Flopped a monster with monster redraw, CRed on turn

[Vammakala]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter (http://www.pokerhand.org)

BB ($29.50)
UTG ($43.50)
MP ($76.80)
CO ($63)
Hero ($64.35)
SB ($53.70)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $1.5</font>, Hero calls $1.50, SB calls $1.25, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: ($5) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets $3</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $9</font>, SB folds, CO calls $6.

Turn: ($23) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $15</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $52.5</font>, Hero ???

Villain is 32/13/9 over 100 hands, haven't seen him do this before, I would go for it on flop 100% of the time, but I wasn't all that sure in this case. I had the feeling that he's pretty strong - the preflop raise was also a bit weaklike, not sure what that means but I think his standard has been more pointing towards 4 BB. Is this instacall and ship it or instacall and outdraw or would you even consider folding. What kind of range do you think he's stacking the donk with? Villain is Mulken87 if someone has info on him.

[redCashion]

Installcall. I'm not sure whether you are ahead now, but the chance that you are combined with 14 outs means it's a must call.

[kazana]

I really doubt you're ahead here.

This looks a lot like a set to me, who tried to go for a tricky call on the flop, in which case you're drawing to 8-11 outs. If it's a straight (unlikely), you're drawing to 7-9 outs. If it's 2 pair (also fairly unlikely), you're drawing to about 14 outs.
In a very few cases this will be a bluff or a worse hand.

So, let's make an educated guesstimate that you're drawing to about 10 outs (this includes the assumption that villain may be bluffing/behind a very small percentage of times):
You'd be a 3.6:1 dog and villain is laying you 2.4:1.

You would need 14 outs on average to make this a good call. If you think villain is a bluff-happy chip-spewing idiot, then call away, if you think he's ahead more often than not, this is a clear fold for me.

[Jigsaws]

I agree with Kazana here.

[matrix]

instafold. - note Villain is using the "stackadonk" line here, don't be the donk.

Flop raise sucks I think - make it ~$12-14 when you have a combo/big draw like you do on this flop, with 2 cards to come get as much in the middle as you can.

If you make it $14 and he calls and the turn action is the same you are priced in for a call.

IF you can put villain squarely on a set here and nothing else it's a easy fold - we have 8 outs vs a set (8/images/graemlins/spade.gif's as 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif can pair the board not sure where you get the extra 3 outs from a 3 or a Q makes him a boat) if you add in the chance of a bluff/2 pair/overpair it's neutral EV. So on balance this is a fold.

When you make raises on flops with big draws consider the stack sizes carefully before you autopilot triple his raise amount. Try to think ahead of what your odds would be if this happened and you're faced with a push before it actually happens and adjust your raises accordingly.

If at all possible you want it all-in on this flop.

Board: Qd 6s 7s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 50.1599 % 47.51% 02.65% { AsQs }
Hand 2: 49.8401 % 47.19% 02.65% { KK+, 77-66, AQs, 76s, 54s }

after the turn drops you're praying he has precisely KK 2pair or is bluffing.

Board: Qd 6s 7s 3c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 27.9356 % 24.62% 03.31% { AsQs }
Hand 2: 72.0644 % 68.75% 03.31% { KK+, 77-66, AQs, 76s, 54s }

[Vammakala]

Yea I guess after his call on flop, I could've reduced his handrange and checked behind on turn maybe. I didn't quite think this through. I wasn't sure if he'd do this with hands like KQ, probably not - even when he's very very aggressive.

River was an A and he took it down with AA. Got too excited over the hand I guess. Add in a couple of other hands like this and I'm only up 1.5bi instead of the 4 I should be!

Gah.

I guess my reasoning was that I still have crazy amount of outs even if he has like KK. Silly me. (Know you all know to stack-a-donk vs me!)

Would you check this behind on flop, planning on calling a bet on a non-hitting river? This time the river would've been an ace and I can imagine that being a very expensive card for me.

[mother_brain]

i probably call.

course i probably have a read.

edit: course i probably suck.

[matrix]

[ QUOTE ]

I guess my reasoning was that I still have crazy amount of outs even if he has like KK.

[/ QUOTE ]

KK is about the best holding he has you can hope for and you're ~70/30 dog to KK.

checking the turn through would be a great play (if we have a read that villain is aggro) as if we hit we win - if we miss we fold and if he has AA 2/pair/set he's paying up for sure on the river.

[Sir Winalot]

[ QUOTE ]
What kind of range do you think he's stacking the donk with?

[/ QUOTE ]
66, 77, 67s, AA-QQ. Maybe AQ, 45s, 33, 98/images/graemlins/spade.gif/45/images/graemlins/spade.gif but IMO this looks like he decided to stack-a-donk on the flop.

[carnivalhobo]

bigger flop raise so you can call here, against some villains you can check the turn too.