Do you think USA will have regulated online poker in 5 years?

[aflaba]

How big(%) do you think the chance is that USA will have regulated online poker in 5 years?

Just curious what to think of the future of online poker...

[roxtar]

I think that depends totally on our ability as a group to organize and get up enough money to pay for effective access to our legislators in order to get it done (as sick an idea as that may seem). I put it at about 35-40%

[Shoe]

I think it will be within 1-2 years. Harrah's and other land-based casino companies are now foaming at the mouth to get into the online market. They also give First and Kyl & company good money. I think this is their plan.

1. Shut down online gambling (pre-emptive strike on the competition).
2. Legalize and regulate online gambling for American companies.
3. Profit big time.

[Synergistic Explosions]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it will be within 1-2 years. Harrah's and other land-based casino companies are now foaming at the mouth to get into the online market. They also give First and Kyl & company good money. I think this is their plan.

1. Shut down online gambling (pre-emptive strike on the competition).
2. Legalize and regulate online gambling for American companies.
3. Profit big time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree mostly with your synopsis. I just hope they don't allow stupid casino games like slots and video poker etc. Those really are the big problem with compulsive gamblers online.

[idmtchris]

This is simple politics. If the big gaming companies start pumping money into the pockets of politicians it could easily happen in a few years. I think it will take a Democratic Senate and Congress, but we might see that this next election. We really need the Steve Wynn's of this industry to start working it, they need to hire the lobbiests and start pumping the cash.

[CaseS87]

It certainly won't happen befoe the '08 presidential election.

[ASD99]

i think it is close to 90%...mainly bc of the sites and powerful people that are against this bill including banks, other countries etc...most importantly the US will realize how inaffective this bill will become just like prohibition and how much money they can gain from taxing and regulating it=legalization in the near future.

[malo]

Like Shoe, if you are looking at within five years, 90% chance of it happening. And a so-so chance it could happen in 2-3 years. As others have said, there is too much money to be made, and the big US gaming corporations want their piece of the pie.

My greatest fear is that Harrah's, etc., will rake online the way they do B&M games. And just guessing, but after perhaps a few initial offers, bonuses will be few and far between, and unmentionable will be unavailable.

[Squarehoop1]

I agree with this post, a lack of combination, added tax, and registration fees for the casinos is going to drive the price up significantly.

[scorer]

No, i dont think you will see this. The only way would be if there is an expansion of casino based poker that went online. I don't think the USA is looking to broaden the gambling within the states. Part of the reason for this move was to in there eyes, reduce underage gambling and gamblers who gamble away there savings to destroy lives. I think they view this law as helping keep families together etc. Wouldnt the lotteries then be in competition with there aid to education??

[Nietzsche]

[ QUOTE ]
i think it is close to 90%...mainly bc of the sites and powerful people that are against this bill including banks

[/ QUOTE ]
They voiced their opinion and it didn't stop the bill.

[ QUOTE ]
other countries etc...

[/ QUOTE ]
Since when did the US care about other countries opinions?

I think you guys are being too optimistic.

[TheMathProf]

[ QUOTE ]
My greatest fear is that Harrah's, etc., will rake online the way they do B&M games. And just guessing, but after perhaps a few initial offers, bonuses will be few and far between, and unmentionable will be unavailable.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure about this. Keeping in mind the rates for their hotel if you spend X amount of time at the tables or other ways you can theoretically be comped (it hasn't happened much to me, but I'm also not a high-roller), and I could see bonuses as a way of motivating that same kind of action.

As to the original question, I'd say it is 80%. Mostly based on hopeful optimism than any other component.

[mpslg]

I think you guys are being way too optimistic. Gambling has always been left to the states. I don't think the feds will make online poker legal. If anything, you may have some states make it legal and residents of those states can play each other online. I can see it being like powerball where some states come together and make it legal. I don't see the federal government forcing Utah to accept online gambling. It just won't happen.

[Benholio]

I think it will be largely state-based, like B&M gambling is. So like, maybe Nevada companies will have an online gambling site, but it will only be for Nevada residents and other states that want to allow their residents to play at out-of-state online casinos.

There isn't going to be a switch flipped and suddenly all 50 states can play again, since it is up to each state how to handle gambling.

[Megenoita]

One thing no one can really contend with, is that if the poker community cared about poker in a capacity that in any way resembled our country's thirst for alcohol during Prohibition, poker would be legalized. But, we as a poker community don't care nearly that much.

[emptyshell]

15%

[disjunction]

I say 5%. The B&M casinos are delusional if they think they can put this genie back in the bottle.

[Petomane]

Where there's demand there's supply and 23 million American online players make it a huge business. I think this bill was a pre-emptive strike to get rid of the competition - horseracing, fantasy football and lotteries are still legal, so it's not as if the government is against gambling.

[Dennisa]

I believe it will be California to license first. The Brick and Mortar card clubs can no longer grow due to the moratorium on new licenses. That being said, state law also requires pots not to be raked, only time charges and fixed rake drop.

It comes down to if Larry Flint has the will to get online gambling taxed and regulated. I think the Socialist Legislature in California would love to spend the added tax money on some new pet project.

[Uglyowl]

[ QUOTE ]
One thing no one can really contend with, is that if the poker community cared about poker in a capacity that in any way resembled our country's thirst for alcohol during Prohibition, poker would be legalized. But, we as a poker community don't care nearly that much.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we really couldn't play right now, then there would be a bigger uproar. We just have less choices as of now.

[5thStreetHog]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think it will be within 1-2 years. Harrah's and other land-based casino companies are now foaming at the mouth to get into the online market. They also give First and Kyl & company good money. I think this is their plan.

1. Shut down online gambling (pre-emptive strike on the competition).
2. Legalize and regulate online gambling for American companies.
3. Profit big time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree mostly with your synopsis. I just hope they don't allow stupid casino games like slots and video poker etc. Those really are the big problem with compulsive gamblers online.

[/ QUOTE ]That comment bothered me.Seems to be the exact thought process and hypocracy that we have been fighting here.The selfish side of me would like to see a poker carve out,and obviously we all know that slots and video poker offer no chance at long term success.But there is a bigger issue here,personal freedom.

[solucky]

they close neteller within 6 month, 3-4-5-6 sites will screw there customers and dont pay there $$, than poker comes legal in the US and NO FISH trust the net

[Mroberts3]

[ QUOTE ]

I think the Socialist Legislature in California would love to spend the added tax money on some new pet project.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, you are totally right; already having no coal power plants in the most populous state (30% of US total is coal) and still trying to lower pollution emissions is unimportant. That stem cell thing we did, you know, possibly saving lives, totally bogus. Good thing 150 cells takes precedent over sick children. I wonder what "pet" project we'll think of next! Who knows, maybe we'll have the the best transit system in that nation... Wait! already did that too.

Why don't you go back to your pet projects like banning gay marriage, 1st amendment speech, or the separation of church and state?



Sorry, to the real topic at hand. I think that legal and regulated poker is an almost certainty eventually. 5 years is a bit of a rushed estimate though. It will take time for the demand to be so large the gov has no choice. Also, it depends on the effectiveness of the recent legislation.

[dikshit]

I reckon in 2 years time the UIGEA will cut the number of US players by 50% relative to those that would be playing in its absence. So partial success for the antigaming lobby, but Harrah's and the like would really like a piece of the action. In 5 years time they may be granted a 'privileged' restricted access dependent on state sensitivities. At the same time punitive legislation would be passed against any offshore sites.

[demon102]

100% in the long run, within 5 yrs though Id say maybe 70%. A lot of the world is embracing poker and we are becoming a global market. This will have a big impact in the long run as well as the demand and all the money involved in this business. There is no dought in my mind that it will be legal eventually but it might take some time. Id have to say look at Italy and what happened with there laws about online poker. America has so many more people that play poker that this law will just be like a boiling pot of water that boils over cuz \they put a cap on it.

[burningyen]

[ QUOTE ]
The selfish side of me would like to see a poker carve out,and obviously we all know that slots and video poker offer no chance at long term success.But there is a bigger issue here,personal freedom.

[/ QUOTE ]
Let's fight fights we can win.

[NorthDakota]

If the 23 Million estimate is Correct you'd have to feel that Regulation in the US is a virtual Lock.

But... If those 23 Million simply are content to play poker and jump around the roadblocks when they can and are not motivated to show strength in numbers. Internet poker will not be regulated in the U.S.

The effort shown thus far is not encouraging.

[WooIsMe]

[ QUOTE ]

It comes down to if Larry Flint has the will to get online gambling taxed and regulated. I think the Socialist Legislature in California would love to spend the added tax money on some new pet project.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a ridiculous scenario. No politician in California is going to embrace an initiative that is led by pornographer Larry Flynt. Any law that he would promote would make him the lightning rod for attacks from the left (women's rights activists) and right (organized religion).

Can you imagine an ad sponsored by Larry Flynt and the California Teacher's Association? What other group? Organizations would run away to avoid the association with him.

[5thStreetHog]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The selfish side of me would like to see a poker carve out,and obviously we all know that slots and video poker offer no chance at long term success.But there is a bigger issue here,personal freedom.

[/ QUOTE ]
Let's fight fights we can win.

[/ QUOTE ]Fair enough.But the reality is that there is only one fight.The majority of people who dont play poker will never understand that it is not gambling(in the same way slots and other games are)That being said,i was just stating that the real problem is the imposing of these so called "family values" and moral dogma`s upon others who have different standards.You want to use the logic i was replying to? Well congrats,because it just was applied in the recent legislation.Note the carve outs for horse racing and lotteries.Btw for the record,i would light of fire works if i woke up tommorrow and there was a carve out for poker!!!(My selfish side is large in this issue /images/graemlins/grin.gif)