20NL 6m: big draw on turn

[Brian O'Nolan]

Villain is 42/4/0.8/150. He's called off a lot of weak hands- this is the first hand I've seen him show much aggression. I figure he has at least KK here and I don't have much FE, but I don't need much with this draw, right? Bet the flop/turn?



Prima Poker skin
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.20
6 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $12.85
UTG+1: $13.00
Hero: $33.33
Button: $73.37
SB: $11.70
BB: $11.80

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is CO with T/images/graemlins/spade.gif K/images/graemlins/spade.gif
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $0.8</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises to $1.4</font>, SB calls, BB folds, Hero calls.

Flop: J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif 6/images/graemlins/club.gif ($4.4, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">Button bets $4.15</font>, SB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($12.7, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">Button bets $12.4</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises all-in $27.78</font>.

[helloimcdog]

I think he could have JJ+ or maybe AQ here, a lot of times your screwed, you really dont have any fold equity either, its a tough spot, Ive been pushing in these spots lately and it hasnt really been working out so i think i might even fold

[Yaboosh]

I don't think you have any fold equity. You are just about a 2:1 dog against JJ+ and AQs and AQ. If this is villain's range, he is not going anywhere on the river. Just call. Pushing is a waste.

[jonyy6788]

This is a check/fold or push first to act in my opinion. It's very doubtful he's gonna fold for $15 more, but might fold if you push on $12.7 pot. You've got 15 legit outs and maybe 18 with K as a pair option. You're about 33% just as Yaboosh said. You're definitely short on pot odds here.

[Yaboosh]

I think if you are going to check/raise all in here, it is much better to open push the turn.

But as played, I think it is a call. I can't imagine the villain getting away from JJ+ or AQ on the river if we hit our runner flush or our straight.

[jonyy6788]

I just don't see a lot of +EV here. My mind isn't functioning well right now, but implied odds of calling the turn are about break even if we stack him on the river.

[Yaboosh]

No, we are 2:1 to win and it is 2:1 to call. We are stacking him at least 90%+ on the river I think, and so the other 15 gives us better than 3:1 implied odds.

[orange]

I would rather call the turn I think (open pushing on the river if I improve and c/f if not). I think you have 0 FE too, given the action. Flop is good, pf is fine too.

[jonyy6788]

Maybe I've gone mad, but pot+bet on turn=$25.1

$25.1x33%=$8.28 while Hero calls $12.4