50NL 6m: aces on JT9 two-flush board

[Jigsaws]

Same villain as this hand (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=7944179&an=0&page=0&gone w=1#UNREAD). When this hand occurs, he's 46/23/3.5 over 79 hands. So definitely the aggro-tard type.

Results from the last hand in white: <font color="white">he has KJo, and I win.</font>

Raising flop is standard, I think, but does everyone shove over the 3bet to $35?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) internettexasholdem.com (http://www.internettexasholdem.com)

Hero ($91.65)
MP ($85.05)
Button ($27.05)
SB ($73.15)
BB ($17)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, MP calls $2, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls $1.75, BB calls $1.50.

Flop: ($8) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $4.5</font>, BB calls $4.50, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $20</font>, MP folds, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $35.5</font>, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $89.65</font>, SB calls $35.65 (All-In).

[DanJ.]

I would pitch it to his 3bet, Your way behind his range i think, in the hand where he had KJ he didnt exactly play his hand as aggressivly as this hand. + you are 150bb's deep and obv he wants to play for his stack

[NSchandler]

I think I prefer to call the 3-bet and then shove on a blank turn to pushing the flop. If you just call his 3-bet, the pot will be a little over $80 on the turn and you'll have $35 or so left. That means if a blank falls and you shove, he's getting ~3.3:1 which he'll call with if he has something like FD + gutshot or OESD + pair. So if he's on a draw, just calling now and shoving on the turn doesn't cost you much, if anything, since you can get it in on the turn anyway. But it does allow you to fold if a scare card hits.

But is a flop call better than a fold? Say you fold the turn those times that a scare card hits. I don't know what exactly you could fold to - K, Q, J, 8, or heart? If you folded if any of those cards hit the turn, you'd be folding about 45% of the time on the turn. Say when you push on average you're a coinflip to villain. That gives you about $40 in EV those times you shove. $40 * 55% of the time you're shoving = $22 &gt; $15 (amount you must call on flop). So I guess calling flop is better than folding if my analysis for the turn is at all reasonable.

So maybe call flop, push a blank turn (or more likely call his turn AI). I'm not sure if my percentages here are at all reasonable. I feel like I'm being a bit too optimistic.