So lost. Fold a set here?

[Jihad]

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
5 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is BB with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif
UTG folds, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $2.25</font>, CO calls, SB folds.

Flop: 9/images/graemlins/club.gif Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif T/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($5, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $5</font>, CO calls.

Turn: K/images/graemlins/club.gif ($15, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">CO is all-in $73.45</font>


WTF full tilt really has a hard-on for me sometimes. I see this situation way to often. I kept thinking "man he shouldn't be playing a J like that," but now I think that's an easy play with that. Should I have bet that turn? If so, folding to a raise?

[derosnec]

i once got tired of being pushed around and convinced myself that no one plays a straight so strong. here was the result


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO ($32.80)
Hero ($63.30)
SB ($26)
BB ($46.90)
UTG ($50.35)
MP ($29.25)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls $0.75.

Flop: ($2.10) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $2</font>, BB calls $2.

Turn: ($6.10) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: ($6.10) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $43.9 (All-In)</font>, Hero calls $43.90.

Final Pot: $93.90

Results in white below:
BB has Tc 9c (straight, ten high).
Hero has Qh Qs (three of a kind, queens).
Outcome: BB wins $93.90.

[Jihad]

Provide consructive criticism or comments plz.

[4_2_it]

Fold. If he makes AI bluffs on boards like this his stack will be sitting in front of you soon enough.

[lacrymosa]

I fold this and wait for a better time to make a move on him if he's bluffing

[derosnec]

there is a thread by fimbulwinter (sic?) on how to calculate when to call all ins. might be in faq

edit - here is the thread Calculating EV Part 1 Calling an All in Bet (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&amp;Board=ssplnlpoker&amp;Number=299744 2)

[Jihad]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold. If he makes AI bluffs on boards like this his stack will be sitting in front of you soon enough.

[/ QUOTE ]You win the prize. After this hand he pushed all in for $100 with K9s. I was in the SB with the paltry AA offsuit and called. I got lucky and that was that.

[Thrahl]

Am I the only who likes a turn lead here? As played, fold without a read.

[4_2_it]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Fold. If he makes AI bluffs on boards like this his stack will be sitting in front of you soon enough.

[/ QUOTE ]You win the prize. After this hand he pushed all in for $100 with K9s. I was in the SB with the paltry AA offsuit and called. I got lucky and that was that.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hopefully he stuck around and reloaded 3 more times /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Vammakala]

derosnec, quite typical display of how the sklansky's NLHETAP overbet stuff works on low limits.

And yea, I think it's quite easy fold, like someone said, if he bluffs on this kind of board without the straight, he's bound to go broke soon anyway. If he's not bluffing, you're drawing to a 5-to-1 shot with horrible odds.

[Jihad]

Obv I folded but I was a bit frustrated. In retrospect I think c/f to that kind of bet is the way to go. I wouldn't like a turn lead at all. I wish someone would have presented an actual argument for it though.

[tiredjerk]

I would prefer a bet-fold over a check fold. You were showing strength throughout the hand. Quitting on the turn gives villian the opportunity to make the bluff. Because you checked to him, his possible range is pretty wide for the push. It could be the J, top pair, any 2p, nothing at all, etc etc. If you put another bet on the turn, and he reraised, then his range would be more easily determinable and the fold would be easier to make with less confusion. Also, if he's going to be bluffing over the top of your turn raise without the J, then you stacking him was no fluke.

[crookdimwit]

I think this is an easy fold. Is there a chance that he's being aggressive with two pair or an underset here? Sure. He might even be pushing with somebig combo draw, like AKh.

But most likely, he's got the J and hit his straight. He may be worred that you're holding an ace and could out-draw his made straight if a J hits the board.

Not the time to gamble, I think...

[munkey]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold. If he makes AI bluffs on boards like this his stack will be sitting in front of you soon enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is the best advice, once you've seen them do this more than once and their showdown hand then you can consider calling AI overbets. As you said you stacked him with AA when he did it again.

Most players are holding good hands(in their view) when they bet BIG, consider everyone a pussy until proven otherwise.