NL25 (FR): A9o flops trips, villain likes his hand - value bet river?

[ymu]

Villain seemed pretty normal - nothing obvious sticks out except weirdly small turn bets. I'd only seen him play a couple of big hands by this point. One he completed with 96s in the SB, flopped bottom 2 on a drawy board, bet pot on the flop, called a 3/4 pot-sized raise and led a blank turn for less than half pot, calling the short-stack villain AI. The other he looked like he called a raise OTB with a mid-suited connector - raised to 3x the pot-sized c-bet on a 5c6s7s board, bet half pot on an 8h turn and pushed for full pot on a blank river - no showdown.

Betting pattern for both of these is similar to the one below for flop and turn - pot-sized lead, less than half pot on turn with (in the hands I'd seen) decent but maybe not nut hands (I think the 8 may have counterfeited him in the second hand - or he had T9s for the nut straight and flush draw on the turn - maybe even As9s).

He hasn't seen me play any huge hands - one against a shortish stack where I raised TT preflop, c-bet an AQx flop (check-called by villain) and got it all-in on a T turn (villain had AQo). I've been playing fairly tight, but raising from the button fairly liberally.


MP2 $28.05
MP3 $35.96
CO $9.95
Hero (Button) $35.38
SB $25.35
BB $23.10
UTG $11.65
UTG+1 $23.95
MP1 $11.52

Dealt to Hero: A/images/graemlins/spade.gif 9/images/graemlins/club.gif
4 folds, <font color="green">MP3 calls</font>, 1 fold, <font color="red">Hero raise to $1.25</font>, 2 folds, <font color="green">MP3 calls $1</font>

Flop ($3): 3/images/graemlins/club.gif 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif
<font color="red">MP3 bets $3</font>, <font color="green">Hero calls $3</font>

Turn ($9): T/images/graemlins/heart.gif
<font color="red">MP3 bets $3</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $9</font>, <font color="green">MP3 calls $6</font>

River ($27): 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
<font color="red">MP3 bets $5</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $22.13 and is all in</font>


I didn't raise him on the flop because I figured he could do this with any PP and I'd be happy if he led the turn.

The turn puts a couple of draws on the board - I'm not too worried that he has any of them - maybe something like Ah3h - but there are loads of cards which could kill the river action so I figured it was time to raise. I raised pretty small to try and keep him in with a weaker hand - a lot of PPs find it hard to fold here, and I thought he could have a strangely played overpair.

When he led the river, I really wasn't sure what he could have. I obviously wasn't folding, but I wasn't sure if a push was a great idea. There aren't any straights or flushes to worry about, it will (probably) get value out of a weaker 9, but no full house is folding and most PPs are.

I decided to push in the end because of his betting pattern in previous hands - similar flop and turn bets as in this one, and in the one where I'm sure he had at least the second nut straight he'd pushed the river for a PSB against a deep-stacked opponent. Given that, this river lead seemed too weak for a FH - it looked more like a blocking bet from a weaker hand looking for a cheap showdown - and I beat/split with all the weaker hands he could have. Of course, my read in the previous hand that didn't get shown down could have been wrong - maybe he was bluffing a missed NFD then and trying to induce a push now ...

Is the push OK, or spew?

[NSchandler]

I'd raise more on the turn.

As played, I think the push is fine. The T kind of sucks because T9 and TT are both in his range, but he'll still call with JJ, a weaker 9, whatever.

[Vern]

On the turn, I raise it the full pot ($15) and would be extatic if he called or raised as we are getting all in on the river one way or another. I don't think I could get away from trips with top kicker. If he stacks me, so be it.

Knowing what you know about him, it might be safer to raise the flop, since you said he likes to PSB with strong hands then smaller bets on the turn with them. Test him before he gets to the turn or make the read on the turn. Me, I will generally lose my stack when it is HU before the flop and I flop trips with ace kicker.

[Spleen]

My first reaction was just call the river but I could be convinced a push is a good idea here also with the read you had. I'd like to hear more comments on this hand. With me it would probably, sadly enough, depend on how well/poor I had been running lately. I would expect to lose here about ~50% of the time maybe?.

[Sir Winalot]

Your commentary is tl;dr. But looking at the hand I think you should make it more like 11-12 on turn. River push is standard.

[ymu]

I agree that the turn raise is very small. The reason was that I really didn't put him on any kind of draw - Ah3h was the only plausible one. He didn't strike me as bluffy or loose, so something like a naked flush draw or KQ/78 seemed very unlikely given the pot-sized lead on the flop.

Given all this, I figured giving him 3:1 wasn't too risky - I was trying to get some value out of PPs and make the pot big enough for a push on the river if he had the case 9.

I'm definitely not convinced that the small turn raise was the right move - I almost never raise this small. If I had a read that he could get very stubborn with a PP, especially if I'd seen him slow play QQ+ before, then I think a larger raise would be better to make sure he's pot-committed on the river. As it was, he seemed like a decent tight-ish player (albeit with some turn bet-sizing issues) so I wanted to make it pretty easy for him to call the raise.

I've also thought a bit about what I would have done if he'd pushed the turn. I have a maximum of 7 outs against 33, 4 against T9 and 1 against TT. Raising to $9 lets me get away if I'm fairly sure he wouldn't push without a full house - raising to $15 leaves me with $16 to call into a $55 pot, which pretty much prices me in if I give him any % bluff. So I'm kind of conflicted about making a much bigger raise - I can't see it getting called, only folded or pushed over, and I'm not sure that pricing myself into calling a push here is a great idea (against some villains - it's pure gold against others).

[ymu]

Results:

Villain tanked, said "this sucks", and folded. He asked me if I'd had T9. Said he folded A9. I think I believe him - but I can't believe he folded it. If it's true, I guess he folded for the same reason as I hesitated to push.

Guess I'm glad I didn't pot commit him on the turn /images/graemlins/laugh.gif but that was definitely a debatable turn raise size.