25NL - 3bet holding AKo

[hummusx]

For some reason PAHUD is flaking out so I have no idea what this guys starts are. I'd seen him in some pots, but I honestly don't know if he was more aggressive than he should be.

The really weak re-raise screamed strength to me.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($16.40)
UTG ($7.35)
UTG+1 ($4.65)
MP1 ($24.95)
MP2 ($23.80)
CO ($25.40)
Hero ($31.10)
SB ($27.80)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to $1.5</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $6</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to $10.5</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $16.85

[Art Vandalay]

At least call him here. You've put $6 in the pot already and it's only $4.5 more to see a flop. If you hit the A you're probably going to be ahead.

[hummusx]

I folded precisely because I thought he had either AA or KK and if an A or K hits on the flop I have no idea where I am.

[sigurrostyp]

[ QUOTE ]
I folded precisely because I thought he had either AA or KK and if an A or K hits on the flop I have no idea where I am.

[/ QUOTE ]
As played you have to at least call... People are bad and do this with a wide range of hands you simply cannot fold here. So ok you call and the flop comes Axx or Kxx you can reevalute the situation and decide whether to play or not from seeing how much they bet.

[hummusx]

Sorry, I'm not really getting it. If I don't believe a weak re-raise like this means what I think it means, what exactly am I going to believe about the flop bet? And if I am calling off 40% of my stack PF with AKo, what exactly flop am I hoping for? I think deciding what to do on the flop based on his bet size seems silly.

[Art Vandalay]

I'm not a very mathematical player, but common sense tells me that it is very rare for the case A to hit on the flop when you're holding AK and villain has AA. When the A hits on the flop, you're going to be ahead most of the time. Granted, when the K hits it's harder to play than when an A does, but you can't pigeon hole an unknown villain on only the top two starting hands.

[hummusx]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not a very mathematical player, but common sense tells me that it is very rare for the case A to hit on the flop when you're holding AK and villain has AA. When the A hits on the flop, you're going to be ahead most of the time. Granted, when the K hits it's harder to play than when an A does, but you can't pigeon hole an unknown villain on only the top two starting hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

I partially agree. I can't say for SURE that he has AA or KK, but I think there's a pretty good chance. So maybe 1/2 the time that an A or K hits, he has AA or KK and I'm screwed. That only happens 1/3 of the time. The other 2/3 of the time, when neither an A or K hit, where does that leave me? I can't make any kind of bet other than all in. What am I ahead of in that case? Certainly this could be QQ or JJ or TT and if an A or K didn't hit, I'm way behind now.

I'm not trying to be difficult, I just want to be convinced.

[pokerchap]

I fold in this situation. AA/KK is too likely and if you an A/K on the flop you will probably get into a lot of trouble.

[orange]

Fold in this spot. Players at 25nl FR will not be 3-betting here with stuff that you beat typically.