Moved up to 50NL and getting slapped - spot any leaks? [Archive]

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Peoples Elbow

11-10-2006, 02:39 AM

So I've been at 50NL now for over a week and just can't seem to get anything going. Trying to figure out what the hell is going wrong... I killed 25NL with looser stats (more like 24/17), but tightened up a bit OOP because the 50NL players seemed to be a lot tougher.

Not a huge sample, but wondering if anybody spots something alarming. There have been some terrible coolers in this sample, but besides that I just can't seem to get anything going.

I also filtered at bottom of first pic to show my worst losing hands (net).

Any help greatly appreciated... thanks.

http://www.travelpav.com/stats_1.gif
http://www.travelpav.com/stats_2.gif
My 25NL stats for comparison:
http://www.travelpav.com/stats_3.gif

NSchandler

11-10-2006, 02:51 AM

Hard to tell too much from just stats, especially over a small sample like this. But, you do need to be more positionally aware. My UTG and UTG+1 VPIPs are like 13% and 15% and my button's VPIP over 30%. At least, last time I checked.

SavageMiser

11-10-2006, 03:03 AM

The Won $ At SD numbers are low, so you may be calling with second best at the river a bit too much.

Vern

11-10-2006, 03:05 AM

Win more at SD.

Really, both sample sizes are too small to have overcome the noise associated with normal swings and a 367 PTBB downswing is actually very likely.
This is a calc run on 8200 hands with a SD/100 of 65PTBB and true win rate of 10PTBB.

http://img148.imageshack.us/img148/7829/variance1rv2.png (http://imageshack.us)

I then ran the calc on 1 million hands with the same stats:
http://img142.imageshack.us/img142/26/variance2kv9.png (http://imageshack.us)
Note, the largest down swing during that 1 million cycle was -1362 PTBBs which is cind of extreme, generally at that SD for NL calculations it ranges -600 to -1300 for a million hands run, but you can no see the apparent win rate is much closer to the true win rate because the noise has been reduced due to the volume of hands.

Note, the first variance run I waited till I got a negative result, which took about 5 runs. The second graph always looks like that when done over a million hands, only slight variation from about apparent win rate of 9.5BB/100 to 10.5BB/100

Peoples Elbow

11-10-2006, 11:29 AM

I appreciate the help guys. I'm gathering I need to loosen up a little bit more on the button, and tighten up even more UTG and UTG+1. Just curious - to those winning players with overall VPIP of >22

- are you limping a lot in position, or still raising any limpers if you've got the button and a mediocre hand?

- If your VPIP is 22-25%, what in your opinion is a good PFR%?

Just trying to adapt a little bit more LAG style, and fine tuning down in these limits is just what I need. Thanks.

mrpotto

11-10-2006, 11:56 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I appreciate the help guys. I'm gathering I need to loosen up a little bit more on the button, and tighten up even more UTG and UTG+1. Just curious - to those winning players with overall VPIP of >22

- are you limping a lot in position, or still raising any limpers if you've got the button and a mediocre hand?

- If your VPIP is 22-25%, what in your opinion is a good PFR%?

[/ QUOTE ]

Like to hear answers here too. I'm not killing even the NL $25 stakes (2BB/100). My stats are 27/16/2. I've begun to fold many more hands UTG and UTG+1 but probably need to tighten up even more.

As an aside I think the primary reason I'm not winning more is that I spew $$$ at least once a session doing stuff like this:

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
2 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Pre-flop: (2 players) hero is BB with http://www.neildewhurst.com/wp-content/images/classic-cards/4h.png http://www.neildewhurst.com/wp-content/images/classic-cards/5c.png
SB raises to $0.5, hero raises to $2, SB calls $1.5 (pot was $2.15).

Flop: http://www.neildewhurst.com/wp-content/images/classic-cards/9h.png http://www.neildewhurst.com/wp-content/images/classic-cards/6d.png http://www.neildewhurst.com/wp-content/images/classic-cards/7d.png ($4, 2 players)
hero bets $3, SB calls $3 (pot was $7).

Turn: http://www.neildewhurst.com/wp-content/images/classic-cards/th.png ($10, 2 players)
hero bets $4, SB calls $4 (pot was $14).

River: http://www.neildewhurst.com/wp-content/images/classic-cards/2s.png ($18, 2 players)
hero is all-in $16.6, SB calls $16.6 (pot was $34.6).

Results:
Final pot: $51.2
hero showed 4h 5c
SB showed Ks Kh

and this:

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
5 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Pre-flop: (5 players) hero is Button with http://www.neildewhurst.com/wp-content/images/classic-cards/qc.png http://www.neildewhurst.com/wp-content/images/classic-cards/ah.png
UTG folds, CO raises to $0.9, hero calls $0.9 (pot was $1.25), 2 folds.

Flop: http://www.neildewhurst.com/wp-content/images/classic-cards/9h.png http://www.neildewhurst.com/wp-content/images/classic-cards/3h.png http://www.neildewhurst.com/wp-content/images/classic-cards/kh.png ($2.15, 2 players)
CO bets $1.4, hero calls $1.4 (pot was $3.55).

Turn: http://www.neildewhurst.com/wp-content/images/classic-cards/4d.png ($4.95, 2 players)
CO bets $3, hero raises to $9, CO calls $6 (pot was $16.95).

River: http://www.neildewhurst.com/wp-content/images/classic-cards/3s.png ($22.95, 2 players)
CO checks, hero bets $5.5, CO calls all-in $5.5.

Results:
Final pot: $33.95
CO showed As Ac
hero showed Qc Ah

I have thought about taping a nice sized index card to monitor that says ABSENT READS DON'T BLUFF!!!!!

maso

11-10-2006, 12:08 PM

Your losing lots of money with dominated hands AJ AT KT maybe thats your problem.

Vern

11-10-2006, 12:09 PM

Sir Winalot

11-10-2006, 02:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I killed 25NL with looser stats (more like 24/17), but tightened up a bit OOP because the 50NL players seemed to be a lot tougher.

[/ QUOTE ]
Read The biggest mistake you can make when "moving up." (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Board=microplnl&Number=7392389) by pokey.

Peoples Elbow

11-10-2006, 02:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I killed 25NL with looser stats (more like 24/17), but tightened up a bit OOP because the 50NL players seemed to be a lot tougher.

[/ QUOTE ]
Read The biggest mistake you can make when "moving up." (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Board=microplnl&Number=7392389) by pokey.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ha - I think that thread pretty much nails it. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

Good read, thanks!

Spleen

11-10-2006, 02:58 PM

Bluffing and picking off bluffs gets expensive at this level it seems.