PTY NL50 6max: A CRAI on a paired board vs my 2PTK - hand range?

[Rastapopoulos]

First online session in 18 months so I'm quite rusty. Be nice! /images/graemlins/blush.gif

Villain is 26%/8.2%/0.48(PFAF) after 122 hands.
Didn't have that info at the time of the hand, and nevertheless it is quite shaky. The only thing I had was that he was not a complete Donk, but unsure about how much of a thinking player he really was.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

MP ($39.34)
CO ($19.64)
Hero ($61.84)
SB :Villain ($60.65)
BB ($50.61)
UTG ($24.03)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif. SB Villain posts a blind of $0.25.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls $0.50, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1.4</font>, SB (Villain) calls $1.15, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls $0.90.

Flop: ($4.70) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Villain checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets $3.03</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $8</font>, Villain raises $59.25 (All-In), CO folds,
Hero ??

Perhaps this is not that difficult of a decision, but I still am curious what other players on this level thinks, and on what range you being optimistic, pessimistic, and somewhere in between can put villain on.

Cheerio

[Green Kool Aid]

I fold this preflop, but if you are going to raise, I like making it 2.25 or so.

On the flop, raise more, this hand is pretty vulnerable make it 12 or so. Folding to the 3-bet is the right play.

As for his range---TT, JJ, suited cards with a 5, overs with a flush draw, or some sort of straight flush draw.

[mooney]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold this preflop....

[/ QUOTE ]
Um... isn't folding a hand as strong as A9 on the button considered very weak play, especially at a 6 max table? I'm raising almost any ace here...

EDIT: nevermind.... thought he was on button.... definately just complete here. i even complete here with as strong of a hand as AJ. You dont want to be playing a raised pot OOP w/ a mediocre hand.

[JackAll]

Pf - make any raises pot sized.

Check behind flop. Why build a big pot with a marginal hand. And he has already paid too much for odds to his a draw.

I would fold his push - TPTK on 9 high board isn't the same a TPTK on J+ board. 99/TT/JJ are easily in his range, plus his AF is so low that any one pair I would toss (even AK TPTK) to a raise by him, especially given that flop action with 3 players.

[Antinome]

Hero makes it 2.25-2.50 to go OTB.

The reraise is nice, probably should have been a little bigger.

Villian Range-
Pessimistic: 45,56,A5,99
Donktastic: TT+, J4c
Optimistic: A9,KQc
Sexay:67c,78c

[Rastapopoulos]

[ QUOTE ]
EDIT: nevermind.... thought he was on button.... definately just complete here. i even complete here with as strong of a hand as AJ. You dont want to be playing a raised pot OOP w/ a mediocre hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
I was on the button.

[Rastapopoulos]

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Check behind flop. Why build a big pot with a marginal hand. And he has already paid too much for odds to his a draw.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm facing a bet. I can't check. Either call, raise, or fold.

[ QUOTE ]
I would fold his push - TPTK on 9 high board isn't the same a TPTK on J+ board. 99/TT/JJ are easily in his range, plus his AF is so low that any one pair I would toss (even AK TPTK) to a raise by him, especially given that flop action with 3 players.

[/ QUOTE ]
Forget about AF, data is too shaky. Wouldn't villain slowplay a boat? My first impression is some kind of draw.

[Rastapopoulos]

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Hero makes it 2.25-2.50 to go OTB.

[/ QUOTE ]
What do I want to be representing with that raise? a stronger kicker to my ace? JJ+? I agree with both you and previous poster, that bet is to low, but just curious. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[ QUOTE ]

Pessimistic: 45,56,A5,99
Donktastic: TT+, J4c
Optimistic: A9,KQc
Sexay:67c,78c

[/ QUOTE ]
Well put. The interesting thing is, if we would assign reasonable weights to his different holdings, would it give us equity to call? Btw Antinome, you fold here?

[carnivalhobo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hero makes it 2.25-2.50 to go OTB.

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What do I want to be representing with that raise? a stronger kicker to my ace? JJ+? I agree with both you and previous poster, that bet is to low, but just curious. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif



[/ QUOTE ]

you arent representign anything with your PFR, it should be the same size every time, 4bb +1/limper

[EMc]

This to me screams a strong draw most of the time, which you are flipping with. Holding the A clubs here Ill call.

[Antinome]

While I also strongly suspect that this is a strong draw, and that this is close to a flip much of the time, the strong probability that he has us completely crushed at least 15 percent of the time makes this a close fold.

Why 15%? -

x percent of the time he has us crushed.

(x)(-60 [we lose our stack])+((1-x)(1.50 [a guess at our EV when we 'flip'])=-9.4 [EV when we fold] =&gt; x=15%

If you can convince me that our read is better than that, or that our EV when flipping is more than 1.50, I'd reconsider.

[Vammakala]

Just remember that you're probably dog against XY of clubs where X &amp; Y &gt; 9. He has at least over+flushcards, maybe TT+ or a 5.

And I think you generally should fold this pf, unless the CO likes to limp+fold a lot. And what's with the preflop raise, make it 4 BB + 1 BB / limper, in this case 5 BB. You'll gain a lot of fold equity and set up a bluff on flop when you miss (remember that you usually do miss).

Also, I think the blinds shouldn't be calling station for this raise to be correct. The 3 BB raise is obnoxious since you'll always get a call from at least one of the blinds and as a consequence, from the original limper too. You have position in multiway pot with a marginal ace against bad players. Not too envyable position to be in.

But you're toast here against a combodraw. I dunno why your name is bold, but I'd assume that's because you called and got screwed in the a-hole? Even if your hand held up against overs + fd, you still were slight dog I believe.

I think you have to fold this 100% of the time against that low agg villain.

[ymu]

[ QUOTE ]
What do I want to be representing with that raise? a stronger kicker to my ace? JJ+? I agree with both you and previous poster, that bet is to low, but just curious. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif


[/ QUOTE ]
You're not representing anything with the raise except that you are claiming to have a stronger hand than the limper and the blinds and they're going to have to pay more if they want a shot at taking this pot down. You can do this with any two cards - just make sure you raise the same with 23o as you do with AA.

This could be a thin call but it depends on a read. His stats (low PFAF) lean it towards a fold, but it's not that helpful without an actual read. He may be a calling station when he thinks he might be ahead or has a draw (how often does he get past flop, turn or showdown/win at showdown?) but knows to raise sets/2 pair on a draw heavy board (what have you seen him raise before?), or he may raise his draws and "trap" with his strong hands. Does he raise TP when he "knows" you have AK?

Against an unknown with low AF, I fold this. I might call it against some low AF idiots (the type who win 4BB for a flopped FH and go broke with KTo on a T high flop in a raised pot).

[Rastapopoulos]

Hehe, you're deducting results from the hand by looking at the boldness of my name? /images/graemlins/wink.gif

Actually, I folded. In the heat of the moment, it was not an insta-fold, neither a difficult fold to make. Pretty easy in other words, by replaying the hand thus far and realizing that I didn't like my hand enough to make the call.

Just added it to my "homework assignments" and then started thinking more about the hand and decided to post it here, maybe someone would bash me a bit about it and I pick up something new. The position raising strategy wasn't new to me, but I had indeed forgotten about it during my away time.