mid pp, can i call this river? Nl50

[n1nj4.br]

Villian is 33/10/4.13 ~400 hands.
Went to showdown 24% and won$ at showdown 40%.
Calls 14% of cbets, because of that i decided that cbeting flop is bad because only better hands call us. Do u call this turn?

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $33.50
Hero: $186.50
CO: $56.10
Button: $51.20
SB: $94.25
BB: $63.90

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG+1 with 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $2</font>, CO calls, 3 folds.

Flop: J/images/graemlins/heart.gif 3/images/graemlins/club.gif 2/images/graemlins/club.gif ($4.75, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">CO bets $3</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: T/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($10.75, 2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks.

River: J/images/graemlins/club.gif ($10.75, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">CO bets $6</font>, Hero ?

[wake_up]

I'd definately at least try to take this down on the flop.

[AaronOC]

i don't like the check call on the flop, you have to lead out here

[tojx]

Just ran this through poker stove
Villains range: flush draw, JT/QT/KT/AT, TT, T9/T8, any 3. I didn't include BwJ/JJ or small trips because I would expect more aggressive play here.

[EDIT: sorry, forgot to enter the board into ps /images/graemlins/blush.gif]
[EDIT2: Oh dear, completely messed it up. Now.]

Including 'any 3' and K7 as a bluff hand your chance is 46%. Excluding 'any 3' you're at 11%

[matrix]

[ QUOTE ]

Calls 14% of cbets, because of that i decided that cbeting flop is bad because only better hands call us.

[/ QUOTE ]

Holy misuse of HUD stats!

if I am HU vs a villain who folds to CBets 86% of the time (well OK probably a little less cos he raises sometimes) and I have a pretty shabby hand that would hate to see another overcard drop on the turn/river - I am CBetting all day everyday and three times on wednesday.

The *only* times I check it to him is when I have a hand that's very good and I want to get some value out of it - and even then I'm probably leading more often than not hoping this is one of the few times he calls/raises me so I can get his whole stack by the river.

as played river is an easy fold - any T any J beats us the /images/graemlins/club.gif draw just came in and that looks like a value bet to me.

[Sir Winalot]

[ QUOTE ]
if I am HU vs a villain who folds to CBets 86% of the time (well OK probably a little less cos he raises sometimes) and I have a pretty shabby hand that would hate to see another overcard drop on the turn/river - I am CBetting all day everyday and three times on wednesday.

[/ QUOTE ]
Exactly.

[jgunnip]

[ QUOTE ]
Calls 14% of cbets, because of that i decided that cbeting flop is bad because only better hands call us.

[/ QUOTE ]

PUKE

matrix covered this well. If you had a set or an overpair the maybe c/c is ok, but i'm still betting out with practically everything against this dude.