Is this a bad place to bluff? [Archive] - Two Plus Two Newer Archives

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grizadams

11-07-2006, 12:33 PM

Ok I think my first mistake was calling AQo to a raise, but I was thinking if an ace hits I'll proceed with caution...little did I know. But I'm having a hard time believing this guy can make a call with the second nut flush when I've been reprsenting the flush. I was dumb founded to see what he had. I didn't have any reads on the guy.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?598710

grizadams

11-07-2006, 01:07 PM

Same hand don't need a link to view it.
Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
5 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Pre-flop: (5 players) hero is SB with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
UTG raises to $1, CO calls, Button folds, hero calls, BB folds.

Flop: 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($3.25, 3 players)
hero bets $1.5, UTG calls, CO calls.

Turn: 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ($7.75, 3 players)
hero bets $4.25, UTG folds, CO calls.

River: K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ($16.25, 2 players)
hero is all-in $17.15, CO calls.

Results:
Final pot: $50.55

shpanko

11-07-2006, 01:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm having a hard time believing this guy can make a call with the second nut flush when I've been reprsenting the flush
http://www.pokerhand.org/?598710

[/ QUOTE ]

THis is .1/.25 NL HE. Opponents will be calling you here with Jh and Qh. Opponent has gutshot, king high flush draw and two overs he's going to be calling to the river. The K hitting is the worst card ever or you because someone on the second nut flush draw just paired up. Your line doesn't represent a flush because most people don't lead out into raise pots with a flopped flush. I don't mind betting out on the flop because you have good equity. I think I might c/c the turn trying to get a free/cheap card and possibly c/r;ing all in if I sense weakness. Nonetheless the fourth heart didn't fall so villain is going to put you on a missed flush dra a lot. If the K didn't hit you would've taken down the pot yes, but his most likely holdings are the Kh and high pocket pairs.

The Kh just hit and high pocket pairs are gonna look you up a lot with your line.

Dave I

11-07-2006, 01:21 PM

No ones gonna believe you flopped a flush and then bet it, even if that is what you normally would and should do. I may play it the same as villain except I'm raising the turn on you. If I'm villain, I probably call river too thinking you have exactly what you have or something like TT-JJ with a /images/graemlins/heart.gif

matrix

11-07-2006, 01:28 PM

*PLEASE* use a hand converter and not Pokerhand.org

It's SOOOOOO much harder to read and comment if the hand isn't posted here...

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
5 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $27.55
CO: $33.95
Button: $23.95
Hero: $23.90
BB: $12.95

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is SB with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
UTG raises to $1, CO calls, Hero calls.

Flop: 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif($3.25, 3 players)
Hero bets $1.5, UTG calls, CO calls.

Turn: 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ($7.75, 3 players)
Hero bets $4.25,UTG folds, CO calls.

River: K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ($16.25, 2 players )
Hero is all-in $17.15

...

whether this is a bad place to bluff or not depends on the villain. Vs someone who's called all the way down and who we are assuming is a bit of a calling station donk (like most of the players generally are at this limit) then bluffing like this is very bad - period.

Take a note on this guy and stack him when you have a hand.

FWIW there are idiots at $100NL that make AWFUL calls as well e.g.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
6 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $162.50
UTG+1: $100
CO: $39.45
Button: $210.80
SB: $58
Matrix: $98.50

Pre-flop: (6 players) Matrix is BB with 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
UTG calls, 4 folds, 4 folds, Matrix checks.

Flop: 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif T/images/graemlins/club.gif ($2.5, 2 players)
Matrix bets $2.5, UTG raises to $9, Matrix raises all-in $97.5, UTG calls.

Turn: A/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($197.5, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $197.5)

River: 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($197.5, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $197.5)

Results:
Final pot: $197.5
UTG showed T/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/spade.gif

 Villain here makes a *shocking* call with TPTK.

Board: 5d 2d Tc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 54.3939 % 53.94% 00.45% { AsTh }
Hand 2: 45.6061 % 45.15% 00.45% { Ad3d }

Note I am *not* bluffing here and am valuebetting as my hand is probably the favourite or a coinflip on the flop. This just illustrates how badly people call down with garbage even at higher stakes - So what do I do? I use this information soon afterwards

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
6 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $260.35
UTG+1: $101.50
CO: $39.45
Button: $209.30
SB: $57
Matrix: $100

Pre-flop: (6 players) Matrix is BB with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif T/images/graemlins/club.gif
UTG raises to $3.5, 2 folds, Button calls, SB folds, Matrix calls.

Flop: 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif T/images/graemlins/heart.gif 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($11, 3 players)
Matrix checks, UTG checks, Button checks.

Turn: 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($11, 3 players)
Matrix bets $6, UTG calls, Button folds.

River: 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($23, 2 players)
Matrix is all-in $90.5, UTG calls.

Results:
Final pot: $204
UTG mucks K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif K/images/graemlins/heart.gif

 ~ 5 hands later as it happens. He hasn't learned his lesson at all. BOOM - 1 calling station trapped, I get my chips back and for added bonus now I get to play agaist this table deep stacked. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

The moral here is that bluffing (especially big all-in river bluffs) are -EV. People generally call too much with rubbish and don't care that you are representing a flush, or Rockets or whatever you think your line *obviously* represents - in my hand 2 I thought villain had the flush - I LOLed when he mucked KK.

Having said all that some villains you can bluff profitably, these are rare creatures especially at low stakes and extra especially at *online* low stakes - if you never ever make any bluffs like the one you did at $25NL online poker - you are losing very very little EV. It's just not worth it.