Leach down 52%-48% with 56% reporting

[Uglyowl]

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/IA/H/02/index.html

[Uglyowl]

Loebsack 74,517
Leach 68,093

69% reporting

Guys this could be huge. This is the guy who sponsored HR4411 (UIGEA).

http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bill.xpd?bill=h109-4411

[Kevmath]

Loebsack 74,517 51% 72% of precincts reporting
Leach 70,570 49%

[redbeard]

i think msnbc just called it that leach will lose. too bad we couldn't get kyl too. nonetheless, i hope the national media at some point picks up on the fact that he was the driving force in the house behind the ig bill and was voted out of office.

[kslghost]

As I understood it, this wasn't supposed to be a particularly close race, no?

[Moyer]

I'm in Iowa watching the news. The Republican analyst said "Leach will win, because he's Jim Leach." Apparently he's in a mostly Democratic district, but he's always won. I think he spoke too soon.

[Uglyowl]

Real Clear Politics didn't even have it in their top 50 House races:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/writeup/election_2006-21.html

Further Tradesports didn't have a contract on this one. CNN doesn't have it listed as a key race.

I will be interested to read the papers tomorrow.

[Uglyowl]

Still not counting our chickens on getting this guy out of office.

[Kevmath]

Leach is gaining ground:
76% in
Loebsack 82,936
Leach 79,805

Leach v Loebsack votes by county (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006//pages/results/states/IA/H/02/county.000.html)

[j2zooted]

i wish i had donated to this race, it might have been helpful /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[Kevmath]

80% in:
Loebsack 85,810
Leach 83,803

[Uglyowl]

85% in:
Loebsack 90,575
Leach 87,374

Moving back in the direction of the good guys

[Kevmath]

Post deleted by Kevmath

[Uglyowl]

94% in:
Loebsack 93,986
Leach 92,900

Don't like how close this is getting. HMMMM, This is so close that poker players may have had made a difference.

[ravenfan1733]

Loebsack
93,986 50% 94% of precincts reporting
Leach
(Incumbent)
92,900 50%

Very close.

[Kevmath]

There's 6 counties left that aren't at 100%
It's 3-3 in those counties, Loebsack has a 1,300 vote lead in a county with 75% in with 9700 votes cast so far. The other county with a lot of votes out has 38% in, Leach is leading 52-48% with 3100 votes counted so far. There's 21 of 338 precincts left to report in IA-02.

[ravenfan1733]

If you look at the size of the counties not at 100%, Leach is winning the smaller counties, Loebsack is winning the larger counties. I think Loebsack can actually win this thing!

[Moyer]

Looks like Democrats are kickin a$$ all over. Except for Tennessee /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[Kevmath]

96% in:
Loebsack 95086
Leach 94418
5 counties left not at 100%

Update 97% in:
95,567-95,059 Loebsack, 4 counties not at 100%, Loebsack leading in 3 of those counties.

[Zele]

I am assuming that a result this close will trigger a recount whatever the initial result.

[j2zooted]

97% in
Loebsack 95567
Leach 95059

[Uglyowl]

[ QUOTE ]
96% in:
Loebsack 95086
Leach 94418
5 counties left not at 100%

[/ QUOTE ]

Holy crap this is close. With the race most likely within 1,000, this one small issue (poker) may have swung this race.

[ravenfan1733]

Loebsack winning 3 of the 4 counties left - I'm going to call it, Leach GOING DOWN!! /images/graemlins/smile.gif /images/graemlins/smile.gif /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Kevmath]

Anyone who received votes can ask for a recount, so I'm sure Leach will be doing that ASAP.

Iowa Recount Rules (http://www.sos.state.ia.us/pdfs/elections/RecountPart1.pdf)

[Uglyowl]

Looks like about 4,000 ballots to be counted still

[Kevmath]

99% in:
Loebsack ahead 96,161-95,622

2 counties left, at 91 and 98% in

Now at 96,661-96,049

[Moyer]

[was going to cross fingers but decided not to jinx it]

[ravenfan1733]

And Loebsack winning those 2 counties left at 56% and 58% respectively. Put a fork in Leach, he's done. (assuming no cheating in the recount).

[whitepotatoe]

Loebsack 96,661 to 96,049

Only 2 precincts not 100%, both of which Loebsack has a double digit lead. I think we have a winner.

WOOOWOOO

[Zele]

WHO LET THE DOGS OUT????????

(Sorry.)

[Kevmath]

There were 242,843 absentee ballots requested for the entire state of Iowa. Definitely not over yet.

There's 3 precincts left that haven't reported results.

[Moyer]

It seems like, at least in Iowa, there were a lot of people voting Democrat the whole way. Some unexpected Republican losses for sure.

[Zele]

[ QUOTE ]
There were 242,843 absentee ballots requested for the entire state of Iowa. Definitely not over yet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Aw, nuts.

Those generally include a lot of military votes, which is usually bad for Dems, right? (Maybe not this year though?)

[BennyMac]

[ QUOTE ]
There were 242,843 absentee ballots requested for the entire state of Iowa. Definitely not over yet.

[/ QUOTE ]

A lot of those were already counted, but they favor the Dems strongly anyways. I just heard on the news (I live in the district) and apparently a lot of the absentee ballots in Johnson County haven't been counted and they will be strongly for Loebsack.

In midpost, Leach was just on it looked a lot like a concession speech!

[cowboy.up]

[ QUOTE ]
There were 242,843 absentee ballots requested for the entire state of Iowa. Definitely not over yet.

[/ QUOTE ]

With that many absentee ballots and the race within 1000 votes - are we looking at upwards of a week to get those counted before we have a confirmed winner?

Basically - what's the time frame on those ballots?

[rjoefish]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
There were 242,843 absentee ballots requested for the entire state of Iowa. Definitely not over yet.

[/ QUOTE ]

A lot of those were already counted, but they favor the Dems strongly anyways. I just heard on the news (I love in the district) and apparently a lot of the absentee ballots in Johnson County haven't been counted and they will be strongly for Loebsack.

In midpost, Leach was just on it looked a lot like a concession speech!

[/ QUOTE ]

I live in Johnson county. ^_^

[Moyer]

There was a miscount in Johnson County.

[Kevmath]

Johnson County - where the University of Iowa is located.

[BennyMac]

[ QUOTE ]
There was a miscount in Johnson County.

[/ QUOTE ]

It seems like they're having trouble counting the absentee ballots, but Loebsack undoubtedly wins there. A lot more Democratic ballots to count:

http://www.johnson-county.com/auditor/voter/0611stat.htm

[Moyer]

ABC has a check mark next to Loebsack

[Kevmath]

Post deleted by Kevmath

[kidpokeher]

We HAVE to mass mail Leach telling him who threw him out of office.

[Uglyowl]

Loesback 107,097
Leach 101,386

Yikes

[Kevmath]

Looks like they fixed that counting error in Johnson County. Only county left is Lee.

[BennyMac]

[ QUOTE ]
Loesback 107,097
Leach 101,386

Yikes

[/ QUOTE ]

That's the Johnson County absentee ballots coming in - It's over!

[Uglyowl]

http://www.zenwaiter.com/photos/indexnew/fat%20lady%20sings.jpg

[Bilgefisher]

now...how do we convince others he lost due poker players?

[Moneyline]

[ QUOTE ]
now...how do we convince others he lost due poker players?

[/ QUOTE ]

Change his name to Lucksack.

[EgoSlasher]

I find it soothing that we may have contributed to him losing his job as he tried to force us to lose ours.

[Kevmath]

What stops Leach from putting something into a piece of legislation in the lame duck session of Congress that really puts the death knell to Internet gaming?

[cowboy.up]

[ QUOTE ]
What stops Leach from putting something into a piece of legislation in the lame duck session of Congress that really puts the death knell to Internet gaming?

[/ QUOTE ]

Us making it a point that our voices were heard in this race. We must make it clear that we helped swing this vote and show Congress that we are a force that gets back up when they kick us down.

I know the media picked up on our donations a little bit - hopefully they will highlight it again now that it's over.

[whitepotatoe]

Leach concedes, but will he ask for a recount?

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061107/NEWS09/61108004/1001/RSS01

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
Leach concedes, but will he ask for a recount?

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061107/NEWS09/61108004/1001/RSS01

[/ QUOTE ]

No. I don't think Leach is the type of guy to ask for a recount. And without getting into any stereotypes, I don't think the IA-2 district is the sort of place where you ask for a recount.

We should all be very, very proud.

[whitepotatoe]

Sweet. How will this affect Frist and his plans?

[Kevmath]

It was 51.4-48.6%, I'm sure he'll at least ask for one, but I don't think he can make up 5,700 votes.

[Ron Burgundy]

Go Lucksack! OUT F---ING STANDING!

[spyyderz]

five bucks some pissed off computer savvy internet poker player put a virus in the electronic voting machines =P

[lol_variance]

Well this makes my day. Chalk one up for the poker players.

[AKQJ10]

I perked up when I heard Leach's name this morning on NPR's coverage. They made this sound like a big upset.

Take that for messing with my liberty, you SOB! I might call his office this week to "ask if Rep. Leach regrets threatening our personal liberty," or has a new perspective on how jealous Iowans are of their liberty. Hell, maybe I should move to Iowa if they have a ton of casinos and vote out people like Leach. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[ QUOTE ]

five bucks some pissed off computer savvy internet poker player put a virus in the electronic voting machines =P

[/ QUOTE ]

That's why we need open-source voting software (http://www.openvotingconsortium.org/), but that tech stuff is just too damn complicated and it's easier to let Diebold worry about it all, right?

[bball904]

[ QUOTE ]
now...how do we convince others he lost due poker players?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that's rather simple. Where are the majority of poker players in the district? Obviously at the University of Iowa (Johnston county). Consider the fact that Leach lost Johnston county by 8400 votes and only lost the election by 5700 and you have to assume that the U of I voters are what did him in! As a cyclone, this may be the first time in my life that I'm proud of the Hawkeyes! Nice job!

[Braves1974]

Most inspiring post I've read. Leach out, Cyclones praising Hawkeyes. What's next...?

[kfellmy]

Just too bad that Kyl won.

[Osprey]

What's really sad is that it looks like all we had to do was survive this session of congress without an internet gambling bill, and the major proponents of it wold be all gone (except for Kyl). Too bad it didn't happen.

[autobet]

Tell me what to do with my mouse,
and lose your seat in the House.

[Chip_Lead26]

I think the gambling bill had an impact. I live in Johnson County and have voted for Leach in every election with the exception last night. I was impressed with him visiting our high school 15 years ago and what he had to say.

The sole reason I voted against him last night and campaigned for his opponent (Dave Loebsack) was his lead role in the anti-gambling bill. I know hundreds of Iowans in district 2 that voted against him for the same reason. I don't think he was that bummed he lost. In his concession speech, he said it was the happiest day of his life and it looked like he meant it. He will NOT ask for a recount.

One last thing. Leach was one of the more moderate Republicans on his voting record. Everytime I have seen him and corresponded with him, he is a good man and an honest man. He has never taken PAC $, he has never negative campaigned. He knows how I feel on the gambling legislation and we agree to disagree.

Finally, the most ironic thing in this thread it is claimed Johnson County is the home of the University of Iowa and is a strong democrat majority - all of which is true. Here comes the ironic part, Jim Leach is now the frontrunner to be the next President of the University of Iowa.

[Fishy McDonk]

[ QUOTE ]
Well this makes my day. Chalk one up for the poker players.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wish we could take credit for this, but I think it was all about IRAQ. I haven't heard a single word about internet gambling on the television news since the returns started coming in yesterday afternoon and I surveyed all the cable and network channels.

[Braves1974]

That is ironic. Thx for the insight. Very interesting.

[Guthrie]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Well this makes my day. Chalk one up for the poker players.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wish we could take credit for this, but I think it was all about IRAQ. I haven't heard a single word about internet gambling on the television news since the returns started coming in yesterday afternoon and I surveyed all the cable and network channels.

[/ QUOTE ]
Of course we can take credit for it. That's what politics is all about. Everyone on this forum should write a letter to Mullah Leach, their own local representatives, whether they got reelected or not, as well as the Republican Party, take credit for this, and vow to vote against the blue-nose scumbags and donate to their opponents in every future election.

[kidpokeher]

[ QUOTE ]
Most inspiring post I've read. Leach out, Cyclones praising Hawkeyes. What's next...?

[/ QUOTE ]

Donald Rumsfeld stepping down?

[autobet]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the gambling bill had an impact. I live in Johnson County and have voted for Leach in every election with the exception last night. I was impressed with him visiting our high school 15 years ago and what he had to say.

The sole reason I voted against him last night and campaigned for his opponent (Dave Loebsack) was his lead role in the anti-gambling bill.

[/ QUOTE ]

One of the most importing things we can do right now is let everyone know that this issue may have helped swing a few close elections. Here is the rough draft of a letter I am going to send out to politicians, the democratic and republican party, and a few newspapers. Suggestions for improvement appreciated.

Tell Me What To Do With My Mouse, and Lose Your Seat in the House

We have heard a lot the last few weeks Americans were tired of the war and the endless scandals involving the GOP. Americans are also tired of having their freedoms taken away by pandering politicians playing to the religious right.

A few weeks before the election, The Unlawful Internet Gambling Act was attached to the Port Security Bill without a vote or much debate in the Senate pissing off millions of online poker players.

Many of the politicians championing this legislation talked as if they were fighting for the survival of the children and family values. Funny, because many of them take contributions from Harrah’s Entertainment and Indian Casinos (or their PAC’s). Funny, because many of them represent states where gambling is big business like Iowa and Arizona. Funny, because they exempted horse racing, lotteries and other state run gambling games from the new law. So you can still gamble online!

It is already legal to play poker in a home game for money as long as no one makes a profit off running the game in most states. Poker is also legal in many card rooms and casinos throughout our county. Poker is a game of skill. In the short run a lot of luck is involved, but in the long run the luck evens out and the best players win.

Online poker should be regulated. Regulation will reduce underage gambling, and allow the government to monitor cash transactions for illegal activities.

Many pissed off poker players have registered to vote for the first time. Many lifelong Republicans are voting Democratic or Libertarian. We are tired of our freedoms being taken away. Tell me what to do with my mouse, and lose you seat in the House!

[Sponger.]

[ QUOTE ]
Tell me what to do with my mouse,
and lose your seat in the House.

[/ QUOTE ]

perfect!

[Wools]

[ QUOTE ]
Tell Me What To Do With My Mouse, and Lose Your Seat in the House

We have heard a lot the last few weeks Americans were tired of the war and the endless scandals involving the GOP. Americans are also tired of having their freedoms taken away by pandering politicians playing to the religious right.

A few weeks before the election, The Unlawful Internet Gambling Act was attached to the Port Security Bill without a vote or much debate in the Senate pissing off millions of online poker players.

Many of the politicians championing this legislation talked as if they were fighting for the survival of the children and family values. Funny, because many of them take contributions from Harrah’s Entertainment and Indian Casinos (or their PAC’s). Funny, because many of them represent states where gambling is big business like Iowa and Arizona. Funny, because they exempted horse racing, lotteries and other state run gambling games from the new law. So you can still gamble online!

It is already legal to play poker in a home game for money as long as no one makes a profit off running the game in most states. Poker is also legal in many card rooms and casinos throughout our county. Poker is a game of skill. In the short run a lot of luck is involved, but in the long run the luck evens out and the best players win.

Online poker should be regulated. Regulation will reduce underage gambling, and allow the government to monitor cash transactions for illegal activities.

Many pissed off poker players have registered to vote for the first time. Many lifelong Republicans are voting Democratic or Libertarian. We are tired of our freedoms being taken away. Tell me what to do with my mouse, and lose your seat in the House!

[/ QUOTE ]

A lot of the letters that get posted in here are thrown together in haste, and thus poorly composed. It's obvious you invested time and effort in this letter; well done. Love the phrase "Tell me what to do with my mouse, and lose your seat in the House!"

Only suggestion I have involves changing "pissed off"(bolded) to "upset," "concerned," or something more formal.

[Reef]

[ QUOTE ]
Tell me what to do with my mouse,
and lose your seat in the House.

[/ QUOTE ]

we need to all email Leach's office with this!

[revots33]

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061108/NEWS09/61108010

[autobet]

Thanks for the suggestion. Here's my fourth draft:


Tell Me What to Do with My Mouse, and Lose Your Seat in the House

Americans sent a message to politicians across our country. They are tired of the war and the scandals. Americans are also tired of having their freedoms taken away by pandering politicians playing to the religious right.

A few weeks before the election, The Unlawful Internet Gambling Act was attached to the Port Security Bill without a vote or much debate in the Senate pissing off millions of online poker players. This new law did not directly go after poker players and make it illegal to play online, but will just try and make it almost impossible for them to get money into their off shore accounts.

Many of the politicians championing this legislation talked as if they were fighting for the survival of the children and family values. Funny, because many of them take contributions from Harrah’s Entertainment and Indian Casinos (or their PAC’s). Funny, because many of them represent states where gambling is big business like Iowa and Arizona. Funny, because they exempted horse racing, lotteries and other state run gambling games from the new law. So you can still gamble online!

It is already legal in most states to play poker in a home game for money as long as no one makes a profit off of running the game. Poker is also legal in many card rooms and casinos throughout our country. Poker is a game of skill. In the short run a lot of luck is involved, but in the long run the luck evens out and the best players win.

Online poker and the cash transactions involved should be regulated. Regulation will reduce underage gambling, ensure gamblers are getting a fair shake, and allow the government to monitor cash transactions for illegal activities. In addition, money can be set aside to offer programs to problem gamblers.

Many angry poker players have registered to vote for the first time. Many lifelong Republicans are voting Democratic or Libertarian. We are tired of our freedoms being taken away. Over ten million Americans play poker online representing every sector of society. It is possible that hundreds of thousands of votes were strongly influenced by decent Americans echoing the sentiment, “Tell me what to do with my mouse, and lose you seat in the House!”

[Wools]

autobet, in the last sentence, you are still missing an "r" on you(r).

Also, if you want to use "pissing off" that's fine with me, though I think it sounds a little more professional with a substitution. In the second paragraph, you state "...in the Senate pissing off millions..." Personally I would use a different descriptor here also, but the rest is written well enough that this is a minor issue.

[kidpokeher]

Agree with the "pissing off" comment. It'll never make it into a newspaper.

Also suggest these revisions:
"...taken away by politicians pandering to the religious right."

"... did not criminalize poker players and make it illegal to play online, but it will attempt to make it impossible for them to get money into their accounts."
(The word 'offshore' still carries an aura of illegality.)

Instead of saying "So you can still gamble online", I think this drives the point home...
"So it's still okay to gamble online, but only where the politicians and the special interests tell us to."

[autobet]

Thanks for the suggestions and the proof reading guys.

I faxed a copy to Leach at 202-226-1278
I added by hand, "Good luck in your future endeavours. I know you have served your state well. I know there are more important things than gambling, but I think the government went to far. In my opinion taxation and regulation are the way to go.

I also emailed a copy to Loebsack at loebsackforcongress.org

I added a lot of online poker players voted for you hoping they will have your support.

[revots33]

Not to nitpick but here's my suggestions FWIW:

Combine paragraphs 2&3, and eliminate all of paragraph 2 after "Senate", and eliminate survival from Par 3. I'd also use argued instead of "talked as if", just my preference tho.

A few weeks before the election, The Unlawful Internet Gambling Act was attached to the Port Security Bill without a vote or much debate in the Senate. Many of the politicians championing this legislation argued that they were fighting for our children and family values. Funny, because many of them take contributions from Harrah’s Entertainment and Indian Casinos (or their PAC’s). Funny, because many of them represent states where gambling is big business like Iowa and Arizona. Funny, because they exempted horse racing, lotteries and other state run gambling games from the new law. So you can still gamble online!

Other than that it's pretty good, nice job.

[pokerpunchout]

All I can say is Thank You Iowa Voters!!

[spidey74]

[ QUOTE ]
now...how do we convince others he lost due poker players?

[/ QUOTE ]

Considering none of the polls even had this district as a candidate for party control changing, I'd have to say poker players definitely played a part. Anyone know many other candidates ended up winning that weren't even on the radar??

Spidey

[Skipbidder]

[ QUOTE ]
now...how do we convince others he lost due poker players?

[/ QUOTE ]

When telling a lie, it is best to just repeat it over and over again without answering any questions about it. Just keep repeating it.

[Uglyowl]

[ QUOTE ]
Not to nitpick but here's my suggestions FWIW:

Combine paragraphs 2&3, and eliminate all of paragraph 2 after "Senate", and eliminate survival from Par 3. I'd also use argued instead of "talked as if", just my preference tho.

A few weeks before the election, The Unlawful Internet Gambling Act was attached to the Port Security Bill without a vote or much debate in the Senate. Many of the politicians championing this legislation argued that they were fighting for our children and family values. Funny, because many of them take contributions from Harrah’s Entertainment and Indian Casinos (or their PAC’s). Funny, because many of them represent states where gambling is big business like Iowa and Arizona. Funny, because they exempted horse racing, lotteries and other state run gambling games from the new law. So you can still gamble online!

Other than that it's pretty good, nice job.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice letter! Use as few words as possible to get your point across. Again, you did a nice job.

[Skipbidder]

[ QUOTE ]
Considering none of the polls even had this district as a candidate for party control changing,

[/ QUOTE ]

The Des Moines Register seemed to think it would be close.

[Skipbidder]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Well this makes my day. Chalk one up for the poker players.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wish we could take credit for this, but I think it was all about IRAQ. I haven't heard a single word about internet gambling on the television news since the returns started coming in yesterday afternoon and I surveyed all the cable and network channels.

[/ QUOTE ]

Gamblers can't take credit for it, you are right. However, you are dead wrong about this particular race being about Iraq. Jim Leach (who is the only Republican I ever voted for in a race for something higher up than County Clerk of Court) voted against war in Iraq.

Jim Leach probably lost votes because of Mark Foley and Denny Hastert. In a debate, when the subject of Hastert's knowledge of Foley's crimes were brought up, Leach said that he would vote to retain Hastert as speaker.

There was a close poll in October. This was about the most non-negative campaign you would ever want to see. David Loebsack (who was a poly sci professor of mine) and Jim Leach are both pretty good guys. I know that people want to hate Leach here, but it is not that easy to do if you know more about him. When the national GOP started mailing out fliers scaring up fears about Loebsack's position on gays (in favor of civil unions), Leach complained to the state GOP. They wouldn't stop the mailings, so he went to the national party, eventually threatening to switch caucuses if they didn't stop. Ken Mehlman's brand of hateful politics just aren't the way things are done in that part of the country.

[AAAA]

i really feel it is important that there be an inclusive PAC that works for civil liberties and not just gambling!

[AAAA]

yes, the goal of any letter like this is to antagonize as few as possible...if just one person got upset with that and used it as a reason not to agree, it would be a shame.

the best is to get your opponents to stoop to swearing and then you "score"

[scrub]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for the suggestions and the proof reading guys.

I faxed a copy to Leach at 202-226-1278
I added by hand, "Good luck in your future endeavors. I know you have served your state well. I know there are more important things than gambling, but I think the government went to far. In my opinion taxation and regulation are the way to go.

I also emailed a copy to Loebsack at loebsackforcongress.org

I added a lot of online poker players voted for you hoping they will have your support.

[/ QUOTE ]

You ought to be sending pitches to political reporters and bloggers--that's the way to get the kind of attention you guys want for this.

scrub

[autobet]

How do you send to bloggers?

[whangarei]

[ QUOTE ]
Leach concedes, but will he ask for a recount?



[/ QUOTE ]

I'm a day late on this, but ...

Oh, sweet Jesus! /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif