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View Full Version : NL 25 Huge pot, scary board


pdoran10
11-08-2006, 09:53 AM
SB is TAG and pretty solid. BB is a station and a donkey, he plays any 2 cards and even after showing him the nuts 3 times, he think i bluff....

This flop comes down and i immediately hurl, then recoup and evaluate. What you guys think here. What to do, all streets?

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
5 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $21.55
Hero: $34.45
Button: $14.85
SB: $20.45
BB: $17.10

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is CO with K/images/graemlins/club.gif K/images/graemlins/heart.gif
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $0.75</font>, Button calls, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to $2.5</font>, BB calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $8</font>, Button folds, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: A/images/graemlins/club.gif Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ($24.75, 3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks.

Turn: 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($24.75, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $3.75</font>.

Edit: --- BB calls $3.75 on the turn.

ticks
11-08-2006, 09:58 AM
What did the BB do?

pdoran10
11-08-2006, 10:02 AM
BB called kinda quick

ChipStorm
11-08-2006, 10:17 AM
You're getting almost 9:1 direct odds and closing the action, and it is possible given the flop that neither opponent has an A -- maybe not likely, but given the odds I think I call and see a river. I may be a little loose here though; curious to hear others.

If you see a bet and a call on a blank river, though, you're clearly toast.

ticks
11-08-2006, 10:29 AM
Annoying spot.
What makes it even more annoying is that you could be ahead to something like JJ.
You are getting ridiculous odds.
If you call and villain shoves river you will be getting very good odds again,
even though you will be beat almost always.
Especially if BB calls the river bet.

However, I think you should fold.
A solid TAG at 25nl has a high pocket pair or AK here almost always.
You are behind AA, AK, QQ and ahead of JJ - and splitting with KK of course.
With two aces on the flop and no shove preflop I doubt he has AA.
The same reasoning makes KK unlikely.
AK, QQ and JJ seems to be his most likely hands.
TT is a remote possibility.
I doubt he would be taking a stab with JJ or TT with two players behind him,
but it is possible.
BB could be playing lots of Ax hands given your description,
which makes this even more of a fold.

The key is not to look at SB's bet in isolation but at his stack as well.
In other words: that is not a 3.75 bet, it's a shove.

CrustyFace
11-08-2006, 10:32 AM
I think that if you hadn't been reraised by SB preflop then i would be more inclined to call, as it stands i would fold.

ticks
11-08-2006, 10:45 AM
Could someone please stove the following(on a mac right now):
Villain1: AK,QQ,JJ
Villain2: rnd
Hero: KK

TyFuji
11-08-2006, 11:15 AM
I agree, this is a fold for me. I'd be fairly inclined to bet the flop if the stack sizes weren't all wacky.... as it is, I think you're stuck laying it down here.

GrandmaStabone
11-08-2006, 11:22 AM
I c-bet this flop every time.

Anyone else?

tojx
11-08-2006, 11:22 AM
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 52.0214 % 51.60% 00.42% { QQ-JJ, AKs, AKo }
Hand 2: 06.3742 % 06.15% 00.22% { random }
Hand 3: 41.6044 % 41.29% 00.31% { KcKh }
</pre><hr />

[Edit] The above are on the flop. On the turn your chances are almost the same, except BB having only 5.955% and SB having 52.697%

[Edit2] Putting the calling station on Ax, any 2 broadway result in 32% SB, 65% BB, 3% Hero

Imrahil
11-08-2006, 11:23 AM
C-betting the flop would commit hero.