$50NL 6max Tough Spot

[Speedlimits]

<font color="blue">There is no converter for Ultimate Bet so I tried to make it as presentable as possible.</font>
SOCK257 is at seat 0 with $34.55.
lazy_yogi is at seat 1 with $75.60.
xxomegaredxx is at seat 2 with $50.
Villian is at seat 3 with $73.85.
HERO is at seat 4 with $49.05.
superslowmo is at seat 5 with $122.55.
The button is at seat 0.

lazy_yogi posts the small blind of $.25.
xxomegaredxx posts the big blind of $.50.

SOCK257: -- --
lazy_yogi: -- --
xxomegaredxx: -- --
VILLIAN: -- --
HERO: Qs<font color="red">Ah</font>
superslowmo: -- --

<font color="blue">Up to this point I have been very aggressive and have not shown down many hands. No particular read on opponent, he seems weak though.</font>

Pre-flop:

VILLIAN raises to $1. HERO re-raises to $3.75.
superslowmo folds. SOCK257 folds. lazy_yogi
folds. xxomegaredxx folds. VILLIAN calls.

Flop (board: As 8s <font color="red">7h</font>):

VILLIAN bets $8. HERO calls.

Turn (board: As 8s <font color="red">7h</font> Ks):

VILLIAN bets $24.25. HERO goes all-in for
$37.30. VILLIAN calls.

<font color="blue">I pushed here because I did not put him on a flush. I knew I definitely had 9 outs to the nuts. Also my read on him was that he did not have a set because I did not see him leading with a set on the flop. Knowing all this information and that my hand might be good I believe pushing is the best option.</font>

River (board: As 8s <font color="red">7h</font> Ks <font color="red">8h</font>):

(no action in this round)




Showdown:<font color="white">

HERO shows Qs Ah.
HERO has Ah As 8s Ks 8h: two pair, aces and eights.
VILLIAN shows Kh Ac.
VILLIAN has Kh Ac As 8s Ks: two pair, aces and kings.


Hand #35085691-21123 Summary:

$3 is raked from a pot of $98.85.
johnvette wins $95.85 with two pair, aces and kings. </font> </font>

[the_muppeteer]

I would fear the AK on the flop, and definitly on the turn. What kind of hands would he raise from UTG, and then call a reraise?

Call the turn, he already had to much invested in the pot to fold your raise if he had a hand. That way you can get away from the hand on the river.

And 9 outs on the turn isnt as good as it sounds..

[Speedlimits]

[ QUOTE ]
I would fear the AK on the flop, and definitly on the turn. What kind of hands would he raise from UTG, and then call a reraise?

Call the turn, he already had to much invested in the pot to fold your raise if he had a hand. That way you can get away from the hand on the river.

And 9 outs on the turn isnt as good as it sounds..

[/ QUOTE ]

If I call the turn I'm calling the river. $25 for a turn bet only to fold for $10 more into a $100 pot doesn't seem like a good trade off.

People we're calling my raises with 84suited at this table.

[the_muppeteer]

Yeah, ok, push or fold the turn, thats ok. (Misread your HH and thought you raised more on the turn. Sorry)

Sure they call your bets with 84s, but would they call a reraise, then bet out in front on both the flop and the. turn. Either his bluffing, or he has you beat. Remember, you only have top pair, if he play all sort of hands he could have 78, A7 or A8, all of them would crush you.

And if they had K7, or K8 and hit their kicker on the flop, they still had you.

I know a lot of muppets tries to bluff you out of a pot at 50NL, and I often do the same thing as you did here, but its better to wait for a more solid hand.

[morphball]

If Villian seems weak, I think you should be folding to the $8 flop bet or raising.

I am not overly thrilled with AQo hands either, which seems to me all the more reason to play it straightforward.

[Redd]

I think I like the whole hand. Raising the flop gives us a chance to scare him off of worse aces/donkbets from PPs. We can't get away on the turn with a &gt;50% chance of being best (IMO) and ton of outs when we're behind to boot. He's not folding to a turn raise but we might as well get it in now with our equity.


[ QUOTE ]
I would fear the AK on the flop, and definitly on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW, I fear the AK less on the turn than the flop since there's now only 6 combos out there instead of 8.

[Speedlimits]

[ QUOTE ]
If Villian seems weak, I think you should be folding to the $8 flop bet or raising.

I am not overly thrilled with AQo hands either, which seems to me all the more reason to play it straightforward.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well he min-raised it pre flop so I am either going to raise or fold I'm not just calling. I am aggressive so I raised it.

I just called on the flop because I put him on a hand like A10,AJ, and I wanted to get value out of it.

Also the King of Spades is one of the worst cards in the deck for me since it gives me a draw to the nuts but him 2 pair.

You fold to the turn bet?

[Speedlimits]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I like the whole hand. Raising the flop gives us a chance to scare him off of worse aces/donkbets from PPs. We can't get away on the turn with a &gt;50% chance of being best (IMO) and ton of outs when we're behind to boot. He's not folding to a turn raise but we might as well get it in now with our equity.


[ QUOTE ]
I would fear the AK on the flop, and definitly on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW, I fear the AK less on the turn than the flop since there's now only 6 combos out there instead of 8.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I really didn't put him on AK at all. When the 8 came on the river I was expecting a split. I do think the Villian played the hand perfectly (except for the pre flop min-raise I hate that).

But I also think I took the most EV+ route as well. Any more analysis is appreciated.

[the_muppeteer]

Yeah I would fold the turn, it was what, 23.75 in the pot, he bets 24.25, giving you about 2:1 potodds, you had about 5:1 to make your flush.
If I was fairly sure I had the best hand I would of course not fold, since you had more outs to improve your hand then he would have.

If you think he would bet in front at the flop and turn with nada/weak ace your play was fine.

Why do you post HH if you know you did everything perfect btw?

[Speedlimits]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah I would fold the turn, it was what, 23.75 in the pot, he bets 24.25, giving you about 2:1 potodds, you had about 5:1 to make your flush.
If I was fairly sure I had the best hand I would of course not fold, since you had more outs to improve your hand then he would have.

If you think he would bet in front at the flop and turn with nada/weak ace your play was fine.

Why do you post HH if you know you did everything perfect btw?

[/ QUOTE ]

Just because I think I played it well doesn't mean I can't listen to other's opinions.

Also flush is 4:1 not 5:1. And it is to the nuts so that makes it more valuable.

I can definitely see an argument for folding the turn but I think pushing is slightly more EV.

[the_muppeteer]

my bad, I usually think 1/5 instead of 4:1, europian and all /images/graemlins/wink.gif

Yeah, on this level you couldve had him beaten all the way preflop-river. And it is nice seeing that spade hitting.
Just saying I wouldve folded /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[morphball]

[ QUOTE ]
Well he min-raised it pre flop so I am either going to raise or fold I'm not just calling. I am aggressive so I raised it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seems fine to me...

[ QUOTE ]
I just called on the flop because I put him on a hand like A10,AJ, and I wanted to get value out of it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's where you're losing me. Your read is he's weak, and he bet the pot or close to it. If you raise that, and he calls with AT or AJ, then you'll get plenty of value. Plus there is the chance that you can push him off AK here or on the turn, (if he's weak and checks).

If he comes over the top, you can let it go.

As played and with your read of "weak", I fold this turn personally. Frankly, and with no disrespect intended, this seems like an obvious fold to me. (And, I could not fault you at all for folding the flop, especially since you're stack size is awkawrd if you raise or call.) In a lot of ways, folding to his obvious strength will give you more value later in the game as he may be "encouraged" to try push you off of future hands later in the game where you will you stack him.

Proviso - I am taking "weak" to mean afraid of playing weaker hands aggressivley, I guess if "weak" means plays TPPK or worse too strongly, then I obviously like your line...