$50NL: Laying down QQ on the flop

[OHFreak]

8th hand at the table and villain has done nothing unusual.

Standard or too weak?

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $20.35
UTG+1: $40.60
CO: $17.75
Button: $90.75
Hero: $54.05
BB: $49.75

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is SB with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q/images/graemlins/club.gif
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises to $1.5</font>, 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $6</font>, BB folds, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: T/images/graemlins/heart.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($12.5, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $9</font>, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises all-in $34.6</font>, Hero folds.
Uncalled bets: $25.6 returned to UTG+1.

Results:
Final pot: $30.5

[xwillience]

looks good to me.

[PietM]

Really? Couldn't this be AJ, or a flush/straight draw?

[absoludicrous]

[ QUOTE ]
looks good to me.

[/ QUOTE ]


I'm calling. Why? 99.9% of villains are mini-raising with a set in this spot. I think our hand is good, and wouldn't be surprised to see a big draw or a jack here.

[xwillience]

this is not AJ often enough for this to be profitable. without a read suggesting otherwise, we have to assume that most villains will fold AJ to a big reraise preflop.

I did consider that this could be A/images/graemlins/heart.gifK/images/graemlins/heart.gif but even then we are only 44% to win the hand. So while we are ahead right now we have a very good chance at getting drawn out on, and while the call may be profitable vs AK its just as likely villian has AA/KK/JJ/TT.

Im more inclined to call if the flop hadnt brought the J and T. but seeing as it did, we are behind everything else. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[wake_up]

If we make villain's range 44,TT+,TJ,KQ,AJ,AhQh,AhKh which is probably about right, you're a 62:38 dog. You'd be calling $25.60 to potentially win a $81.70 pot, so you're getting odds assuming that range is accurate. But alot of SSNL villains aren't tricky enough to push with draws so I think we can 'weight' a set to be more likely than a draw, making it pretty close. I'd probably fold unless I'm on tilt /images/graemlins/smile.gif

-------------------------------------------------------
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

52,470 games 0.016 secs 3,279,375 games/sec

Board: Jh Th 4s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 38.3181 % 37.23% 01.09% { QcQd }
Hand 2: 61.6819 % 60.59% 01.09% { TT+, 44, AhKh, AhQh, AJs, KQs, JTs, AJo, KQo, JTo }


---

[xwillience]

wake up....


id remove 44/JT/KQ/and probably AJ from his range leaving something like this:

Board: Jh Th 4c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 83.6869 % 81.37% 02.32% { TT+, AhKh, AhQh }
Hand 2: 16.3131 % 14.00% 02.32% { QcQd }

[absoludicrous]

Your avg donk isn't pushing with a set here. He's mini-raising. We HAVE to assume this villain sucks, and is a typical donk at these stakes, and is pushing with a large range of hands.

If villain went all in preflop would you call?

[OHFreak]

Because I didn't have a real firm read on the guy it's hard to assign him a range for raising from UTG+1. Perhaps relevant here also is that I'd shown down AA the 2nd hand at the table after getting it allin PF (against another AA, natch).

About all I was thinking about on this flop was TT and JJ being extremely likely with lower PPs probably not shoving with two overcards there. After the hand I gave AKhh a bit more credence but I dunno. And donks like me will certainly play something like JThh or 89hh to a reraise, wrongly or not (given our shallowness).

Folks don't ALWAYS 4-bet AA and KK, do they? And he has position to boot, perhaps making it more likely he'd just call the 3-bet PF.

Would a full-pot flop bet make villain's action more "pure" in this instance or is the issue really more about what action your avg. 50NL villain will take w/a set vs. an overpair vs. a draw?

[Heine]

even some poker tracker stats would help.

This looks like AA/KK to me.

I think i'm still callng but i need to have a good idea how he values TPTK.

I tend to call given the odds, no read (people tend to be stupid) and the fact he's only got 80bb

[ChipStorm]

Have to agree w/ Heine, a competent player could easily play AA/KK just like this: flat call the 3-bet preflop with position, then push the flop. I think this is close.

With villain somewhat shortstacked, your preflop reraise basically made the hand for stacks. While the pfr size looks fine, you probably make this easier if you make that raise a little larger, then pot a flop like this: one where you look to be ahead (no overs), but that's not completely dry. That way at least your pot odds on his push make it an easy call.