10NL FR:Set facing All in on river. Easy call or easy fold?

[wcaines]

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10
9 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $1.75
UTG+1: $11.10
MP1: $19.65
hero: $15.40
MP3: $7.20
CO: $5.20
Button: $5.55
SB: $10.80
BB: $15.15

Pre-flop: (9 players) hero is MP2 with 8/images/graemlins/club.gif 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">MP1 raises to $0.3</font>, hero calls, MP3 calls, 4 folds.

Flop: Q/images/graemlins/club.gif 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif J/images/graemlins/club.gif ($1.05, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">MP1 bets $0.3</font>, <font color="#cc0000">hero raises to $1.5</font>, MP3 folds, MP1 calls.

Turn: 3/images/graemlins/club.gif ($4.05, 2 players)
MP1 checks, <font color="#cc0000">hero bets $3</font>, MP1 calls.

River: 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($10.05, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">MP1 is all-in $14.85</font>, <font color="#cc0000">hero ?

No signicant read on the villian,
Is this an easy call or an easy fold?
Rest of the hand ok?

[Pokey]

Call.

Villain's play is consistent with a busted draw (like AK or KT) or a hand that the 5 improved (like 55 or A5). You aren't afraid of either. If villain actually had a flush on the turn he would very likely have check-raised you on the turn; there's no reason for him to wait for the river and THEN lead all-in. His play is highly inconsistent with any hand that beats you; call and bust him.

I would have liked the fold if the river card had been a club or a T.

Other than folding the best hand and walking away from a 200 BB pot that was very likely yours, I liked the way you played it. However, that was a big mistake.

[wcaines]

I called, he had the flush. But i feel better now, thanks.

[Pokey]

[ QUOTE ]
I called, he had the flush. But i feel better now, thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope you made a (valuable) note about your opponent: "slowplayer; trust river pushes." Everybody's river actions mean different things, and you now know what this guy's mean. Use it against him in the future. Also, beware of check-calls by this guy, especially on scare cards.

Sure, you lost some money, but you gained information, and that can wind up paying you back handsomely in the future.

[Bowlboy]

Without a read I fold this. If I knew that villain was more taggish I'd probably call this but so many players will call that flop raise on a flush draw.

[kurto]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I called, he had the flush. But i feel better now, thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope you made a (valuable) note about your opponent: "slowplayer; trust river pushes." Everybody's river actions mean different things, and you now know what this guy's mean. Use it against him in the future. Also, beware of check-calls by this guy, especially on scare cards.

Sure, you lost some money, but you gained information, and that can wind up paying you back handsomely in the future.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just want to play devil's advocate.

I think the play is more consistant with a micro-players slowplay. I know it is common as players get trickier that this kind of play (at the high stakes forum) is often Complete air or the nuts.

In my observations with these types of hands, I'm inclined to believe these hands are more often the nuts then a bluff.

In this particular hand, he's calling a large overbet to learn which it is. I really don't think this is a bluff often enough to call here.

[ChipStorm]

Raise to more like $2 on the flop, that board is slick wet.

I think a call here is more difficult than Pokey suggests. Villain's small flop bet certainly reeks of draw. The only thing that doesn't quite look like the made flush is his turn check/call. But lots of less-skilled villains do this to slowplay, not recognizing that a river /images/graemlins/club.gif kills their action or may beat them. Then they do exactly what villain did on the river.

If villain were bluffing the river, he didn't have to overbet the pot to do it; a bet half that size would have been effective as a bluff.

I don't know if I could fold a set here, because as Pokey also points out, you are ahead of a lot of hands in villain's range. But the problem is, he's not pushing a mediocre hand: he's pushing a flush, or a busted hand. I think I flip a coin here.

[ymu]

It's a bit villain dependent. If he's bluffy/aggro/bad it's an easy call, but otherwise at NL10 the check/call on the club turn was a bit of a giveaway - if they lead weak on the flop, call a raise, check/call when the flush makes it and push/bet big OOP on the river, it usually is the flush. He's trying to slow play but doesn't trust you to bet so he can c/r the river.

I fold 50% and call 50% here - depending on villain, how badly they overvalue weaker hands on a flush board and how much they like to bluff with big bets. You have to call $10.65 to win $20.70, so you need to be good about 34% to break even. Against an aggro player you are ahead often enough - if he's more passive, then probably not.

If he checks the river, it's a definite check behind after the turn action.

[checkmate36]

Im probably wrong but in these games, when I see someone suddenly push everything into the middle, they have what they believe to be the nuts or close to it.

This as everything else with poker is never true 100% of the time. If the player is loose and raising every time then Im definately wrong using this statement in that situation.

More often I see a very tight player raise pre-flop and then push on an A72/K82 type board before anyone else even has a chance to act. Its so obvious that they hold a set of A's or K's that everyone else folds and then they show the table.

I keep quiet and don't chat a word in the chat box that would put an end to such behavior.

Like I said, Im probably wrong but I give credit to someone's push at this limit when I don't have a read on them. I regularly make the same call that hero did and make a note on them for next time.

A read like this one is very important to establish as soon as you sit down at a table. I always watch who is involved in a hand and what action took place. This is the type of stuff Im looking for so Im better prepared when Im in the heat of battle.