QQ vs ScareCards

[MrMysterious]

villain is 33/10 over ridiculously small sample. (15 handsish)

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($173.05)
BB ($47.45)
UTG ($45.25)
MP ($32.86)
Hero ($49.25)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls $1.50.

Flop: ($4.25) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $3</font>, BB calls $3.

Turn: ($10.25) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: ($10.25) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $6</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $16.25

do you think this is a call or a fold?

[Badger83]

I think I would call, its difficult to see what you beat, but checking the turn may make a hand like KJ, JT, QJ, TT etc think they are best and so bet the blank river, but it's difficult without any reads.

It's not a huge bet so i probably look him up.

[MrMysterious]

mmmm, hes betting 2/3 the pot.

how often do you think this is KJ vs a flush ? these are really the only possible hands he could have as i see it.

[InfectorGadget]

I would bet this turn, 7-8$.

You cant immediately give him credit for an ace or the flush, so Id rather find out on the turn. He might now be betting on the river with a J/9 maybe even a 3 since he saw your weak turn play. I guess its fine how you played it, but you have to call the river as you induce bluffs by checking behind on the turn.

Bet the turn, fold to resistance. If he calls on the turn I shut down.

[ChipStorm]

[ QUOTE ]
I would bet this turn, 7-8$.

You cant immediately give him credit for an ace or the flush, so Id rather find out on the turn. He might now be betting on the river with a J/9 maybe even a 3 since he saw your weak turn play. I guess its fine how you played it, but you have to call the river as you induce bluffs by checking behind on the turn.

Bet the turn, fold to resistance. If he calls on the turn I shut down.

[/ QUOTE ]
Ding. I'd rather bet the turn and maybe fold a worse hand than be in a quandary on the river.

[MrMysterious]

hes not playing a 3 or j9 imo, and im checking this turn specificly to induce a bluff and keep the pot small and managable.

id also rather just call the river then bet the turn, betting the turn doesn't make me any money when im ahead of KJ, and it costs me extra money when im behind to a Flush (notice too that if i were to have called the 6$ on the river and lost to a flush, i still would have lost less than if i had bet 7-8$ on the turn into a flush).

Usually i call a 1/2 river bet, So the question is, do you call this 2/3 river?

[tojx]

I did a pokerstove run with top 10% for villain. You're roughly at a 40% chance to win.

[ChipStorm]

[ QUOTE ]
betting the turn doesn't make me any money when im ahead of KJ

[/ QUOTE ]
If villain will bluff river for full pot w/ KJ, and you will not call that bluff, then betting the turn makes you plenty of money when you're ahead of KJ.

If you're always going to check turn here, but not call a larger-size river bet, your play becomes exploitable.

[InfectorGadget]

I dont know why you are so certain of his range, but I wouldnt give so much credit for a flush draw here. Im aware that the possibility is there, but he could be on a straight draw, a J (yes, I believe J9 is in his range) and if you are to check behind here you are giving free cards to those hands (aswell as KJ), a backdoor flushdraw, etc.

If you said you checked here to induce a bluff, you must call this bet then, as long as its not something weird like a push or something, I guess those bluffs work to well on me /images/graemlins/smile.gif

And this bet is right between 1/2 pot and 2/3 pot, and since you induced a bluff, I think you should follow up.

Did you have any hands on him that he showed down? Agression factor? Maybe that would help.

I ran this through PokerStove to, and I feel that its kinda close what I would do. I dont hate the turn check, but Id have to call the river then.

[MrMysterious]

[ QUOTE ]

If you're always going to check turn here, but not call a larger-size river bet, your play becomes exploitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

we have played about 15 hands, it is too early to say that he had a read on me and was exploiting. the more i think about it, the more i think a call would have been correct, still i feel that its pretty close.