Pot control or weakness?

[ama0330]

Note the PFR is to $2 preflop, converter screw up cause I'm in the blinds. My read is that the villain is "passive postflop" with stats of about 35/2. I know I've been posting some pretty basic hands lately but I'm going over every aspect of my game with a microscope.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($31.05)
MP ($51.20)
Button ($48.50)
SB ($40.27)
Hero ($125.85)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
UTG calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB (poster) completes, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1.5</font>, UTG folds, SB calls $1.50.

Flop: ($4.50) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($4.50) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $2</font>, Hero calls $2.

River: ($8.50) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $3</font>, Hero calls $3.

Final Pot: $14.50

[Nologo]

Bet flop, check turn if called.

[CrustyFace]

I would have bet the flop.

[ama0330]

Why bet this flop? Surely we will fold out worse hands and be called by better ones?

[SilentNoise]

since you checked the flop i think villian is either
1) betting as a bluff assuming you missed the flop - in which case i would raise to define your hand if he calls, take a free showdown
2) or he picked up some kind of draw, - in which case you shuold raise to protect your hand, and take a freeshowdown if he checks to you.

[CrustyFace]

I would have bet, if he smooth calls you then you can be cautious, but most of the time he wont have a piece of this and you can use your positional advantage.

[shpanko]

[ QUOTE ]
Why bet this flop? Surely we will fold out worse hands and be called by better ones?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah but who cares. Why give a free card to QJ and A9 type hands that now get free cards to beat you. Honestly your opponent isn't going to improve to anything that you will beat and will call a bet. Just bet the flop and take it down. By checking you let him see the turn for free and let him pick up draws and possibly pair his higher hole cards. Just bet and take down the pot. God why is everyone trying to apply this "only better hands call" when you need to protect your hand. He has called a raise pf, there is decent money in the pot. Just bet and take it down. If he calls you then shut down.

[Grifter]

I think you should bet this flop for two reasons:

1) Value. You are getting called here by hands you beat. I think most pocket pairs look you up here.
2) Protection. If another overcard falls on the turn, you will be in a sticky situation. If you bet here, you can opt to excercise pot control on the turn.

Lately, while you will never fold out a better hand, you could fold a hand with outs (AQ, AJ comes to mind.) At this point I think better to take a shot at taking it down right here. BUT I reiterate that I don't think betting the flop is a bluff.

P.S. I think raising this turn might be a very sexy play, but I have to think about it more.

[munkey]

[ QUOTE ]

Why bet this flop? Surely we will fold out worse hands and be called by better ones?



[/ QUOTE ]

I agree bet flop.

HU and we're PFR I cbet. K77r looks like AK hit (i.e us) and because paired only 5 cards connect with it. Also we have position and if we check and get led into we haven't learnt anything about his hand. Also we have showdown value with TT.

Grifter adds 2 more reasons for your hand. If was this the turn then I understand your reasons.

I'll bet flop fold to a decent raise, check turn (pot control because if he has a good hand will prob try to c/raise the turn).

[matrix]

flop check is fine I think.

calling down is fine. (unless he starts betting bigger)

this gets more value out of AQ AJ 99- than betting the flop does.

Villain is *passive* here - he's not calling the flop bet very often with AQ/AJ or 99. Tho his line does look an awful lot like TPNK.

on the flop AJ/AQ is 25% to outdraw us 75% of the time our hand is good at the river if thats what he holds.

Raising the river would be a sexy play if he's the kind of villain who's scared of 3flush boards (tho most down here are stupid enough to call a river raise here with Kx)

[ama0330]

Villain has KJo and MHING. I think I would have lost less betting the flop and shutting down than I did calling down.

Thanks for your responses everyone.

[Jigsaws]

One extra reason: metagame. Are you checking this flop with anything but weakish hands wanting to show down?

[matrix]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain has KJo and MHING. I think I would have lost less betting the flop and shutting down than I did calling down.

Thanks for your responses everyone.

[/ QUOTE ]

calling down cost you 10BB AND you got to SD AND you saw his cards.

Flop bet costs ~8BB here, you pays your money you takes your pick.

note on villain: bets too little with made hands (no concept of implied odds) - call with draws and beat him on the river often.

edit: this note will be worth more than 2BB in the long run /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[matrix]

[ QUOTE ]
One extra reason: metagame. Are you checking this flop with anything but weakish hands wanting to show down?

[/ QUOTE ]

metagame is fun /images/graemlins/smile.gif

now and then I call down weak leads like this hand and sd a completely blanked SC or pocket 3's that missed or some other rubbish like that - then I pull the same move (calling down "weakly") with a flopped boat only I push the river all-in and get a surprising amount of calls from TP hands.

Whether this is down to my metagame strategy or just cos they're idiots who'd call anyway is debateable - but sometimes I like to think my metagame helps /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Antinome]

I think this is a great line to take against people who call with medium PPs but will throw junk like KJ and KQ away OOP facing a raise. Good players, typically, with enough imagination to think 88 is good here. Against this guy, maybe not so good.

Now if you thought he had a medium PP, by the river you are down to like two hands you beat, 88 and 99. He isn't betting like he has fives, or sixes, so maybe that's what you put him on exactly and call, getting pretty good odds.

[kitaristi0]

chk pf i pref chk flop against more agg to induce bluffs against passive cs i pref bet for reason stated above

as played despite great odds you prob don't beat anything on the river