikely to call a river bet if I have been betting all along, either had a better PP than them, or I had AK and was c-betting and hit the river. I just don't see them calling with a worse hand often enough to make this a value bet situation.

[Wu36]

Agree with orange, theres still value in betting. Most pps &gt;6 will call here more than enough IMO. I also can't see him checking too many hands that beat us here.

[EricW]

Ok, here's the rest of the hand:

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $74.35
UTG+1: $168.05
Hero: $51.30
Button: $33.10
SB: $48.25
BB: $60.60

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is CO with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif K/images/graemlins/club.gif
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $2.5</font>, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($5.75, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $4</font>, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: 9/images/graemlins/club.gif ($13.75, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $10</font>, UTG+1 calls.

River: A/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($33.75, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $15.5</font>, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises to $31</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero ???</font>

[orange]

I would fold. I think you see a flopped set or something of the like alot.

[Wu36]

instafold, his line is insanely strong.

[Vern]

You are getting 4:1 from the pot, so you have to be good here 20% of the time to break even, but river check raises generally mean "I have top pair beat" and you don't, so I fold.

[Sir Winalot]

[ QUOTE ]
I would check behind here. Chances are he has an Ace, and you would hate a check/raise. (I would, anyway /images/graemlins/wink.gif)

[/ QUOTE ]
What Ax do you think he could have? IMHO he doesn't have an ace here often.

[eigenvalue]

This is an insta-check for me. If You bet, most hands that are beaten will not call. And I don't like to give someone a chance to checkraise me in this spot, because I think I would fold alomst every time he does this.

Instead, I want to see with what kind of holding he called me all the way down. If he called with something weak,
maybe the next time I'll change my mind and make a river bet, too. But not the first time in a hand with a player who called 3 tough bets.