Do you call this river raise?

[Sorcerer808]

Villain had been aggressive on the button, I was hoping to take the pot down PF

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button ($50.30)
Hero ($50)
BB ($60.70)
UTG ($32.40)
MP ($27)
CO ($55.35)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $2</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $6</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls $4.

Flop: ($12.50) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $8</font>, Button calls $8.

Turn: ($28.50) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, Button checks.

River: ($28.50) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $18</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $36</font>, Hero ??

[Imrahil]

I fold to the river raise. There's no way he's doing this with three eights or a straight. He probably has the Ad.

[Sir Winalot]

Fine untill turn, I'd probably lead for 23 and see what happens. River I'm not sure about, I'd probably call this with this good odds but I wouldn't like it too much. I think we're going to see a Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif or J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif often enough.

[Imrahil]

[ QUOTE ]
Fine untill turn, I'd probably lead for 23 and see what happens. River I'm not sure about, I'd probably call this with this good odds but I wouldn't like it too much. I think we're going to see a Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif or J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif often enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think we ever see a Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif or J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif here. He would never raise with it.

[Pokey]

The pot is offering you 4.6-to-1 odds on a call, here; your hand only needs to be good 18% of the time for calling to be +EV. You are behind villain's range, but you are not locked out by it. Villain makes this move with A8, a straight, a weaker diamond, or a pure bluff often enough for calling to be +EV, though not by much. Call expecting to lose, but knowing that you'll be pleasantly surprised often enough for this to be the right play.

[Imrahil]

Would villain really min-raise here with trips eights with four diamonds on board?? I can't imagine being infront at least 18% of the time here. I feel more like 10%.

[Sir Winalot]

[ QUOTE ]
Would villain really min-raise here with trips eights with four diamonds on board?? I can't imagine being infront at least 18% of the time here. I feel more like 10%.

[/ QUOTE ]
Our bet,check,bet line just screams "I'm a bluff, please snap me off!!" that I think he'd raise AI with a much wider range than normally.

[Pokey]

[ QUOTE ]

Would villain really min-raise here with trips eights with four diamonds on board??


[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. Villain would also potentially min-raise here with total air, hoping to buy you off your hand and knowing that if you fold even half the time, he's making money on the play. Villain could also assume you DON'T have a diamond (because of the flop check and river blocking bet), put you on an 8, and raise for value with a hand that's totally dominated crap, like a small diamond.

Never underestimate the power of an aggressive opponent to talk himself into an aggressive play, especially if you play a relatively weak-tight game. Besides, an 18% winrate is a ridiculously low bar to hurdle; his range can be VERY dominant and STILL this call is +EV. Think of it this way: if villain's range is nothing but "Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gifx, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gifx, 33, 66, 77, 88, 87, 86, 83, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif" we have 41% pot equity, and the call is incredibly +EV. If villain only minraises Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gifx HALF the time, it's STILL very safely +EV. All of that even when every other hand in villain's range beats ours -- we haven't even talked about J/images/graemlins/diamond.gifx or 54o or A8 or AA or any other random hands that villain may be bluffing with. With a hand as strong as a K-high flush, it's very hard to not be ahead at least 18% of the time at showdown.

This is a call.