Christ! Am I dumb! (Suited Aces)

[phydaux]

I've been playing suited aces quite aggressively lately, always raising them pre-flop. "After all," I figured, "I've got to get that pot big for when I flop four to a flush."

But then I decided to actually do the math, and see what the odds are to hit at least two of my suite on the flop. Now, I'm not the best at poker math, but I figured I could handle it. Here's my try:

If I've got the A /images/graemlins/heart.gif& 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif, then there's 11 hearts unaccounted for. For the first flop card, there are 50 cards in the deck, so the odds of getting a /images/graemlins/heart.gif are 11/50. Provided the first card is a /images/graemlins/heart.gif, then there are 10 hearts and 49 remaining cards, 10/49. So the odds of being delt two of my suite are (11/50)*(10/49).

(.22)*(.20) = .04

Four percent? The odds of hitting my flush draw are only four percent? That's much less than the odds of hitting two pair or a flush/OESD draw with suited connectors. Seems to me I have been WAY overplaying suited aces.

So if I were to make something like a 5/10 rule for suited aces:

If I limp OOP with a suited ace and get raised, I have the odds to call provided:

1) The raiser has at least as big a stack as me (so I can double through if I hit my draw)
and
2) The raise is less than 5% of my own stack.

If the raise is larger, or if my opponent can't offer me decent implied odds, then I have a clear fold.

Comments?

[lacrymosa]

patiently awaiting Pokey's reply

[iraise50]

Well, I suppose you might want to consider other ways your Ax suited can hit, 2 pair, boat, and if the x is 5 or less a wheel...

I'm not really encouraging to paly them hard and heavy, only stating that if oyu want to make a concrete this hand is playable or not decision, that you should consider all of its possibilities.

I personally will limp, or call up to 3 bb in late position, especially if a couple of callers. I don't like to go beyond the flop unless I'm A.) pleased with it, very pleased or B.) it's a table that is very passive and I'm betting any flop if no one else has and dragging pots that way. Usually I can scoop 5-6 pots, then when people get sick of it tighten up, which is the PERFECT time to flop a "Gus Hansen" and have people cry. Just don't fall in love with your hand.


" With 2 suited cards, the probability of:

• Flopping a flush - 118/1
• Flopping a flush draw - 8.1/1
• Flopping a backdoor flush draw (3 flush cards) - 1.4/1
• Making a flush by the river - 15/1"

http://www.filmzone.com/articles/poker_odds_charts.htm

I just googled the odds, and can not verify their accuracy.

I have to say though, that your above math seems to include that if you miss with card two, the third card can also be a heart.

Here are other odds with two non-paired cards (as yours obviously are):

With 2 non-pair cards, the probability of flopping:

• At least a pair (using your pocket cards) from two non-pair cards - 2.1/1
• A pair (using one of your pocket cards) from two non-pair cards - 2.5/1
• Two pair (using both of your pocket cards) from two non-pair cards - 49/1
• Any two pair from two non-pair cards - 24/1
• Trips (using one of your pocket cards) from two non-pair cards - 73/1
• A full house (using both of your pocket cards) from two non-pair cards - 1087/1
• Quads (using one of your pocket cards) from two non-pair cards - 9799/1

Same URL, just below it on the page.

I hope that this is helpful, but I do think you should
1. consider all three cards on the flop
2. consider other ways to improve before yaying or naying.

[JoshNjuice]

I'm about to go to sleep and don't feel like doing intense math, but I'm pretty sure the chances of flopping a flush draw (when you're hole cards are suited) are something like 11%.

It looks like your calculation is only figuring how often the first two cards off the deck for the flop will be the same suit as your hole cards.

JoshNjuice

[OneFive]

Your Math is off. The 4% you calculated is the chance of two cards in a row both being a heart. So, the odds of flopping a flush is (11/50)*(10/49)*(9/48) = 0.84% You should be looking for what the odds are for 2 out of any 3 remaining cards are hearts. That being said, the odds of flopping 4 to a flush are actually much better than 4%... more like ~11%. I'm in class right now and don't feel like doing the statistics, but I would guess 11% is real close! There are better people than me to discuss when/how to suited aces (or look at any no limit hold 'em book). But, I will only play low suited aces in posistion and for a raise (if I'm first in). If there are mulitple limpers and I'm Co or Button I may limp to see a cheap flop and play passively in a multiway pot (odds are good to make the nut flush)!

[MadMat]

[ QUOTE ]

If I've got the A /images/graemlins/heart.gif& 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif, then there's 11 hearts unaccounted for. For the first flop card, there are 50 cards in the deck, so the odds of getting a /images/graemlins/heart.gif are 11/50. Provided the first card is a /images/graemlins/heart.gif, then there are 10 hearts and 49 remaining cards, 10/49. So the odds of being delt two of my suite are (11/50)*(10/49).


Comments?

[/ QUOTE ]

Aren't there 3 cards in a flop?

A quick google suggests that the number you are looking for is 11% (my math isn't up to confirming this! )

Mat

[CityLife]

Thinking of a flush draw as 2 of the first 3 cards in the deck being the same suit, the exact percentage is calculated by adding up the three situations that a flush draw can happen:

Probability (1st card os, 2nd and 3rd suited) = (39/50)*(11/49)*(10/48) = 0.03648
Probability (2nd card os, 1st and 3rd suited) = (11/50)*(39/49)*(10/48) = 0.03648
Probability (3rd card os, 1st and 2nd suited) = (11/50)*(10/49)*(39/48) = 0.03648

Add these three probabilities together, you get 0.1094 or 10.94%, which seems to be the consensus figure.

[phydaux]

11%? That's roughly equivilent odds of a small pocket pair hitting a set. That ain't bad at all.

[JoshNjuice]

[ QUOTE ]
11%? That's roughly equivilent odds of a small pocket pair hitting a set. That ain't bad at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

True, but a set is a made hand, and a flush draw ain't (obv). That's why I think it's important to play suited Aces in position and play them cheaply. Even if you flop your draw, you're still 4:1 to hit it on the turn and 2:1 to make it by the river, so it ultimately costs quite a bit more to make your hand than when you're "drawing" at a set with a pocket pair.


Also, I think it's important to be able to dump your hand if you just flop an Ace and no draw. I don't play suited Aces for pair-value, I play them for flush value and to add a good semi-bluffing hand to my arsenal (an ace-high flush draw is a good hand to raise with to change things up if I'm raising with a lot of made hands). Of course, you also have to be willing to dump a pocket pair if you miss, but it's a lot easier to dump 55 on a AKJ flop than it is to dump A5s on a AT8r flop.

I just realized that everyone who replied to this thread already knew all that, but I'm posting anyway!

JoshNjuice

[blackize]

[ QUOTE ]
11%? That's roughly equivilent odds of a small pocket pair hitting a set. That ain't bad at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

11% is not bad. But like the last poster says it is not a made hand. You will only make a flush by the river when you flop a flush draw 35% of the time. So when you play a suited ace you will end up with a flush ~4% of the time. Many of these times you won't be able to extract much from your opponent, some of the time you will be against a boat, and a lot of the time you will spend too much getting your flush and not extract enough value from it. My guess is you should play suited aces a little bit more cautiously than you currently do.