Can good play early in the hand be ruined by bad play later?

[essence86]

Hi!

If I constantly make good EV+ plays early in the hand, say pre-flop and on flop. Can this be ruined by bad play on the turn and river.

I mean, say I flop a set, and the river completes the flush, if a guy bets, even fairly heavy, I will probably pay him off. Perhaps not if he pushes all-in and we have deep stacks, but that is not very likely at this level.

If I bet pot on flop and turn, I give him 2:1 pot odds to call. He need 4:1. So in theory, he makes an EV- play, right? But if he can win a large bet from me on the river (implied odds), and I pay him off, who is the sucker? Whos EV would be negative in the long run?

[Vammakala]

In short: Yes.

Not sure if it applied to your examples all so well, but I there was a post on short-stack play recently that went into these subjects pretty well.

To the later streets you go in a hand, the bigger the EV for the winning hand usually is. Like when you bet on the river, you or your opponent is always drawing dead (or splitting). Either way, if you bet $5 with the best hand and get called 100% of the time, your EV for the move is $5. If you bet $5 on say... the turn against a guy with 5 outs, the EV for the $5 is 0.88 * $5 = $4.4 (if called 100% of the time). If you bet on flop against the same 5 outs, your EV will be ~$3.9.

But sometimes it is possible to bet enough so that it doesn't matter what you do on the river and it's still +EV. Even though you can of course maximize your winnings by making the correct laydown when you get outdrawn but even if you don't, you're winning. It's kind of like the example you gave with the implied odds. Say your opponents has (for simplicity) $3 behind and you cover. Pot is $2 on turn and your opponent holds a flushdraw and you hold a set. He needs 4-to-1 pot odds to make a call. Now if you bet $1, he does get 3-to-1 but he can probably win $1+ of you on the river, making it correct for him to call. But if you bet $2, he's getting 2-to-1. Now he'd need to make $2*2 more on the river to make it a BREAKEVEN play. So even if he outdraws you and call for the remainder of his stack, you end up ahead in the long run (folding a set in this spot would be a crime too).

Your EV in this case will be $2*(4/5) - $3*(1/5) = +$0.9

But make no mistake, turn and river do matter generally more than preflop and flop.

[ChipStorm]

Bad play by definition is -EV, doesn't matter what street.

[matrix]

I'll answer your question with a question.

Villain a never raises preflop - he plays 95% of his hands and will call any and all preflop bets (apart from pushes)

His preflop strategy is very bad and is -EV

However postflop he plays very well can accurately and consistantly deduce other players hands and after the flop he never puts money into the pot unless he's ahead or has odds to draw.

Villain B plays *perfectly* preflop - he's read teh books - memorised the hand charts knows where and when and who to 3-bet and what with and won't call with dominated hands ever.

Sadly postflop he's not so good he fails miserably at reading peoples hands and overplays Big pairs.

Bearing in mind that the bet sizes preflop are usually at most 12BB and the pot preflop is usually very small compared to the stacks - and that river bets are frequently stack sized and pots can be many hundreds of BB's in size...

Who makes more money? - Villain A - or Villain B??

[kurto]

The deeper your stack, the more important postflop play is to preflop play.

If you're great preflop and flop and stink at the turn and river... you are an ideal shortstack player.

If your decisions at the turn and river stink, then you will do worse as you and your opponents stacks get deeper.

[Sir Winalot]

[ QUOTE ]
Bad play by definition is -EV, doesn't matter what street.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, and the turn and river are the most expensive streets as pokey stated in his post about playing short stacked. If I recall the river bet in the example was worth over 100x the preflop bet.

[essence86]

Hi!

great answers! Thanks!

To answer your question: Villain B will make more money.
I´m starting to realize the pre-flop isn´t that damn important, when compared to later street play.

But...When playing 0.10-0.25NL, you can hardly ever scare someone off a hand. Bluffing with big bets seems to be throwing money in the lake!
So, what can I do besides playing big preflop hands?
I´ll try to answer myself here, please correct me.

I should limp a lot more hands (no need to raise unless in position), and try to take advantage of villains not folding their top pair, thus making more money on the expensive streets and taking advantage of and increased win chance?

[essence86]

Sry, Of course I mean Villain A will make more money.

So basically, "loose" pre-flop play can help you improve reading hands, forcing yourself into those positions?

If I call with a hand, being a 6-4 underdog preflop, this wont be such a horrible mistake? If I now I can win a decent amount postflop?

[kurto]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi!

great answers! Thanks!

To answer your question: Villain B will make more money.
I´m starting to realize the pre-flop isn´t that damn important, when compared to later street play.

But...When playing 0.10-0.25NL, you can hardly ever scare someone off a hand. Bluffing with big bets seems to be throwing money in the lake!
So, what can I do besides playing big preflop hands?
I´ll try to answer myself here, please correct me.

I should limp a lot more hands (no need to raise unless in position), and try to take advantage of villains not folding their top pair, thus making more money on the expensive streets and taking advantage of and increased win chance?

[/ QUOTE ]

That is a valid strategy. Though TAG still works best.

BTW- if you get a big stack, you can bluff more. Your respect typically goes up with your stacksize.

[matrix]

[ QUOTE ]
Sry, Of course I mean Villain A will make more money.

So basically, "loose" pre-flop play can help you improve reading hands, forcing yourself into those positions?

If I call with a hand, being a 6-4 underdog preflop, this wont be such a horrible mistake? If I now I can win a decent amount postflop?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes /images/graemlins/smile.gif

The key part here being if you play goot postflop

the more hands you play the more decisions you have to make the more decisions you have to make the more often you have to read hands - the more times you try guessing at someones hand the better you get at it.

When I was learning the basics I sucked at reading hands - I would often spend 3-4 buyins playing about 70% of my preflop hands putting myself in awkward decisions and try to postflop play my way out of them - tho I eventually found it was better to play just good hands from EP and 100% of hands from the CO/Button doing this as position is so important.