50NL 6Max - Backed into the nuts

[redCashion]

I struggled a little bit with the amount to bet here. The nice thing about the flush is that it's backdoored, but if he has a straight I don't think I can get a push called. Should I still push? Villain was fairly donkish with 65/15/3 type stats, and we'd had a few confrontations.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (4 handed) internettexasholdem.com (http://www.internettexasholdem.com)

Button ($18.50)
SB ($90.45)
Hero ($45.70)
UTG ($106.60)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls $0.50, Button calls $0.50, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($2) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, Button checks.

Turn: ($2) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $1.5</font>, UTG calls $1.50, Button folds, SB folds.

River: ($5) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $3.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $7</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to?

[lacrymosa]

why did you lead the turn?

As played, make it $20 on the river. Also, reload PF.

[Yaboosh]

I make it another 20 and curse when he calls with Q6 of diamonds or cheer when he calls with 9To.

[lacrymosa]

what is wrong with Q6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif /images/graemlins/confused.gif?

[SUfan5]

[ QUOTE ]
what is wrong with Q6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif /images/graemlins/confused.gif?

[/ QUOTE ]

We could get all his monies if he had Q6 of diamonds.

[DeuceSeven]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, reload PF.

[/ QUOTE ]

[carnivalhobo]

shove, he will think you are trying to push him off a Q and call with one and of course a lower flush calls.

[lacrymosa]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
what is wrong with Q6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif /images/graemlins/confused.gif?

[/ QUOTE ]

We could get all his monies if he had Q6 of diamonds.

[/ QUOTE ]

true I guess, but I think he'd come over the top with Q high flush

[PietM]

I would check this turn also.

As played, after the minraise of villain: would a push ($33 more for villain to call) be called at least 0.4 times less often than a raise to $20 ($13 more for villain)?

(Trying to invoke some thoughts from NLTAP). If villain would fold to a push 70%, and fold to a $20 raise 25%, a push gives +EV.

0.3 * 33 = $9.90 [push]
0.75 * 13 = $9.75 [raise to $20]

So, given these percentages, a push is +EV IMO. Question is, are these percentages about correct?

[Mjafish]

imo, if villain has a Q or a flush, he folds just about never. I'd say he has one of those two 80% of the time here. he might also call with 2 pair or a set here if hes stupid. all in.

[ymu]

I like AI here. It's not much more than pot and looks more like a bluff. I think he's got a high flush or KdQd for the turned nut straight with 2nd nut flush draw - I don't think a straight without the flush draw just calls the turn - it's not like we bet the flop, so a flush draw is definitely in our range here but he's probably putting us on the straight.

A smaller bet gets called, but I don't think he pushes over a raise without the nut flush.

[orange]

Shoving works nice.

[redCashion]

Why check the turn? Everyone has shown weakness, I've picked up some strong outs and want to start building a pot. The last thing I want is for it to check all around once again.

[ymu]

I think betting the turn is fine. If you get called you have outs, and a better disguised hand when you hit.

[Big Poppa Smurf]

1) betting the turn into 3 people is beyond gross. you don't think bare queens or sevens are checking this flop?
getting a free card here would be awesome because it's a free shot to stack a queen or seven.

2) this is either another weird backdoored flush or a straight (maybe two pair or a set) so just shove, he's never ever folding here because most players at these limits can't bet/fold