Can I get away from this full house (10 NL FR)? [Archive]

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AaronOC

11-09-2006, 07:58 AM

Or is it just a must go broke situation? Villan has been very tight but not very aggressive. I think about 18/4/1. The only hand I could really put him on was AQs.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

I am holding 66

MP3 ($9.15)
CO ($3.85)
Button ($6.35)
SB ($8.25)
BB ($10)
UTGA ($9.95)
UTG+1 ($15.70)
MP1 ($10.95)
MP2 ($14.20)

Preflop:
UTGA raises to $0.35, 6 folds, SB calls $0.30, 1 fold.

Flop: ($0.80) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
SB checks, UTGA bets $0.3, SB raises to $1, UTGA calls $0.70.

Turn: ($2.80) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
SB checks, UTGA bets $1.3, SB raises to $6.9, UTGA calls $5.60.

River: ($16.60) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)

Final Pot: $16.60

homeslice

11-09-2006, 08:00 AM

What are you holding?

AaronOC

11-09-2006, 08:08 AM

sorry, i am holding 66 it is edited now

kabouter

11-09-2006, 08:09 AM

No just push it, and suck it up if he has KK or KQ. Or QQ hmmm that would be nice /images/graemlins/wink.gif

AaronOC

11-09-2006, 08:13 AM

is it always right to push here even though I have the worst full house?

matrix

11-09-2006, 08:21 AM

YOU FLOPPED A SET - GET THE MONEY IN THE MIDDLE.

Either 3bet all in on the flop or call and push any turn.

That turn is a beautiful card.

If he has KQ thats the way the cookie disintegrates sometimes - AQ QJ AK Ax /images/graemlins/club.gif - all of them crushed by our powerful full house hand we lose to KK KQ (and very very very rarely) QQ we beat many more hands than we lose to super deluxe easy all-in.

tojx

11-09-2006, 08:23 AM

I think you get TP, trips or a flush here quite often. And only a few hands that are beating you. +EV play IMHO

AaronOC

11-09-2006, 08:29 AM

[ QUOTE ]
YOU FLOPPED A SET - GET THE MONEY IN THE MIDDLE.

Either 3bet all in on the flop or call and push any turn.

That turn is a beautiful card.

If he has KQ thats the way the cookie disintegrates sometimes - AQ QJ AK Ax /images/graemlins/club.gif - all of them crushed by our powerful full house hand we lose to KK KQ (and very very very rarely) QQ we beat many more hands than we lose to super deluxe easy all-in.

[/ QUOTE ]that's what I was thinking but we also have to remember that a solid tight player will not push here with trips as they know the only hand that is calling them is a better one. Is this not also true?

kabouter

11-09-2006, 08:33 AM

no, if I would have hit trips with a top kicker I would probably still bet. He might have pocket aces too which he just can't part with.
How large is the hand sample on this villain btw? That matters too.

AaronOC

11-09-2006, 09:57 AM

quite a few hands about 150 at this stage

the_muppeteer

11-09-2006, 10:24 AM

Do you want to get away from this hand? PUSH!

AaronOC

11-09-2006, 10:33 AM

i suppose it's just one of those do or die situations, my gut told me I was beat though

InfectorGadget

11-09-2006, 10:37 AM

I presume you are UTGA here...

PF Im not sure I think raising is profitable FR with a small PP like 66, I guess thats debateble, but I dont like it.

You hit good on the flop, but your hand is vulnerable, so you have got to bet. Hands like AKs, AJs, ATs, Kx, TJs are all hands who are trying to outdraw you, so you have to bet bigger, closer to the pot. When he reraises your bet, I think you have to repop it, dont let him draw for cheap, make it $3.

Turn is a great card, not straight/flushdraws arent scary anymore, so just go ahead and bet the pot and get it in, if he has KQ, KK, QQ or even Q6, too bad, you are getting the money in, cause he might as easily have TP, trips, pair+FD and maybe even a bluff, you will see many weird things here. Weird he C/r you twice, so I guess he has something worthwhile. Seems he improved with that Q and would like you to bet again.

matrix

11-09-2006, 11:02 AM

[ QUOTE ]
a solid tight player will not push here with trips as they know the only hand that is calling them is a better one. Is this not also true?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sorry to break this to you but there are no solid players at $10NL. None - zero - zipola - less than 1.

there are some players that aren't too bad - there are players that look solid if you squint a bit - there are plenty of tight players - there are players that make solid plays sometimes - and there are players who have stats of 18/4/1 who are actually nits that don't raise nearly enough, most probably fail to get value from their good hands unless they run into nuts v 2nd nuts (like I'm guessing this hand was) and in the long run if they keep up with tier nitty mc passively non-raising ways are doomed to break even at best.

But you should never in a month of Tuesdays be trying to get away from a flopped set/turned boat at any level for just 100BB's without the mother of all reads.

You have the little sisters third cousin of a read.

Even a super nit like this guy who check raises you twice we can't get away from because our hand is a) very disguised and b) very very strong

How do we know that this guy oesn't overvalue/overplay AA when he gets it? how do we know that he doesn't do the same with AK or AQ or has decided to get tricky and semi-bluff you with his flush draw?

We beat most of his range - we win this hand very often, sometimes we lose - but if you could replay this hand 100 times add up all the times you win and subtract all the times you lose you'd end up with a positive number - so we have to get it all-in here everytime.