50NL - Hard river call

[skegvegaspoker]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (5 handed) internettexasholdem.com (http://www.internettexasholdem.com)

Button ($100.75)
SB ($53.58)
Hero ($50)
UTG ($139.92)
MP ($38.80)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls $0.50, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $2</font>, SB (poster) calls $1.75, Hero calls $1.50, MP calls $1.50.

Flop: ($8) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $6</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $12</font>, Button calls $12, SB folds, Hero calls $6.

Turn: ($44) J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP calls $24.80 (All-In), Button folds, Hero calls $24.80.

River: ($93.60) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: $93.60

Seems like an easy fold, but here are my stats on opponent.

VP$IP: 32
PFR: 18 (neither too relevant in my decision)
Fold to flop bet: 24%
Turn aggression freq: 79%
WTSD: 58%
W$SD: 28%

Also, my odds seemed a little tempting not to call. Am I just trying to talk myself into a call by looking at these stats?

[CrustyFace]

Firstly i don't think i would have called that raise from the BB. EDIT: I didn't realise this was so short handed, given that i would have called, but the rest of my post stands.

As played, i wouldn't have called the MP AI after the turn.

I think you became too attached to your set here. Is this one of your first hands at the table beacuse i notice your stack is a rounded $50?

[pokerchap]

wow- turn is a very easy fold IMO.

[skegvegaspoker]

Really? I'm getting almost 2-1 and villian could have several hands I can beat given his stats, in particular JT or a flush draw, plus if I am beat (unless by another set) I can still fill up. Too hopeful?

[CrustyFace]

With the aggression he has shown there are many Qx hands that can straight you. He could even have raised a middle pair hard here to try and isolate MP.

[skegvegaspoker]

A middle pair? Sorry, i'm not sure I follow.

[CrustyFace]

I wondering at the chances of him having flopped a higher set.

[skegvegaspoker]

Ok cool, middle set. Yeah, perhaps. I think I fell for his WTSD/W$SD stats a bit too much.

[CrustyFace]

If you had setted Ts i would be much more inclined to call. although there are still alot of hands that can have you straighted.

What did he have?

[deaders]

Push the flop and get called by flush draws or straight draws. Just calling there is gross. Also the call preflop is very standard, dont ever fold this.

[sigurrostyp]

push the bloody flop

[cbiz]

push flop.

[skegvegaspoker]

Yeah, cheers guys. Pushing the flop is nice. I was kind of hoping for a scare card so I could get away, but then I committed all my chips anyway. I like the wording aswell sig - really gets the point across. /images/graemlins/smile.gif