Instafold Top set? Standard?

[kokiri]

~115BB stacks, $1 BB, 6 handed. Villain had been fairly tight and predictable. Comments on all streets welcome. Is this standard?

I open in MP with A /images/graemlins/diamond.gifA /images/graemlins/heart.gif to $4.
CO reraises to $12. Folded round. I flat call.

Flop: $25 A /images/graemlins/spade.gif J /images/graemlins/spade.gif 6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif
I bet $18, villain calls

Turn: $61 A /images/graemlins/spade.gif J /images/graemlins/spade.gif 6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif T /images/graemlins/spade.gif
I check call $25

River: $111 A /images/graemlins/spade.gif J /images/graemlins/spade.gif 6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif T /images/graemlins/spade.gif 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif
I check fold to $58 push

I call preflop rather than reraise which would obviously be simpler because villain is fairly straightforward postflop so I thought I could get more from him with a little disguise.

I mulled folding the turn but I figure I'm stacking him if the board pairs. River is a clear fold? Standard - teaches me just to pump the pot preflop and not try to get clever, kick myself and move to the next hand?

[pokerchap]

yeah, instafold. sorry.

[matrix]

standard once we get past preflop.

a 4flush board is one of the very few times I fold flopped top set.

Turn call is pretty close - pot is offering 3.44:1 and we need 3.6:1 to break even, as he has $58 behind assuming we get it all in on the river which seems very likely we are getting ~6:1 - but very rarely he has KQss here and we lose to the Royal. (It's much more likely he has KK or QQ tho with 1 spade)

tho you really ought to 4-bet preflop being OOP and everything.

[kabouter]

I would have pushed it preflop, he is willing to raise so I don't see him folding preflop.
Shouldn't this be in small stakes though?

[tomonbass]

Yeah you put yourself in a world of hurt just flat calling the reraise....

Id probably fold the turn here ...

[kokiri]

Preflop is like 80:20 rereraise: flat call, though right? or maybe 90:10.

[subzero]

[ QUOTE ]
I call preflop rather than reraise which would obviously be simpler because villain is fairly straightforward postflop so I thought I could get more from him with a little disguise.

[/ QUOTE ]
Push preflop. Villain re-raised, so he likes his hand. Get the money in the middle when you have the best of it. With AA, you want to get all-in preflop against one opponent. This was a good opportunity to do that.

[Wolfram]

[ QUOTE ]
With AA, you want to get all-in preflop against any number of opponents

[/ QUOTE ]
FYP

[rebuyboy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
With AA, you want to get all-in preflop against any number of opponents

[/ QUOTE ]
FYP

[/ QUOTE ]

Wrong.

Holdem Hi: 142506 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ac 1152 0.81 140837 98.83 517 0.36 0.010
Ad Ah 3004 2.11 138985 97.53 517 0.36 0.023
Kc Kd 30382 21.32 112123 78.68 1 0.00 0.213
Qc Jc 13108 9.20 129397 90.80 1 0.00 0.092
Td Th 21782 15.28 120723 84.71 1 0.00 0.153
9s 9h 18676 13.11 123829 86.89 1 0.00 0.131
8s 7s 18012 12.64 124493 87.36 1 0.00 0.126
6c 6h 12365 8.68 130140 91.32 1 0.00 0.087
5c 4c 7408 5.20 135097 94.80 1 0.00 0.052
3c 3d 9030 6.34 133475 93.66 1 0.00 0.063
2s 2d 7070 4.96 135435 95.04 1 0.00 0.050

[subzero]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
With AA, you want to get all-in preflop against any number of opponents

[/ QUOTE ]
FYP

[/ QUOTE ]
So you would rather get all-in preflop vs. 6 opponents instead of 1? Why?

[gimmetheloot]

RB, dont be facetious.(sp?)

I bet-fold turn kinda small, like 1/2 pot. c/f river UI.

[ama0330]

Rebuy, your calculations are purely based on the suits of the cards which you have used. In this one, particular individual and unique situation where the specific cards dealt are not to your favour, yeah aces aren't the mathematical favourite. So what.

4 bet preflop and bet more on the flop. As played I would consider a check raise on the turn as a last ditch effort seeing as the A/images/graemlins/spade.gif and the J/images/graemlins/spade.gif are on the board, which means he could well have a small pair with a /images/graemlins/spade.gif and read you for the K/images/graemlins/spade.gif or Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif or just higher /images/graemlins/spade.gif.

[evilempire]

guys the more opponents we have all-in with aces PF the more money we make BUT with TONS of variance.

[evilempire]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
With AA, you want to get all-in preflop against any number of opponents

[/ QUOTE ]
FYP

[/ QUOTE ]

Wrong.

Holdem Hi: 142506 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ac 1152 0.81 140837 98.83 517 0.36 0.010
Ad Ah 3004 2.11 138985 97.53 517 0.36 0.023
Kc Kd 30382 21.32 112123 78.68 1 0.00 0.213
Qc Jc 13108 9.20 129397 90.80 1 0.00 0.092
Td Th 21782 15.28 120723 84.71 1 0.00 0.153
9s 9h 18676 13.11 123829 86.89 1 0.00 0.131
8s 7s 18012 12.64 124493 87.36 1 0.00 0.126
6c 6h 12365 8.68 130140 91.32 1 0.00 0.087
5c 4c 7408 5.20 135097 94.80 1 0.00 0.052
3c 3d 9030 6.34 133475 93.66 1 0.00 0.063
2s 2d 7070 4.96 135435 95.04 1 0.00 0.050

[/ QUOTE ]


We might not be a favorite in this particular situation but WE ARE STILL +EV
(which is the most ridiculous situation ever, there are even 11 players, your post its totally invalid)

[4_2_it]

[ QUOTE ]
guys the more opponents we have all-in with aces PF the more money we make BUT with TONS of variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah. POSITIVE variance.

[ama0330]

You are playing 10 handed no limit and are in the BB. To your surprise, UTG pushes all in. Then UTG+1, then all the MP players, holy crap, it's PUSHED around to you! Everyone is all in for precisely 100BB. You look down and see... two jokers!! You're playing at a table where you have to decide what your cards are before the flop is dealt. So you push, table your jokers and say:

My jokers are:

a) AA
b) Any other hand

lol

nb 54 card deck no reads caveat caveat exception blah blah blah

[kyleparks]

if 6 people are all in ahead of me and im deep stacked with AA, and they have me covered, i fold. you are not winning.

[ama0330]

LOLLLLL


Edit: What hand would you call with?

[RAHZero]

[ QUOTE ]
if 6 people are all in ahead of me and im deep stacked with AA, and they have me covered, i fold. you are not winning.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol, I hope this isn't serious.

[Khaos4k]

[ QUOTE ]
if 6 people are all in ahead of me and im deep stacked with AA, and they have me covered, i fold. you are not winning.

[/ QUOTE ]

True, you won't win as often as heads up. But you only need to win 1/6 of the time to break even.

[kabouter]

sometimes that is ok for example in a tournament on the final table /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[EMc]

[ QUOTE ]
if 6 people are all in ahead of me and im deep stacked with AA, and they have me covered, i fold. you are not winning.

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you fold because someone has a gun to your head? Or because if you click yes a safe will fall on you? Otherwise, its wrong.

[kaz2107]

[ QUOTE ]
if 6 people are all in ahead of me and im deep stacked with AA, and they have me covered, i fold because i love giving away money

[/ QUOTE ]
FYP

[Wolfram]

[ QUOTE ]
So you would rather get all-in preflop vs. 6 opponents instead of 1? Why?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not what I said. I said any number of opponents. In the set 'any', 1 and 6 are both members, and I assigned neither any weight.

rebuyboy: lol at your post.

kyleparks: You have a lot to learn.

[Wolfram]

[ QUOTE ]
sometimes that is ok for example in a tournament on the final table

[/ QUOTE ]

It's also very good to fold aces in low-ball holdem

Let's just stick to the game that the forum is designated for.

[AshleyC]

[ QUOTE ]
RB, dont be facetious.(sp?)

I bet-fold turn kinda small, like 1/2 pot. c/f river UI.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this.

[Sir Winalot]

[ QUOTE ]
if 6 people are all in ahead of me and im deep stacked with AA, and they have me covered, i fold. you are not winning.

[/ QUOTE ]
Not winning? Try doing the math and see what happens..

[subzero]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So you would rather get all-in preflop vs. 6 opponents instead of 1? Why?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not what I said. I said any number of opponents. In the set 'any', 1 and 6 are both members, and I assigned neither any weight.

[/ QUOTE ]
I would never fold aces preflop in a cash game, ever. But we have read that big pairs don't like company. Against another pocket pair, AA is 80% to win. Against 9 other pocket pairs (not including AA /images/graemlins/tongue.gif), AA drops to 25% to win. So we raise, limit the field, and give our aces the best chance to win. What I didn't realize is that getting all-in preflop against 9 other players actually has a higher EV (assume 100BB stacks):

AA vs. KK
EV = 100 (.80) - 100 (.20)
= 60 BB

AA vs. 22-TT
EV = 900 (.25) - 100 (.75)
= 150

I haven't been all-in against 9 other players yet, but when I do I now know to be happy about it. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[ChipStorm]

kokiri, it's already been said, but you got yourself in this bind by flat calling preflop.

On the flop, lead for full pot. Any /images/graemlins/spade.gif is now drawing on you; you don't mind getting this over with quickly.

As played, you don't really know where you are on the turn. I lead for 2/3 and am done with the hand unless the river fills us up.

Edit:

rb, LOL.

ama, in that exact situation, I might assume all the broadways were taken, and choose 87s. OTOH, if all the broadways are taken, AA is looking pretty sweet.

[KurtSF]

[ QUOTE ]
~115BB stacks, $1 BB, 6 handed. Villain had been fairly
I mulled folding the turn but I figure I'm stacking him if the board pairs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think that's the case. If villian had Q/images/graemlins/spade.gifQ/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, say, he will be afraid of the K/images/graemlins/spade.gif. If he's a decent player and faces a shove on the river after the board pairs, he should be able to fold the nut flush. Read dependant, of course, but I don't think you can assume stacks in the middle here.

That said, the odds the pot are offering are really close to what you need, and on average you can probably get enough chips out of him on the river to make it worth it.

Re-raise pre, of course. Good fold on the end. Monster hand that sucks to lay down, but you just saved $58 by having that discipline.

[dashman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So you would rather get all-in preflop vs. 6 opponents instead of 1? Why?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not what I said. I said any number of opponents. In the set 'any', 1 and 6 are both members, and I assigned neither any weight.

[/ QUOTE ]
I would never fold aces preflop in a cash game, ever. But we have read that big pairs don't like company. Against another pocket pair, AA is 80% to win. Against 9 other pocket pairs (not including AA /images/graemlins/tongue.gif), AA drops to 25% to win. So we raise, limit the field, and give our aces the best chance to win. What I didn't realize is that getting all-in preflop against 9 other players actually has a higher EV (assume 100BB stacks):

AA vs. KK
EV = 100 (.80) - 100 (.20)
= 60 BB

AA vs. 22-TT
EV = 900 (.25) - 100 (.75)
= 150

I haven't been all-in against 9 other players yet, but when I do I now know to be happy about it. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Good stuff.....im looking for that community all in now.

[bmk67]

[ QUOTE ]
if 6 people are all in ahead of me and im deep stacked with AA, and they have me covered, i fold. you are not winning.

[/ QUOTE ]

In a cash game? While there are cases late in a tournament when you might be correct to muck aces, in a cash game, it is always +EV to get it all in preflop, Against any number of opponents, it is still +EV - the more opponents, the less +EV it is, but it is +EV nonetheless.

If your bankroll can't handle the variance of losing a your table stake going all in preflop with aces, you're playing over your roll.

Folding aces preflop in a cash game isn't weak tight, it's weak stupid.

[tomonbass]

Althought +EV in theory... isnt it avoidable variance If we can find a fold here....

When it gets to 4+ opponents although we are favorites we will probably lose... and I know that if you run it over and over quadazillion times in the long run you will be in profit etc...

But..

1. This isnt going to happen very often and....

2. Why the hell would you want your money in when you are probably going to lose....

[ChipStorm]

[ QUOTE ]
When it gets to 4+ opponents although we are favorites we will probably lose... and I know that if you run it over and over quadazillion times in the long run you will be in profit etc...

But..

1. This isnt going to happen very often and....

2. Why the hell would you want your money in when you are probably going to lose....

[/ QUOTE ]
In all seriousness and with only your betterment in mind, I must tell you that if you don't find your way out of this darkness, you will never win money at this game.

[hra146]

Its quite dark right there, I agree. Although those folding AA statements are crap I guess theres something you could add.

People saying that they "know they will win" but dont wanna take the variance "cause it takes bazillions of hands" prolly just underestimate the all-in %ages. If the AA won like 17% of the times (where it takes 16.66% to break even) many people would pass up on that situation. Making +EV moves at all ends isnt necessary if you have greater edges elsewhere.

BUT

against 5 other randomn hands the AA wins close to

50% of these tries.

Doing some "realistic" (lol) calculations with 5 hands of KK - 99 you will win

35 games out of a 100...

... so please... EITHER start, immediately, playing with me EXCLUSIVELY ... OR ... NEVER ... EVER fold AA pf against ANYONE and howmanyopponentsWHATEVER (Chuck Norris being the only exception).

Amen.