kk top set vs donk on flush card (50 6m)

[HitNRunPoster]

Villain is slightly loose and passive.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($43.60)
BB ($55.37)
UTG ($34.25)
MP ($49.60)
Hero ($144.05)
Button ($46.90)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.25. UTG posts a blind of $0.50.
MP calls $0.50, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2.5</font>, Button calls $2.50, SB (poster) calls $2.25, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls $2.

Flop: ($10.50) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $0.5</font>, MP folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $9</font>, Button folds, SB calls $8.50.

Turn: ($28.50) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $10</font>, Hero raises to $132.55 (All-In)

[poshphil]

Preflop and flop are pretty standard.

I think turn is pretty horrible. Villain has donk-bet flop which is often a draw then just called your raise. The draw comes in and they bet fairly strongly (compared to their flop bet). If villain is actually passive then that seems to me that he's made his draw. I don't know how often villain is going to call your all-in raise with something that you beat, but I suspect it's not often.

[Rafter77]

Agree with Pos.
Problem is your only getting this called by hands that beat you. Even badly played smaller set would fold there...
Think you should call. Hopefully pair the board, but reassess situation either way

[HitNRunPoster]

Ok, so call and fold the river UI to a 40% river push?

[SnappyJoe]

I'm really new but you're getting the odds to just call the turn bet and hope to hit one of your 10 outs and if it comes up a blank you should check behind or fold to a bet.

Anyone else?

[ChipStorm]

Good God, man, you have 10 outs to fill up and villain is laying you nearly 4:1 direct with his bet. CALL. Then fill up on the river and bust him. Pushing turns your hand to trash; you only get called by a flush.

If you miss, a non-/images/graemlins/diamond.gif river is a little tougher, as he may be playing a set here -- more likely he called your pfr with a pair than a draw, although his puny flop bet does scream drawing hand. I'd probably call 1/2-pot, not more.

[HitNRunPoster]

[ QUOTE ]
Good God, man, you have 10 outs to fill up and villain is laying you nearly 4:1 direct with his bet. CALL. Then fill up on the river and bust him. Pushing turns your hand to trash; you only get called by a flush.

If you miss, a non-/images/graemlins/diamond.gif river is a little tougher, as he may be playing a set here -- more likely he called your pfr with a pair than a draw, although his puny flop bet does scream drawing hand. I'd probably call 1/2-pot, not more.

[/ QUOTE ]

1) we're calling all non-diamond rivers due to stack sizes (he has 40% left)

2) there are lots of worse hands that he can call with (though I don't know what his chances are of having them in his range, etc. etc.)

3) there exists certain hands which are
a) worse than ours
b) can improve to beat us
c) will give no further action ui on the river
d) may be willing to call a push to try to beat us

In the case of #3, pushing is better than calling. On this board though it'd be really weird to see a hand like 7d6s or somethign like that.

So... I still don't know what to do. I think the best play, based on what you guys say, is to call and then fold the river to another bet, but I'm not sure. I think shill made a post way back in the day where he said that if you are going to make a -EV call on the river it's best to just fold the turn even if you have outs to improve, also. He posted it in the micros but it seems applicable here.

[ChipStorm]

[ QUOTE ]
1) we're calling all non-diamond rivers due to stack sizes (he has 40% left)

[/ QUOTE ]
Sorry, you're right about stacks, so if he's betting he's going to be pushing. Which is a very tough call, since he has now bet into 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gifs on the board twice, which certainly yells flush. So this would be a tight spot associated with calling the turn, perhaps a negative.

But I still think there are lots of river cards that make your decision easier, and few to none that will make it harder, so turn is still an easy flat call.

[ATrain]

Question: Does this hand play any differently, i.e., you play more aggressively on turn, if instead of the K/images/graemlins/heart.gif you had the K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif? How would you play the turn then?

[ChipStorm]

[ QUOTE ]
Question: Does this hand play any differently, i.e., you play more aggressively on turn, if instead of the K/images/graemlins/heart.gif you had the K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif? How would you play the turn then?

[/ QUOTE ]
With K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif I push the turn. In that case I've got loads of outs vs. all but the nut flush, AND seeing a river /images/graemlins/diamond.gif and then a push from villain would make my decision harder, so I get it in earlier.

[HitNRunPoster]

well if he bets 40% on the river then to call we have to win 40/180 of the time = ~24%

If he has either sets or flushes then:

sets = 6 combos
flushes = 87, jt, qj, qt, 54, 43 ... basically not a lot.

So it's a call.

But if the guy plays a set this way 10% of the time (three-betting the flop or donking more the other 90% of the time), then you have to fold to the river push.

So I think calling and then folding the river is best. Anyone disagree?