Poll: whats a more profitable play

[netstorm]

Inspired by another thread (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=7895700&an=0&page=1#Post 7895700) I would like to start a discussion on what would be making more money in the long run. Is it either small valuebetting vs. weak hands, or betting big and try to stack the 2nd nuts? Obviously the first is much more common, but would stacking those 2 or 3 villains once every X numbers of hands make up for losing value with small value bets (where you would be betting more)

I am always trying to improve my game, and now am looking at my bet sizes, mostly on the turn and river.

EDIT: I cant change the poll anymore, but option 2 should be to bet aggressive and hoping to stack someone with 2nd/3rd nuts.

[thac]

You wanna make villains make mistakes.. I think aggressive bets make more money because you make more when you're called and in micro stakes, you're gonna get called when they don't have odds. Err on the side of aggression.

[wake_up]

Why can't you do both - they are unrelated, right?

[netstorm]

I am always playing aggressively. Well, most of the times. But for instance: you flop the nut flush, and villain bets in to you. You call. On the turn, he bets in to you again. Again, you call (where you should probably raise, but lets not get into that here /images/graemlins/tongue.gif). No the river is a blank, whats you bet size? Small, hoping he either repops or calls with rags. Or a PSB / allin bet, hoping he calls with TP+ or a small flush?

[4_2_it]

Aggressively value betting gets my write-in vote.

[jonyy6788]

It depends on villain and table really. No Limit Hold 'Em: Theory and Practice leads me to vote for the 2nd option, I'm not gonna get into the math (don't have time right now, maybe this afternoon), but if you better more and get called a decent % it's gonna be way more profitable than if you bet small and they call almost every time. I'll be back later today to help show this.

[netstorm]

Thanks, would love to see the math behind this.

[jonyy6788]

Ok, here goes....EV=(% called)*(size of bet)

This only applies when you have the nuts OR you know you're ahead.

Hypothetical Situation:

$100 Pot on the river. You can bet $25, $50, $75, $150, or say you overbet it all-in ($250 left) if you think he has something like a flush and you have a boat.

So we'll say you bet....
$25 gets called 100% of the time....EV=$25
$50 gets called 80% of the time....EV of $40
$75 gets called 70% of the time....EV of $52.5
$150 gets called 40% of the time....EV=$60
$250 gets called 20% of the time....EV=$50

In this situation, how much should I bet??? $150, because it has our maximum EXPECTED EV. You don't have to run this through your head every time you make a river bet, but if you're dealing with a total calling station then you should bet bigger for obvious reasons, even if you make him fold once in a while!

Most poker players are so results oriented that they fail to maximize their EV long-term, but instead want to get their small bets called a huge portion of the time. If you think somebody is gonna call your big bets a decent amount of the time then bet big even if you make them fold a substantial amount of the time (somebody is gonna eventually look you up or have a hand they can't fold).

[jonyy6788]

Bump b/c I feel this is very important concept that is overlooked a lot at microNL.

[abarrenfuture]

This is extremely dependent upon a number of factors, stakes, villain, board etc. Sometimes a value bet is good, sometimes I like to shove away. Maybe some examples would be good to further this discussion?

[jonyy6788]

An example of some missed EV on my part....Villain was a lag, could have had a straight, any 4, or overpair. If I was thinking in terms of EV I would have reraised to about $25 ($21.5 raise) expecting a call `~33% of the time (EV of $7.10) versus my raise of $7.5 which I expected to be called about 75% (EV of $5.63)

Looking back at my PT HH's I fall under the results oriented category a lot of the time. I have yet to come across some really nice hands on the river (like boat vs flush) in my NL50 6max experience (11k hands).

As stated earlier by myself and another poster, the size of the bet is really dependent on your opponenet and what you think they have (the texture of the board/betting should give you an idea).

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB ($72.35)
BB ($25.25)
UTG ($53.70)
Hero ($48.50)
Button ($93.95)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/diamond.gif, 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/heart.gif.
[color=#CC3333]UTG raises to $1.25</font>, Hero calls $1.25, [color=#666666]3 folds</font>.

Flop: ($3.25) 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/diamond.gif, 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/spade.gif, 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/club.gif [color=#0000FF](2 players)</font>
[color=#CC3333]UTG bets $1</font>, [color=#CC3333]Hero raises to $4</font>, UTG calls $3.

Turn: ($11.25) 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/diamond.gif [color=#0000FF](2 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero checks.

River: ($11.25) 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/spade.gif [color=#0000FF](2 players)</font>
[color=#CC3333]UTG bets $3.5</font>, [color=#CC3333]Hero raises to $11</font>, UTG calls $7.50.

Final Pot: $33.25

Results in white below: [color=#FFFFFF]
UTG has 4h 5d (three of a kind, fours).
Hero has 8d 8h (full house, eights full of fours).
Outcome: Hero wins $33.25. </font>

[xwillience]

[ QUOTE ]
Aggressively value betting gets my write-in vote.

[/ QUOTE ]


maybe you do get wiser with age.... /images/graemlins/grin.gif