Nut flush draw plus maybe an over or two?

[VorShot]

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10
6 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $1.60
UTG+1: $16.45
CO: $10.80
Button: $5.70
SB: $10.40
Hero: $11.70

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises to $0.7</font>, Button calls, SB folds, Hero calls, 2 folds.
<font color="blue"> Read on this CO is he's very tight. His raise preflop makes me think either AK, AQ, AA, KK, or QQ I decide to call and see a flop, because any raise i can assume will make his next move all in and i'm either WA or WB.</font>

Flop: 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2/images/graemlins/club.gif 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ($2.35, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $1</font>, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises to $4</font>, Button folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero</font>...
<font color="blue"> As tight as he's been playing, i don't think he makes this $4 with AK or AQ (despite this limit).

I'm guessing he's either got AA, KK, or QQ. He's also a good enough player that i might even have FE like this, because he might suspect a set.

Againts QQ, i've got 15 outs.
Againts KK, i've got 12 outs.
Againts AA, i've got 9 outs.</font>

Is this a fold or a push?

[Roadstar]

Unless you're very convinced of his preflop range, I reraise. On the flop, the $1 bet is pointless - he is not likely folding and you just told him you're on a weak draw, begging to be raised. Check/Call the flop because a PSB is just $2+, enough odds (implied) to chase.

[Befolder]

If that's the range you put him on, you might as well fold preflop because the only hand you are ahead of is AQ.

Seems ridiculous, but I'm just using your own reads. I wouldn't donk the flop unless you know him to be weak/tight. It'll cost you less to get there against his range if you just let him bet...unless your lead was meant as a blocking/probe bet. You know this guys' tendencies better than I though.

[Befolder]

[ QUOTE ]
Unless you're very convinced of his preflop range, I reraise. On the flop, the $1 bet is pointless - he is not likely folding and you just told him you're on a weak draw, begging to be raised. Check/Call the flop because a PSB is just $2+, enough odds (implied) to chase.

[/ QUOTE ]

he's already being bet the majority of his stack so his implied odds seem gone as he has very little extra above the current betting to put in.

That being said, I don't know what the right decision is.

[MrMysterious]

you must have one heck of a read to put him that tight. unless you are 100% positive he will push a pf rr, you should reraise about 4 times his raise.

on the flop, (partly bcs i would reraise pf) i would easily donk 3/4 and probobly call a push, or if i get reraised i would push.

as you played it, i would probobly donk heavier and push, even if he has AA there is enough money in the pot, plus folding equity (if/when applicable) to justify a push.

[kurto]

[ QUOTE ]
Read on this CO is he's very tight. His raise preflop makes me think either AK, AQ, AA, KK, or QQ I decide to call and see a flop, because any raise i can assume will make his next move all in and i'm either WA or WB.



[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're range for him is way too low. Unless the guy is like 6/1 over 200 hands... your range is too small. He's on the cutoff, his range isn't likely so narrow.

As the other person stated, if his raising range is really that tight, you should just fold preflop. The is the exact WRONG kind of hand you want to call his raise with as so many of your outs are counterfeited.

Note- for your range.. the best option you have (QQ) you are ahead on the flop.

KK you are even

AA you are an underdog.

I would argue that even against a tight player, he could have raised ANY pocket pair. There are 3 set possibilities (9 outs) and other overpairs (9s-Js) (15 outs)

Your odds are not that bad. If you can handle a high variance game, you can push.

[VorShot]

How i got my read was, he hasn't played a hand the entire time he was there with me (About 40 hands at the time).

I put him on a pretty tight group of cards.
He's also never raised at all preflop the entire time.

Do you think there are more cards in his range?

[kurto]

Though I will act on 40 hands, I also know that I've had long periods with no cards. Or periods where I had hands I would have raised if someone else hadn't already raised. Or there were too many limpers and I didn't want to reopen the betting, etc.

The person PROBABLY is tight. I'm only suggesting (as someone who's pretty tight for this forum) that his range could be much broader then you think. And 40 hands isn't much.

That being said, I DON'T reraise someone that tight as someone else suggested.

I would have probably c/c the flop to see if he fires a second barrel.

I haven't done the math but I don't think the dead money is substantial enough that my first though on the flop was to get it all in. Though if your read is right, you're probably barely + or barely - EV. I suspect its pretty close.

[VorShot]

So, if AA/KK/QQ is a pretty even money situation, if his range includes ANYTHING ELSE, i have good odds to push here, right?

[kurto]

As I said, I didn't punch it in to a calculator. I suspect its close either way. Off the top of my head it seems reasonable.

[VorShot]

So i pushed, he turned over AA, i sucked out anyways.
Ten of diamonds...prettiest card in the deck.

[Roadstar]

Hes already bet the majority of his stack precisely because of hero's ill timed weak $1 bet. Villain put in $0.70 preflop. A PSB on the flop is $2.35 for a total $3.05.

This leaves villain with $7.75, enough implied odds for Hero's outs (well not as much with villain having exactly AA in hindsight of course).



[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Unless you're very convinced of his preflop range, I reraise. On the flop, the $1 bet is pointless - he is not likely folding and you just told him you're on a weak draw, begging to be raised. Check/Call the flop because a PSB is just $2+, enough odds (implied) to chase.

[/ QUOTE ]

he's already being bet the majority of his stack so his implied odds seem gone as he has very little extra above the current betting to put in.

That being said, I don't know what the right decision is.

[/ QUOTE ]

[VorShot]

So should i have bet a PSB into the preflop raiser?

[VorShot]

So what SHOULD my line have been?
PSB preflop with intent to 3-bet all in?

[Check_The_Nuts]

I like check raise all in. The reason being, the ideal situation would be guy bets out his QQ, buttno just calls with something marginal (say JJ), you shove. Sweet. You also overrep your hand. If something bad goes down, like you check, PFR bets, and button shoves, then you can fold knowing a set is probably out there (or AA).

Also, a free turn would be SWEET. Who knows, maybe tighty will go for a check raise on button?

I think betting out is worse due to relative position to tighty. The chances PFR overreps his hand to squeeze out any button draws is just too great.

[orange]

I don't like bet/folding in this spot. I would probably bet/3-bet all in or c/r AI. Both have its merits I think. c/r-ing can trap some dead money in the pot. I don't think it matters much either way...I think villan has 99-QQ here often enough to make this a shove as played.