How would you handle AA here on the flop on button?

[Haplo]

I had a bad feeling I was beat when dude went all-in (no info on limper). It was 14 more to call and about 36 in pot. Felt committed.

Would a pre-flop raise to say 5xbb have been better from button given there was already one limper? What do some of you typically do with that hand in that position?

Comment appreciated. Thanks.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
9 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $24.10
UTG+1: $20.80
MP1: $10
MP2: $57.45
MP3: $19.05
Hero: $27.35
Button: $15
SB: $57.10
BB: $25

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is CO with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif A/images/graemlins/spade.gif
UTG calls, 4 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $1</font>, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls.

Flop: 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif T/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($3.25, 4 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $1.75</font>, UTG calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $9</font>, SB folds, <font color="#cc0000">UTG raises all-in $23.1</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($51.2, 2 players + 1 all-in - Main pot: $51.2)


River: 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($51.2, 2 players + 1 all-in - Main pot: $51.2)


Results:
Final pot: $51.2

KEEP RESULTS OUT

-EMc

[jonyy6788]

I would have raised to 1.25, this is an ugly flop to be all-in with.

[jdefoe]

raise to 5 on the flop, and when he puts u all in , fold

[CrustyFace]

Raise more preflop, 4xBB + a BB for each limper, to $1.5.

Don't forget here that his reraise all-in on the flop is not indicative of a straight, there are all sorts of hands that have you beat here. The flopped straight makes it seem worse but in fact you played it badly by not considering his AI for something weaker than the straight.

[Fazz86]

Raise to at least 1.50 PF. Fold after he pushes.

[orange]

Call the all in. You'll see AK/diamonds/etc alot.

[Oranzith]

man tough, results oriented crowd.

Raising to 5 is like a minraise. He bet the pot which was good. I don't know how we fold to the push, I expect to see combo-draws quite often. Maybe its the right plan, I dunno. Depends how often the villain likely pushes with 2 pair or a set

[iraise50]

I raise more preflop, and...I dunno I guess I get stacked but I put him on a draw often enough to call the flop push.

[Vern]

I at least pot it pre-flop, but that is only $0.10 more. I don't think that makes a difference, likely neither would $1.50. If you play tight/aggressive, you need to make all your raises the same so you cannot go harder because you have AA or you will get chewed up with your lesser raises.

As played, I raise pot on the flop with an over pair, so $8.50 to your 9. Again, I like to stay consistent with my psb's. When he pushes I would tank. What percent of the time does he have to have a draw to make it correct to call.

Assumptions, he either has a straight (1) or he has a two card flush draw(2). I Ignored 99, TT, KK because I think the average player would raise these UTG although it is possible for 99 to limp. I also ignored the straight draw because I don’t think it is likely a straight draw does this on a 2 flush board unless they also have the flush draw and are therefore covered under (2) above.

In 1, you win ~7.5% of the time so your EV is
Win%*Pot-Lose%Call$
(0.075*35.35)-(0.925*15.85)=-$12.01=EV1 the EV when he has the straight

In 2, you win 60% of the time so your EV is
(0.60*35.35)-(0.925*15.85)=+$14.87=EV2 the EV when he is on a draw

So where is your break even point? X is the chance he is on a draw

((1-X)*EV1)+(X*EV2)=0

Solve for X

EV1-(X*EV1)+(X*EV2)=0
(X*EV2)-(X*EV1)=-EV1
X*(EV2-EV1)=-EV1
X=-EV1/(EV2-EV1)
X=EV1/(EV1-EV2)
X=-12.01/(-12.01-14.87)
X=-12.01/-26.88=45% on a draw

So if you think the normal player could do this 45%+ with a flush draw, you have to call. Generally I don’t credit lower flush draws with playing this way. We have the ace, so we have to decide how often the Qx/images/graemlins/diamond.gif would do this, with the extreme being the QT/images/graemlins/diamond.gif for the 2 card second nut flush draw, middle pair and gutshot straight draw. That hand is actually a favorite to you as well, 53:47 for an X of -12.01/-20.22=60% if you determine the only likely hands to play this are a two card diamond draw with the Queen (second nut flush) and a pair (Tens).

Without the time to do all that math, I did figure the chance I need himed to be doing this on a draw at about 50% which the math seems to support between any two card diamond draw (45%) and just the QT/images/graemlins/diamond.gif draw (60%)

I wish you had stopped the post after his three bet on the flop. I think I would evaluate that I am behind and drawing to ~2 outs and fold without a better read. I cannot say that with confidence because I know he had the straight and you were drawing to your backdoor flush and straight which were your ~2 outs.

[Sir Winalot]

[ QUOTE ]
raise to 5 on the flop, and when he puts u all in , fold

[/ QUOTE ]
woot?!? No way I'm folding on this drawy flop.

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise more preflop, 4xBB + a BB for each limper, to $1.5.



[/ QUOTE ]

He raised one limper, so that would be to $1.25. But actually, it's not going to make a damn bit of difference in the long run whether he raises 3xBB+1 or 4xBB+1, assuming he always raises one amount or the other, or he randomly mixes it up.

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
I would have raised to 1.25

[/ QUOTE ]

I like bananas and yogurt for breakfast.


[ QUOTE ]
This is an ugly flop to be all-in with.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a fine flop with which to be all-in, since the limper will have a draw a lot of the time.

[avfletch]

Are we really expecting to see a draw come out of UTG? Frankly I'm expecting this to be a big hand a large percentage of the time.

The slow play to start with, wake up when someone shows real interest line is a prime donkey set/2pair line in my experience.

[Check_The_Nuts]

Whoa, nevermind, missed the action of the 3rd guy.

IMO, your overplaying AA here. Do you raise AKo on the flop?

I think since the pot is 3 way SB can't possible lead out bluff on the turn. If it comes a heart and he has a flush, he'll bet, otherwise he'll check. He's got to expect a flush is out there. I think your somewhat wasting your positional advantage with the flop raise.

Also if you call and shove a safe turn, you look a lot like some draw, and will probably get paid off by a wide range.

[tomonbass]

WHAT!!! NO WAY YOUR FOLDING!!!

This is the easiest fold in the world....

Some of you guys need to learn how to fold aces....

You reraised a little too much IMO too on the flop $4.50 to $6.50 is fine....

The guys are right about the pf raises though 4BB + 1BB pre limper is good /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[tomonbass]

Sorry missed the caller!!! Flop raise is fine then but you still gotta run to that all in ... /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I dont mind calling and seeing what happens on the turn either with An overpair (more A pot control thing) I dont think you can take too much heat here in this spot...

[BukNaked36]

I call.

With this draw heavy flop and two villians, you shouldn't raise unless you plan on calling a push.

[Phytopath]

This is a real tough spot, no question. Smooth calling the initial bet, then going over the top is a very strong move. I probably fold without a read, but again it is very villian dependant against a draw pusher or someone who thinks TPTK is the nuts this is a no brainer call, against a rock this is a no brainer fold.

I really think the PF sequence is irrelevant, 1$, 1.15$ or 1.25$ doesn't make much difference.

[degenrat]

Was the villain in this hand wolfsburg2?

I am pretty sure i played this exact hand. but the flop bet looks weak. maybe a different hand.

[kazana]

I can see villain flat-calling then pushing with these possibilities:
- Nut flush draw, maybe combined with GSD
- Flopped monster

I find it hard to believe that he is pushing with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (we're holding the card for the nut flush), so I'd discount that possibility.

So, I guess I'll fold this more often than not.