Reads - when the betting doesn't make sense [Archive]

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kurto

11-07-2006, 04:48 PM

Too me, the most fascinating part of poker is 'reads.' I still get amazed when you see pros call out someone's hand in tournys. Reads are more important as players get better/more aggressive, etc.

I thought I would post some hands where I relied entirely on reads. I think posting hands like this serve two purposes-- remind us the process of reads. And also, a lot of people ask about there bluffs. Too often, when you reverse-engineer the bluff... does your bet make sense?

I hope others can post hands where either a read on a particular player and the way they played their hand forced you to feel comfortable making slim calls or heroic folds.

These are all full ring
My Two hands:
HAND ONE - Your Betting Makes no sense... ie, weak is strong, strong is weak

HERO and Villain both have full stacks. Villain is LAG (like a 40/20 types). He's the type to raise any pp, any position, any 2 strong suited broadway, any good ace. In late position... any suited connectors, any Axs.

Postflop- I have seen him bet draws strongly in the past. If he was aggressor pf he will certainly cont aggression on flop.

Villain is UTG+1

I'm in MP with:
Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif A /images/graemlins/club.gif
1 fold, Villain calls $0.25, 1 fold, HERO raises to $1
4 folds, VILLAIN calls $0.75

Flop :
A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif

 Great flop for my hand. No obvious draws. I expect to bet and get a fold. 
Villain checks, Hero bets $2, Villain raises to $6, Hero calls $4

 There's no obvious draws so I'm a little concerned. But I realize- This guy is superaggressive and steals A LOT. Furthermore, I believe if this player had any pocket pair he would have raised it PF (he acted before me) so I don't think a set is likely. Therefore, I have to call.

Turn :
5 /images/graemlins/club.gif A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif
Villain has 15 seconds left to act (big pause), Villain bets $17.75 and is all in

 Here's where I'm put to the test. My initial instinct is, am I going to put in an entire stack in with TP 2nd kicker? It feels foolish. Then... what is this player doing? I couldn't help but think this felt wrong. This isn't a value bet. He WANTS me to fold. Though a good Maniac/LAG will do this with the nuts. They will constantly do it with MUCH LESS. You simply cannot give this type of player that much credit. They will bet with draws. More importantly, I cannot stress enough... He doesn't expect me to call. Unless he's using nth level thinking (not likely at these tables) I have to call here. 

 HAND 2 - Medium Pair... Villain blew it on the flop 
1) FullTiltPoker - $0.10/$0.25 - No Limit Hold'em -
Seat 2: HERO ($33.85)
Seat 7: Antihero ($12.20)
someyoungdude posts the big blind of $0.25
other dude posts $0.25
The button is in seat #7

Holecards:
Dealt to HERO 10 /images/graemlins/club.gif10 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
1 fold, HERO raises to $0.75, 2 folds, hosler182 calls $0.50, Antihero raises to $2

 This guy was SLAGGY… not too crazy. I hadn't see him reraise someone so I decided immediately that his most likely range was AA-JJ possibly AK/AQ. Though his stack was small so I'm a little uncertain (I'm always hesitant to give small stacks too much credit since 99% of the time the small stacks are bad players). I still favor overpairs for my read. I call primarily for set value and simply because I its virtually a minraise which I will never fold for PF 

2 folds, HERO calls $1.25, 1 folds

Flop :
2d6s8d
 Now I fully expect him to bet here with an overpair and I will fold. 

Hero Checks. Antihero Checks
 What? Who reraises PF and then checks the flop? Terrible. Now I have to revise my read... he's either horribly slowplaying something (less likely), has a low or med pocket pair and is afraid of what I hold OR he has overs that missed. 

Turn:
8 /images/graemlins/club.gif 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
Hero checks, AntiHero bets $3, (Sorry, dude. I don't believe you. I am now forced to call you down. One could argue that I should bet or push, but I still feel I'm slightly ahead or far behind the range I'm giving him. I'm happy to exercise pot control.) HERO calls $3

River:
K /images/graemlins/club.gif 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
 (AAARGH… only card I hate more then an ace there. Having said that, I still feel I have to call most of the time when he bets here considering the play on the flop)


Hero checks, (The guy pauses… then pushes) Antihero bets $7.20, and is all in

Side note - I also feel his timing was suspect throughout the hand. Nothing about this guy has ever read strength. Sometimes I use timing sometimes I don't. Depending on how consistant the player is. If he sucked out on me, good for him. I have to call here.

netstorm

11-07-2006, 05:26 PM

I actually wouldnt mind results in white in your post /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I know of a few hand histories, let me look them up and post here aswell /images/graemlins/smile.gif

kurto

11-07-2006, 05:50 PM

Hand 1

Villain shows 4s 5s (overbetting his draw... doublebelly buster)
RIVER - 3
Villain has two pair 5s and 3s
My aces and 3s are good. 

Hand 2

Villain shows AQ suited. My 10s are good.

tehDiceman

11-07-2006, 10:14 PM

lets hear some more, this is really good stuff. i hope to get a little better at reading hands, i need it since i go with my gut most of the time. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

kurto

11-08-2006, 02:55 AM

I'm a little surprised this went nowhere.

Perhaps people aren't so interested in reads at micro?

Re- going with your gut-- I think a lot of people do that. And they are going with reads, they just haven't necessarily articulated the process. Though 'mapping it out' I think helps you make snap reads the more you play.

eigenvalue

11-08-2006, 03:38 AM

A very smart post - 5 stars. Go on!

dashman

11-08-2006, 03:48 AM

GP. At the low levels I am finding out that these "odd" bets normally mean weakness as almost none of these villains are thinking to the nth level.

Dory

11-08-2006, 07:11 AM

I think that the problem with posting specific bluffs or light call downs is that because they are read specific it is hard to take anything widely applicable from them.

I think that the important part of this post is fact that you need to take the time to think about villain's betting patterns and see if they make sense from what you know about him.

This also means that you have to be sure that if you are betting as a bluff that your line for the entire hand makes some sense. ie you are actually representing something other than a bluff.

Shaddux

11-08-2006, 01:19 PM

I thought your post was interesting.

shpanko

11-08-2006, 01:37 PM

I have a similar hand to contribute. Villain in this hand is pretty aggro lik 60/50/2.5 over 50 hands.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
5 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $70.30
CO: $20
Button: $12.85
Shpanko: $50.50
BB: $49.40

Pre-flop: (5 players) Shpanko is SB with 9/images/graemlins/club.gif 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif
UTG, folds, CO (poster) checks, Button folds, Shpanko calls, BB (poster) checks.

Flop: 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ($1.5, 3 players)
Shpanko bets $1.5, BB folds, CO calls.

Turn: A/images/graemlins/club.gif ($4.5, 2 players)
Shpanko bets $4, CO calls.

River: K/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($12.5, 2 players)
Shpanko checks, CO is all-in $14, Shpanko calls.

Results:
Final pot: $40.5
CO showed 8d 3h
Shpanko showed 9c 7s

On the flop I knew I was ahead. When he just called I put him on a draw or a weak made hand. I feel like he'd raise the turn with Ax of diamonds so unless he has specificaly Kxd my hand must be good on the river. Plus his push just really feels like he wants me to fold.

ATrain

11-08-2006, 01:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
On the flop I knew I was ahead. When he just called I put him on a draw or a weak made hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Couldn't he have called with a weak make hand better than yours? Like T9 or J9? Or is the fact that he has a PFR% of 50 pretty much remove all those hands from his range?

shpanko

11-08-2006, 01:54 PM

ATrain

11-08-2006, 02:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The A is a good card for me to bluff at because my betting into it shows strenght plus I don't think he has an ace unless it includes the ace of dimaonds with another diamond.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why don't you think he has an ace after the flop action? I know I would fold ace high, but some opponents won't. IS this part of your read?

And you betting into the ace shows strength, I agree, but doesn't his call worry you? I could see him calling with A8, and while him flat calling doesn't really make that likely, its still a possibility.

I am asking because I don't know what to look for to make this kind of read, and I'd like to know how you think about this at the table.

kurto

11-08-2006, 02:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
On the flop I knew I was ahead. When he just called I put him on a draw or a weak made hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Couldn't he have called with a weak make hand better than yours? Like T9 or J9? Or is the fact that he has a PFR% of 50 pretty much remove all those hands from his range?

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that he's likely ahead if he's against a very aggressive player. Most overly aggressive players don't call down with top pair.

I actually had a losing day last night. I datamined a few tables and picked a couple with maniacs.

I took the open seat to the right of a maniac. I found Aces on the button and raised it up. Maniac calls (which I expect with any 2 cards)

Flop:
2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif j /images/graemlins/spade.gif 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif

it was checked around to me and I led out for 2/3 pot. ($2)

Right on cue, the maniac Check-raised to $6.25. I pushed. He called.

He had 10 /images/graemlins/club.gif J /images/graemlins/club.gif

There are PLENTY of players I would slowdown here. You need to tailor your play to the opponent.

The Full Aces Hand (http://www.pokerhand.org/?600059)

A maniac/LAG is not calling down with a weak overpair or top pair.

kurto

11-08-2006, 02:16 PM

I have another one. Though I have it on pokerhand.org. I don't have the handhistory available here....

The villain in the hand was another LAGGY/VILLAIN. The guy was raising easily 30% of his hands. I was thrilled to have position on him. I was calling light.

The Hand (http://www.pokerhand.org/?600168)

My commentary on this hand is not as extensive. Quite simple-- His bet on the flop is meaningless. His call of my raise does not mean much of anything except that the odds are VERY slim that he has a queen. A player this aggressive simply would not call in this situation.

People fold to these guys all the time. I find it frustrating that people don't play back when they hit. As you can see, the guy was willing to call all the way down when he COULD have been drawing dead, but if he gave me credit for a Queen... he was willing to put his stack in with 4 outs. People fold to these guys all the time when they should realize how terrible these guys are postflop. Yes, they are ballsy. But they're so ready to give their money away. Many people don't distinguish the hand qualities of people playing 60/40 versus a player playing 10/3.